Arsenal Are on a Decline: Why We Need a Willian or Coutinho

20 thoughts on “Arsenal Are on a Decline: Why We Need a Willian or Coutinho”

• Super post, PB. Great research and use of stats and a compelling argument for getting a key passes/chances creator this (short summer). When we play 3-4-3 we do need two solid midfielders who can firstly defend and secondly add attacking prowess. The combo of xhaka and Ceballos has future and both have done very well in recent games. Who then should produce the key passes in addition to Ceballos and Xhaka? Where would Ozil or a similar replacement fit in? The only place I can see is one of the attackers. Auba is not an assist producer and neither is Laca, and I think that is the main problem. Pepe is getting better at this and there is hope he will be much better in his second PL season.

  I have always rated Willian as one of the best players in the PL. Love watching him and IF he were to come I can see him playing up-front and add tremendously to the key passes tally. So more from Pepe, more from Willian (hopefully) and more from central midfield would be a step forward. Coutinho? Not sure where he would play and whether he would be better than Ozil in helping out our defence/ fitting in with Arteta’s game plan.

  Key for me is that Xhaka can be convinced to stay, which I dont think is a given. Then we need to look who to play next to him. Ceballos is improving but we need to add bodies there, as an injury to either of them would hurt us. So that is where I would spend my money, especially if we can land the fantastic Willian as well.

• Fab post there PB – am busy working for the day so will have to try and comment later on if I can :-]

• Willian is indeed a fantastic player, TA, but he is a winger. The position where Arsenal has the most talent. Unless he reverts to AM he will compete for the RW position with Pepe, Nelson (and occasionally AMN); so
  – Arsenal’s record signing
  – the player with the (2nd) highest salary
  – and the most talented Academy player (IMHO)
  will be fighting for the same spot.
  I would rather make him an attacking midfielder (his secondary position according to https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/willian/profil/spieler/52769), or would prioritize Coutinho instead. And we can’t even move Pepe to LW, as we have Auba as the first choice player there along with Martinelli and Saka, who are not bad players either. I would not be really comfortable with having 6 world class (or soon to become World Class) in the squad. It will be quite difficult already to find minutes for Saka, as if Mari is fit and plays LCB and Tierney is playing LWB/LM then he should be fighting with Martinelli and Auba for the LW spot. It wasn’t an issue this year as Tierney arrived injured, Mari played 2 games altogether and Martinelli suffered a major injury himself, but this will be a problem next year (unless Tierney will inherit the LCB position – with Mari as his substitute – and Saka will play LWB/LM in the long run; but that will not be his ultimate wish, nor Tierney’s).

  Back to the front 3 – where we have seven top players already.
  If we were looking to incorporate an AM in the team, we should consider the 3-4-1-2 version of the 3-4-3 family, but instead of having 2 wingers we should have 2 central forwards.
  In fact, we can have 3 version of that. Assuming that the goalkeeper, the 3 CBs (Mari, Luiz, Saliba), the double pivot (Xhaka & Ceballos) and the AM (Özil/ESR/Coutinho/Willian) is given, than we might have
  – a defensive, counterattacking formation, with 2 wingbacks (Tierney, Bellerin) and 2 strikers (Lacazette, Nketiah)
  – a hardcore attacking formation with 2 wingers playing LM/RM (Saka, Nelson/AMN) along with our most lethal attacking duo of Auba and Laca
  – and a striker-less winger-extravaganza, where Tierney and Cedric would support Auba/Martinelli and Pepe/Willian who can run a lot, can operate on both the flanks and up front, even Coutinho could play a false 9 and score from long range.

• Wow!! PB that is an extraordinary post and takes some reading.
  It deserves of far more comments.

  You have an incredible ability of analyzing statistics, I’m also a supporter that relates to stats but in a very different way than your good self. it’s great to be on a blog that has so many varied blogger skills.

  I’ve maintained myriads of stats on Arsenal games – to a degree that I know who scored in every Arsenal game, but I never seen such in depth analysis as yours on a blog.

  Unfortunately I cannot offer any cogent comments to your wonderful post – as my mind works in a different manner.

  But I will offer these thoughts on our team.

  Personally I don’t think we need a big cheque book to improve our team as we have a fine mixture of youth and experienced players already – but a few astute signings in both defense and mid-field would certainly go a long way to rounding out the squad. If we lose Aubameyang it would be a crushing blow and to replace his skill and ability would be impossible, without him our path up the table will take longer. There are obvious misfits that have been sat out and they need to be sold to generate cash.

• thanks for the post, pb, and for all the details you provide us with. i don’t have much time right now, and i’ll try to post a more detailed answer asap. let’s just say that i’m far less enthusiastic about willian than yourself and ta.
  i’m not discussing the raw talent of the guy – who in his right mind would? – but lads … he’s 33!! after cech (33 when he signed up for the arsenal); luiz (33 when we gave him an extension), now willian? have we really become the chavs’ old people’s home? is that our/mikel’s ambition?
  as for coutinho, he’s a bit younger, and he sure is a brilliant player, but i agree with ta; his favoured position is not where we need reinforcement
  as i said, i’ll try to amplify this answer asap, out of respect for the work you put in, pb, but … am i the only one to smell a rat?
  four-year-deal to soares, even though we had osei-tutu/swanson willing and ready to back hector – not to mention the fact that we had also ainsley who, imo, is far, far superior to cedric
  but … cedric’s agent: joorabchian
  luiz’s extension, which i have just mentioned …
  luiz’s agent: joorabchian
  coutinho now
  his agent: joorabchian
  shall we talk about willian?
  his agent: joorabchian!!!
  well I don’t know about you, but such shady deals just set my teeth on edge – I’d very much like to know what arsène is thinking, at the moment
  at the very – very – least, should all of these deals be completed, we – arsenal members – should be given full, transparent information about the dough edu/raul/joorabchian will have pocketed after that
  lastly, I haven’t made the maths, but I guess that with all the cash we seem to be about to cast on 30+ players (if we add auba/mesut/papa to the list above), we sure could afford van de beek (my favourite player on your list, pb)

• Cheers PB, I see Willian as right for the right wing or indeed in the hole. He works hard and tracks back. Pepe can play anywhere in attack and I am expecting Auba to leave.

  3-4-3:

  Willian – Pepe/Laca – Auba/Saka

  4-2-1-3

  ————— Willian – – – – – – – – – –
  Pepe – – – – – – Laca ——— Auba/Saka

  There are many more combos but for me Willian would be a great addition.

• He will become 32 on Sunday, LeG. At least two good seasons in him and so experienced.

• The Soares deal looks questionable, LeG, I give you that. But time will tell. Luiz was a good move: we need his experience and leadership. Willian can help Pepe, Nelson and Saka in more than one way, so his inclusion makes sense to me…

• Willian is a double PL winner and we need such experience within the team.

• Thanks for your kind words, GN5.
  I have a calculation mayhem in my sleeves, but there is no rush, we have the whole August without competitive football.
  A absolutely agree with you that it is not about the check only to improve the team. We have young players – mostly in attack and central midfield, but I’m optimistic about our 19y goalkeepers too – and good, reliable players in the remaining positions. I think Luiz, Auba and Xhaka are great for leadership, but signing Rakitic for a low price couldn’t hurt. I would say that the last year on Özil’s contract could be enough to coach and mentor Emile Smith-Rowe, but apparently I’m the only one hoping that Mesut has a future here, even if it is only about a year. But if he leaves that creates a vacancy in attacking midfield. And I know that at the moment the 3-4-3 formation favored by Arteta doesn’t suit an AM, but I devoted this post to argue that – even though we managed to beat Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea without many key passes, but apart our pride for winning the FA Cup we lost or drew a handful of games that could have been easily won by Wenger or Emery, thus making the lack of attacking midfield a risky decision.

  I don’t know if selling Özil is a possibility or just a dream. Even for free his wages cost 18M a year (23M in US$). On the other hand, selling or gifting him frees up this amount. Or half of it if we sing someone for 175k a week.

• That was quite an effort PB, respect to you and well done mate but I’m afraid I’m not a modern stats person like GN5 either, maybe it’s a generational thing, so I’m not sure that I’m smart enough to decipher and add anything on that level, but I think someone like Willian could be beneficial because he fits what seems to be the player that Arteta likes a player that is versatile, a player who can fit different systems and be comfortable, a player who can adapt to Totaal Voetbal because that’s where this is coming from. From Ajax, from Cruyff, via Barcelona, to Pep Man City and Arteta and on towards Arsenal. It’s genetic, it has a life of its own but it needs players who are adaptable to different systems in games, so that Arteta can switch during matches, so you have Tierney all over the place, Maitland Niles down the flank then moving inside, Lacazette dropping into the No.10 linking Aubameyang and Pepe and the midfield but then spinning and getting into the box, the basics are there and once Arteta has upgraded a few positions we’ll fly…

  I have absolutely no concerns about where we’re going under Arteta and losing a few points from winning positions, well that happened to Pep and Klopp initially and they’ve not done too bad.

  So trust in what you see PB and how you feel about it, the rest will will take care of itself.

  14 FACup eh?

• Le Gall, you clearly have a point.
  When experienced players in their 30s feel that they cannot perform against the highest expectations any more, they usually spend their final (couple of) years in a lower division or a country with less extreme competition. This happened with most of the legends, including Iniesta, Henry, Raul, Klinsmann, Xavi, etc. (But there are notable exception including this blog’s godfather the majestic Bergkamp, as well as Shearer, Zidane, Giggs…)
  But generally speaking buying players of top clubs is not an honor. And might be an indicator of having a lower bar than these top clubs. Unless these players are actually capable to perform on the highest standards for 2 more years, and these clubs were either too snobbish to field them (or there were some authority conflict between the players and the coach/management).

  The past occasions are not fool-proof indicators of Willian’s case, but in my opinion Petr Cech was keeping Arsenal’s goal on a high level. He was clearly not on par with Oblak or Neuer, but he was not a step back to Szceszny or Ospina either, so he was on the ‘affordable quality’. Luiz was clearly our best defender this year (not to mention his impact on young players). And albeit a Mustafi-Sokratis CB pairing is a ticking bomb, both played at a very high level most of the time when they were ‘assigned’ to David. So signing the Brazilian was a masterstroke from Arsenal. And while anyone may say that him being the best defender in our ranks say more about the club than Luiz, I honestly think he is (still) clearly better than Zouma, Christensen and even Rüdiger. We bought Sokratis at age 30, and he had 2 good years in him (but probably is close to his expiration date).

  Regarding Kia Joorabchian, I don’t think he can be so influential to Edu, don Raul or Arteta to hijack our transfer activities. (But I have a tendency to be naive, I admit.) He is indeed the agent of Coutinho and Willian, but it is his duty to find an inspiring club that could reinvigorate Philippe’s career – and I can imagine that Arsenal is the perfect opportunitiy for him. Luiz belongs to a different agency (called Bertolucci Sports), and Soares didn’t have an agent at that time, so Kia helped out (probably not for free). But he is an EC winner with a lot of experience and Arteta seems to like him, so I’m still optimistic.
  You clearly have more faith in AMN than me. He occasionally has great games, but I couldn’t see him performing on a constantly high level neither under Wenger, nor under Emery. But Arteta has his ways to bring the best out of players, so never say never, but Cedric has some potential too. (I haven’t seen Osei-Tutu play, maybe we see him more next season. However he just transformed into a winger from a right back, so another loan deal or even selling him is also on the table. But I’m not optimistic about Swanson. He has no international call-ups, and while he had only his first year at U23 level, I don’t see him [yet] a prospect to the first team.) Anyway, we don’t need reinforcements in the full-back positions

• Hi Kev, here is a great piece on the cup final, and it basically agrees with you on Tierny, AMN and Auba: https://arseblog.com/2020/08/tactics-column-artetas-flexible-arsenal-win-record-14th-fa-cup/

  Regarding Pep and Klopp, they are vastly different managers. Maybe not from their preference for attacking play, but Guardiola always managed the best, most valuable and richest team of the league. He is a great coach and a great guy, but his aim was always to “keep staying ahead”. He never head to overtake the stronger teams in the division. On the other hand Klopp was always the #2 that challenges the champion. And he managed to do that both in the Bundesliga and in the PL. That’s a completely different mentality. He had to build a team for the future, and had to accept that his best players are often sold (Sahin, Kagawa, Götze, Lewandowski). At Liverpool he had limited constraints as well as more funds to break world transfer records for both goalkeeper and center backs, which unfortunately does not apply to Arsenal. But at least we have our academy…

• I feel extremely privileged in getting this to 14 comments :-]

  As said earlier a well researched piece and here’s to hoping we get Willian; Coutinho AND keep Ozil – totally bad business sense and logic but wow what talent to have at hand when you need a dearth of creativity which can never do with enough of (imho).

  If looking at previous terms with the likes of Rosciky; Santi; even Arteta,, it allowed the team to have that panache of style to be able to make a difference. If anyone can then coach a work ethic within that, it’s Arteta I feel 🤞

  If wanting a cheaper option to Partey, then Doucoure might not be half bad. I also think there’s a need for another striker, even if Auba stays – perhaps Josh King to add back up size and if available at a discount maybe?? 🤔

  Also wonder whether some funds might be raised by selling one of our excellent keepers at a premium ….

• Good point about need for an additional attacker, 5am. Something worthy of a separate post, I reckon. 🤗

• I have learnt recently that you should never focus on just one set of stats. Whilst it is absolutely true that we have created less chances under Arteta, it is not the whole story. Since the lockdown break for example we scored 23 and conceded 14 in all competitions, beating MC, Pool, Wolves, SU, Chelsea and Southampton – all PL top-12 teams – in the process. We drew with Leicester and lost to the Spuds. We may be producing less chances but we are also giving less away, yet with 1.8 goals per game scored and just over 1 goal per game conceded we are clearly much improving. So should we create much more chances or become even more efficient?

• I watched the post match discussion between Shearer, Cashley and Wrighty. Although i am still not a Cashley fan (and never will), i am in agreement with something that he said: which is that we need to bring in senior players to complement the young players so that we have a bit of stability.

  One or 2 more old heads to be brought in (or back) will be good.

• Thanks for that PB, that’s a really good piece, easy to follow, very clear and simple for luddites like me to decipher.

  I guess what I was trying to put over is the feeling you get as a supporter but it’s not easy to explain, in the words of Van Bruekelen ‘you can taste it’…

  When George Graham came to Arsenal, the club was in flux some would say disarray but it didn’t need a lot it just needed organising and direction. George knew what he wanted and what he didn’t want, out went the big time Charlies and into the team came the young players. He organised things got the team playing a pattern, got the best from Charlie Nicholas, Steve Williams, Viv Anderson, Kenny Sansom and revitalised Paul Davis, you could see it in the way the team played, the fans picked up on it immediately and there was a buzz at Highbury. There was a feeling that Arsenal meant business again, you just knew it, you felt it.

  The same applied when Arsene Wenger arrived, he did it a bit differently but there was a purpose, you can sense when the team has that something about it. Arsene created that and the fans knew.
  I had a strong feeling we were going to win the league in 1997/98, I felt it at Elland Road in our first game, a 2-2 draw but the team was rocking, we could feel it.

  It didn’t happen under Emery despite the winning run, the cup final, you wanted it to be but it just didn’t feel right.

  Even under Freddie, we wanted him to succeed, he was an Arsenal icon, he had BFG next to him, but, it just didn’t feel right.

  But with Arteta I felt it almost straight away, even after we lost to Chelsea at the beginning, it’s there, that something that you can’t put your finger on but it was there when we lost to Man City, it was there when we beat Wolves, it was there when we beat Sheffield Utd and when we lost to the Spuds. I wouldn’t exchange our manager for anyone else out there and I mean that, my only concern is keeping him…

• Thanks for a great post.

  I have no doubt that Arteta is fully aware of this problem, which he has already confirmed, that we have little or no creativity.

  I suspect that his priority since the restart has been to sort out the problems in Defence and that he has decided to do that at the expense of creativity.

  Whether he has succeeded in working it out remains to be seen next season.

  Whilst there does seem to be an element of ill will with regard to the exclusion of Guendouzi, I detect none with regard to Ozil.

  There may be other reasons why he is not playing that everyone is keeping to themselves, but certainly, we could not expect to have even moderately successful season from September unless and until the creativity is substantially increased, either at the expense of the defence or the attack.

• New Post 🙂

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