Arsenal-Sunderland: FA Cup 3rd Round Match Preview, Predicted Line-up. Will Wenger

TotalArsenal

Rest, Rotate and Prioritize the League or Put Out a Strong Team as History Beckons?

We could probably put this question to both managers as they approach this one.

With League matches looming–Sunderland manager Sam Alardyce has been very critical of the decision to schedule a mid-week fixture directly after the 3rd round cup matches, and has suggested he’ll have to field a weakened team–we have to be careful here.  Is Alardyce playing mind games or playing the biggest mind game of them all: speaking the truth?

Do we need to worry about Sunderland–a team we rather squeaked by in the league just over a month ago–and couldn’t beat on our home ground last May–or do we assume Alardyce really does have bigger fish to fry?

Your guess is as good as mine.  What do you think?

Is this one a chance for youth or should we play our top guns to try and get the result as methodically as possible with steely eyes focused on Wednesday at Liverpool and Sunday at Stoke City?

Moreover, is the FA Cup a trophy we should give our all to defend or should we see those two consecutive triumphs as important moments for the team but also as stepping stones to bigger prizes?

I don’t know about you, but my tendency is to want to have it all, and, given that it’s struggling Sunderland–at home–I say we should play a reasonably strong team and try to win the match in convincing fashion, ideally getting in some youth prospects for the final half hour to shore things up.  I believe we have the squad depth to try this approach and the flexibility to respond to whatever situation arises as the match goes on.

Alardyce, I don’t think, has such latitude and, in fact, I believe he wants to make a strong point to the Football Association.  Also, as he’s coming off a solid league win over Aston Villa, he probably has as much wiggle room as a manager of a club in the relegation places will have until safety (or doom) is secured.  As much as some title-obsessed Gooners might wish for a quick exit from this competition, Black Cat supporters know that they need their resources fully focused if they hope to avoid another dramatic survival campaign.

Ah, the romance of the cup… 😀

Coming into the league match vs Sunderland on December 5th Arsenal was teetering. 

November had not been a kind month.  Losing at West Bromwich Albion and the injury to both Francis Coquelin and his replacement that day, Mikel Arteta, was followed a week later with a draw at Norwich and more injuries, this time to arguably more critical players, Alexis Sanchez and Santi Cazorla.  The squad was decimated and the season felt as if it hung in the balance.

Beating Sunderland on that day helped begin a remarkable comeback for the team, one which now finds us top of the Premier League table and still in the Champions League, albeit facing the most difficult of round of 16 opponents, the holders, Barcelona.

That match a month ago wasn’t easy, however, and plenty of Gooners must’ve been worried when we went to the half time break tied at 1-1.  Goals by Olivier Giroud–one in each net, had our season on a knife edge.  Luckily, 2nd half goals by Joel Campbell and Aaron Ramsey gave us some breathing room and the impetus to push forward from the November nadir.

Here’s the group Alardyce fielded that day:

Pantilimon, Coates, Kaboul, O’Shea, Toivonen, Van Aanholt, Yedlin, M’Vila, Fletcher, Watmore

Can he use a similar team?  Must he dig deeper into his squad?  He does have a few extra options who didn’t start that day.  Jermaine Defoe is fit this time, as is Lee Cattermole.  Adam Johnson, Jordi Gomez, Fabio Borini and Danny Graham are all well traveled attackers who, on their day, can put the ball in the net.  If Allardyce goes for youth, surely Jermaine Jens must feature.  When he says he must rotate to prioritize the league matches he might be giving some very hungry players just the opportunity they need.

What about our team?

The big team news is that Alexis Sanchez will not be ready for this one (and will also not be available for the midweek match at Anfield).  This might have been a great debut opportunity for new Gunner Mohammed Elneny, but his transfer from Basel FC has been held up over technicalities surrounding his work permit.  A player we appear to have back in the fold is our Captain, Mikel Arteta, who successfully came through a 45 minute outing with the Under 21s in midweek.

So, we do seem to have some options, especially considering we have no injuries among the defenders and goalkeepers.  How then does Wenger use his squad, keeping in mind the disastrous results too much rotation (particularly at the back) caused in the first couple of Champions League group games?

Notably, does David Ospina get another chance in goal?  It’s a very tough call as the Colombian needs some sort of first team football and has been linked with moves away from the club.  I think he will play as the last thing we need is an injury to our one big summer purchase, Petr Cech.

Cech is a big reason we’re top of the league. The other is the play of Mesut Ozil.  He’s another AW would be foolish to risk, at least as a starter.  Does he even suit up for this one and who will become the creative force in attack if he rests?

My hunch is that it’s got to be Aaron Ramsey, who will have to do his running-all-day best in the #10 spot.  Theo Walcott, I think, gets to start up top as he did quite successfully before he went down with a calf problem in late October.  My guess is that he’ll be flanked by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joel Campbell, I think, while Olivier Giroud gets a much deserved spot on the bench.  No full rest for the big man just in case we need goals.  Remember, a trip to Sunderland for a replay (if case of a draw) is probably our worst case scenario.

Who plays deeper back is anybody’s guess.

I’m calling for nearly complete rotation. My team has Calum Chambers and Arteta in the deep-lying midfield spots with Mathieu Debuchy given one last chance to show he can play–either for us or for the host of teams who seem willing to make him a starting right back.  Gabriel Paulista, who scored two matches ago vs Bournemouth comes in for the guy who rescued us a week ago, Laurent Koscielny.  Kieran Gibbs in for Nacho Monreal completes my group.

Subs: Cech, Koscielny, Monreal, Flamini, Reine-Adelaide, Iwobi, Giroud

That’s seven changes from the team which got past Newcastle a week ago in the driving rain.  Some would go even further, giving starts to Jeff Reine-Adelaide and/or Alex Iwobi.  Like I say, if we look comfortable, 20 minutes or even a half hour at the end might be a treat for one or both.   Others, of course, might be more conservative in their changes, especially at the back.

These are just my ideas and thoughts about how we might try and sneak through to the 4th round draw while still being well prepared for the league matches.  What say you?

Go on, please share.  And go on you Gunners!!!

by 17highburyterrace

110 thoughts on “Arsenal-Sunderland: FA Cup 3rd Round Match Preview, Predicted Line-up. Will Wenger”

  • Good preview 17ht,

    That is the most probable lineup, or we might see an unchanged lineup from our last game.

    Cheers,
    JK

  • Very good post 17 and I agree with virtually all of it.
    Get the job done, beat Sunderland and then worry about the EPL games…
    Agree with your team. Win the tie then give the youngsters a run out.
    I’d like to see Willock on the bench.
    And we really don’t need a replay.

  • I like this preview HT. Your line up looks very probable and it is no mean team for FA 3rd round. The beauty of it is that it rests 8 of our current X1. Of the three in our XI in the your line up only Ramsey’s should have a bit of a controversy to it.

    At the moment Ramsey is crucial to us in the double pivot role. Also he happens to be the only available viable cover to Ozil’s #10. However the return of Arteta, the imminent signing of Elneny, plus Rosicky back to full training in two days time, has made Ramsey’s inclusion easier to digest. If the match is going well for us I expect him to be the first to be replaced.

    100% with your line up.

  • Hi there HT. Excellent analysis and context as always. I think this looks like rotation too far however, and i would not be surprised to see that team over-run through the midfield and taken apart through set pieces. Wenger could put all his eggs in the PL basket and feel the FA cup is almost the same as the C cup – in which case this would be a reasonable risk. But I’m not convinced.

    Both managers will want a win – keep on winning, whatever the games, and the squad will grow in confidence. After a week of rest, we should be able to field more of our first 11. Kos and Ozil rested I would agree. And prob Gibbs in too. But I would start Cech and Bellerin. Giroud is 50:50, but prob on the bench I guess.

    If Rambo is moving forward then for me Flam needs to start, with either Arteta or Chambers. But starting both, esp with 4 changes in the back line seems asking for trouble.

    But wtfdik! COYG whatever!!

  • You might well be right with that line up, 17HT

    I reckon that AB is right that there is too much change but the midfield is strong enough. I hope we will rest Mesut but would not be surprised if Arsene plays him. My preferred line up:

    Bellerin – Koz – Gabby – Gibbsy
    ——-Chambers—-Arteta——–
    Theo—–Rambo——-Campbell
    ————-Ollie——————-

  • Happy New Year all! Struck down with the flu right at the beginning of the year but back now. Excellent line ups. The positives:

    1. More playing time for the merging Kos Gab partnership.
    2. More playing time for Chambers and Ox in their natural positions centre of midfield. They are inexperienced but plenty of potential there to form a partnership. Great to have that option if it works. Ox needs to be disciplined but his desire to play in the middle may help him with this.
    3. A good mix of experience with youth. Iwobi getting his chance from the start while Cech, Kos, Theo and Giroud can lead the younger ones on as well as help steady those with less game time e.g Gibbs & Gabby.

    COYGs!

  • ‘Morning fellas… I was pretty far off on this one…which, in fact, doesn’t surprise me… Also, it sounds like a late groin injury is what is keeping Ospina out… Full rests for Ozil, Flamini and the BFG…

    Is this one on the telly for you guys?…

    Arseanl: Cech, Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Gibbs, Chambers, Ox, Iwobi, Walcott, Campbell, Giroud Subs: Macey, Debuchy, Arteta, Ramsey, Monreal, Reine-Adélaïde, Willock.

    Sunderland: Pickford, van Aanholt, Cattermole, O’Shea, Lens, Graham, Toivonen, Coates, Fletcher, Yedlin, Watmore Subs: Mannone, Jones, Borini, Defoe, M’Vila, Mavrias, Beadling.

  • Hi HT thanks for the preview great writing. Erm not on terrestrial tv so likely it’s on one of the paid for channels BT sport or Murdoch’s Sky Sports.

  • 17ht. Sadly none of the Saturday 3pm kick offs are on TV in the UK on any channels. I think the rationale is to protect gate receipts

  • Cheers FMJ… Glad to hear you’re feeling better after being ill…

    I was wondering if I should try to do the live-blog thing… I’m not feeling wildly full of energy this morning but that’s what the espresso machine is there for… 😀

    Anybody?…

  • It appears Chambers and the Ox are the two deeper lying MFs…I’m not quite sure who is supposed to be our #10 today…

    Theo is dropping fairly deep and doesn’t seem attached to either wing…

  • 5th min: Yeah, it looks like Iwobi is our hub… He does some nice work with Giroud but eventually we’re pushed off it and Sunderland move it into our end but nothing comes of it…

  • 7th minute: Just trying to move it around at the back…Ball move seems a little slow…

    Iwobi gets it to Theo but his high angled shot is blocked at the point…

  • Sunderland have a little possession and win a throw off Bellerin…

    Iwobi breaks it up but our break dies at Giroud…

    Chambers does very well to ride a tackle then Ox and Giroud pass it from right to left for a Gibbs shot…Well saved by Pickford and Campbell’s corner is poor…

  • Consider me somewhat stunned that Iwobi is the guy in Ozil’s spot today… He cuts an interesting looking figure with the half lowered socks… It’s hard to imagine he can maintain this level of energy for the entire match…

    Sunderland are getting some of the ball but Yedlin’s cross is easily cut out…

    Bells and then the Ox stop a long pass down our right side… and then Bells does it again, heading out for a throw…Sunderland might be trying to target him…

  • That was NOT good… Gibbs did well to take the ball off Lens but then put Kos under pressure with the backpass… He likely expected him to put his boot through it but instead he tried some quick touches which didn’t come off…unless you’re a Sunderland supporter!!

    At our end, Iwobi does well but his high angled shot is saved for a corner… Gabby might have twisted his ankle in the pile-up fighting at the set piece…

  • I dunno FMJ…seemed like Gibbs gave the ball to Kos in a very bad spot on their goal…Seems to me like he should have been able to clear it himself…

    Rain falling harder now…

  • The third positive I mentioned of a good experience of experience with youth, does require the experienced ones to turn up which also means not to be over confident. Kos was at fault of over confidence, which often leads to ridiculous moments with this Arsenal team. Leaders need to step up. It’s a fine line that confidence thing.

  • 24th min: Sunderland pushing for a 2nd get it into a promising spot when Chambers is pushed off the ball. We manage to get it back and break their direction. They regroup and it ends as Ox passes straight to Pickford…

  • Yeh maybe I am being too harsh on Kos but you know if in doubt as a defender kick it out.

  • Wow!! That was nice…

    Iwobi finds Theo who then picks out JC in a great spot 10 yards out…And his finish is deliberate and very nice into the right hand corner…

  • Suppose I need to add in the fact it is rainy and slippery down there which couldn’t have helped him

  • I think if you see the replay Gibbs’ backpass just caught Kos very flatfooted while Lens could run to it for and nick it…

    Now Ox tries a shot from 20 yards but it’s well wide…

  • Campbell gets his head to it but Watmore is wrongly given a 2nd corner when Bells tackle goes off the Sunderland player… From it, however, Cattermole puts it into row Z…

  • It’s a very open game, with neither team able to control much in the center of the pitch…

    Fletcher now getting treatment…Should lead to some extra time being added…

  • Really good play carrying the ball from the Ox.. Walcott slows it down by cutting back inside again but also positive seeing Chambers taking up a right wing position when required..

  • His header from it is wide and weak and easily gathered by Pickford…

    We get it back but Theo is stymied on the left…and then Chambers loses it… Eventually Watmore’s nice cross is headed harmless to Cech…who gets us going quickly but we cannot quite get on the end of a break…

    In fact it’s all very end to end with lots of touches for both keepers…

  • We’ve got it in their end with a couple of corners… Theo’s first is so poor he takes the 2nd one short… Ox’s shot blocked at the poiint…

    We look dangerous but our moves have to happen quickly… There’s not much sustained possession and plenty of chances to nick it away as they did for the goal….

  • 3 mins ET

    Iwobi’s dribble is stopped but we keep the ball and try to build again…a few times…

    Wow… a lot of touches and tries in their box esp. from the Ox… Eventually Iwobi pokes it wide for a goal kick…

  • Enjoying the running commentary 17HT.
    DVR-ing AFC and watching a chippy affair between Doncaster v. Stoke (1-1).
    Should have been at least one red card, possibly 2. and a host of yellows.
    Just 2 yellows (one each) to this point.

    jw1

  • Sorry wifi died at 40mins then had to get some food.. Lets hope we can get a few more and keep it steady

  • It was a pretty good one but it missed everybody and Pickford was able to punch clear… Campbell got it back and did well to cross with his right foot…Kos thought bicycle kick but left it… Eventually Sunderland cleared it…

    Now we’re having some issues playing it out of the back…

  • Just returned from shopping trip with only a bit of radio commentary so really good to read the comments by 14 and 17 🙂

    Cheers guys 🙂

  • Better offensive pressure from Arsenal ends with Theo winning a corner on the right… and a 2nd which is taken short…

    We’re making better pressure now but Ox final ball still lacking…

  • Giroud wrestled off a long ball and he’s had a struggle for most of the afternoon…

    Ooooh… Ox shot just hits the post… Rebound falls to Theo but the put back is just past the other post…

    Cattermole off, M’vila on…

  • Wooah that’s what Ox can do so close great curling effort hitting the base of the post on the bounce. Unlucky Walcott on the quick fire follow up

  • Lens does really well to dribble the ball out and earn a foul from the Ox… Sunderland struggling in this half to generate much going forward…

    Oooohhh… spoke too soon…Yedlin gets past defenders and gets a cross in but it’s headed onto the crossbar… Huge let off there…

    Other end, we get into decent position but Iwobi’s shot is tame and gathered by Pickford…

  • Cheers TA. Ah big Ollie has been quiet but effective in opening up some space for others.

  • But in truth we have created mostly through our creative players around him rather than relying to heavily on his hold up play

  • Their header off the bar was a MASSIVE let off…but also against the run off play…

    We’re creating a lot of pressure but their young keeper has done well…

    Ref Atkinson is now using the whistle,the latest for a stray Iwobi arm (handball)…

    Sunderland FK lands on Fletcher’s head but it loops over…

  • Yeah, I agree about Ollie…he’s attracting a lot of defensive attention allowing chances for the others…

    66th min. More good pressure but the tight passes are broken up near the top of the box…

    Iwobi, who impressed as our #10 today is off for Rambo…Chambers off for Arteta…

  • Theo’s pass for our goal was really, really good, TA…

    Oooh, nice cross from Gibbs almost gets put in for Giroud but his foot misses by an inch or two…

  • Sunderland bringing big guys up for a FK…

    We need to see this out with some possession now….

    Ox goes on a good run after a bad M’vila pass but loses it…

    Watmore crosses to no one, bhowever…

    GIROUD!!!!

  • Wow!!

    Great ball forward from the Ox finds Bellerin in stride…He’s got Theo on the overlap but crosses just past a couple of retreating defenders for the easiest of taps in for Big Ollie…

    3-1 and this one is over…

  • How on earth was that not a penalty on Giroud?! .. and at the other end Cech saves a one on one

  • I guess ref saw it as a tangling of legs rather than a deliberate foul.. but not sure..

  • Campbell does very well but his 1-2 with the Ox gets broken up… We’re still pressing for more… The pen shout looked pretty stonewall… Theo did great work to set Ollie up for it, too…

    Bellerin, looking rampant with the self-pass but nobody’s in the box for his cross…

    Campbell off to strong applause, the Jeff is on with his first team debut….

  • Game should be settled by now but Sunderland still trying to get into our half and we are doing zero timewasting…

    Oooh good save by Pickford from Giroud’s header…The Jeff coming towards Ollie maybe dstracted the effort just a bit…

    Ollie and Rambo almost combine on a 1-2… Still pressing for more goals, I guess…

  • Good to hear we keep pressing and put on a show for the fans. Scoring three is great too as many clubs are not or hardly scoring today…

  • Still lots of energy in attack from Arsenal…with JRA and twice as old Arteta helping keep it down at their end…

    A very tame left footer from Ramsey dribbles to their young keeper…

    Still a few minutes to go…

  • TA, the game has been extremely open with both teams bypassing MF as quickly as they can…

    Sunderland should have done better there from a corner but it gets past everyone…

    Watmore almost breaks through our lines…Other end, JRA almost lofts in a nice pass…

    Now the Ox finds the Jeff with a good one but the keeper is quick to it…

  • I was at the last FA cup game we lost and it was one of the worst games I ever watched so I am really happy that the tempo was high and both team played to win…

  • Yeah, TA, Neither team wanted a replay, maybe?…

    We’re also very open at the rear of MF w/o CoCa, IMO at least… We definitely struggled working it through the middle but Iwobi did well in the spaces they gave him as they manhandled Giroud…

    Not bad but also not a blueprint for how we hope to play, I don’t think…

  • Plenty of bad calls and dives, but it is not unusual as big Sam always do that to us.

    Good game nevertheless and we played better when Rambo comes in. Ox is better but looks rusty. Campbell has a good game and it mattered most as we could not create much from the central area.

    Cheers,
    JK

  • Funny footage of Theo bringing a fan onto the pitch and jumping and bumping (butts) with him before giving him his shirt…

    In the end, a good time was had by all and it will seem like an easy win…Giving up that first goal wasn’t good nor the chance which might have giving them a 2-1 advantage…

    Bellerin’s pace down our right,again and again and again, finally turned things our way…

  • Got no idea what JK is talking about re:dives and all that… To me it just seemed extremely open and end to end with Sunderland doing well to key on big Ollie in the middle and make the wider options beat them… Pickford looks a good young keeper even with the 3 goals let in…

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