How important is it to have absolute top players in most positions?
If you started to read this post only because you are intrigued by this question, I can save you some time. I don’t know. Moreover, I’m not sure that this post will bring us closer to the answer. However, the following season hopefully will.
I will try to analyze the current squad by positions, to see how far our strongest XI is behind the absolute elite. And I’m not talking about the top teams here, but the very best players in each position. For the sake of simplification, I will call the 1-3 players elite, the 4-10 world class, and the 11-25 as top players.
A final disclaimer: this is not a fact-sharing post. You’ll read merely my opinion on our first choice players in comparison with their peers, but that’s inevitably subjective. I’ll do my best to refrain from being partial or prejudicial, and even if I’m biased, it is probably in favor of the player. Nevertheless it’s perfectly right if you have a different evaluation, and don’t hesitate to challenge my assessments. (Update after reading the post: I was probably more often hard on players than generous. Be kind in the comments.)
Before we jump into the task, think with me a bit. When did Arsenal have someone from the absolute top 3 players in any position in their ranks? Did we ever? Obviously Thierry Henry was one, and in this blog I suspect we can grant this award to our non-flying Dutchman as well. But was Pires or Ljungberg a top 3 winger? I don’t think so. There were players like Ronaldinho, Figo or the young CR7 there. Maybe Vieira was top 3 at his peak, but Fabregas had strong competition from Scholes, Schweinsteiger, Gerrard, Xavi, Lampard and others. Furthermore, I don’t think RvP was top 3 either (Rooney, Drogba, Müller, Eto’o), nor was Aubameyang (Benzema, Lewandowski, Kane, Morata, Firmino, old CR7). I believe the first and only time Arsenal had a top 3 player in the team since Henry was Alexis Sanchez (and it didn’t turn out too well, either).
So I’m not saying it is a must to have a few elite players in the team in order to win silverware (see Leicester) or Champions League (see Marseilles, Porto, Inter). It’s not a disadvantage though, but even top teams don’t (can’t) have top3 players in all positions. Maybe a couple, and the rest of the starting XI can consist of ‘only’ world class players and some others from the top.
Yes, I picked this topic up, because I’m convinced that next season we will have an elite player in our squad. (Again, it is not suitable to compare teammates from different positions, but a certain player with the best athletes from his own position.) To save you the suspense: he is going to be Declan Rice.
But fortunately – spoiler alert – we are so well equipped with world class players all over the squad that I believe we have plenty of chances to collect 90 points in the PL and reach the semi-final in the CL and domestic cups. At the very least.
Let’s start from striker towards goalkeeper. Gabriel Jesus is one of the tricky customers. I’m not entirely sure whether he is a world class (4-10) forward, or only top (11-25), he qualifies for both assertions. Next season will help us decide. Jesus is not elite (Haaland, Mbappé, Osimhen, Kane), but he doesn’t have to be. If he can play like he did at the beginning of the recent season, we are properly covered with the first choice striker, especially as Haaland and Mbappé are making around 1M/week. I don’t know nor care if they deserve it, this is not the direction we should move in my opinion.
Right wing. And the first controversial position. I will not be popular, but despite many of you may think that Bukayo Saka is the best RW in the world, I think he is not elite just yet. However, I expect him to become one in the next couple of years. Salah, Rodrygo, Messi, Mahrez are still ahead of him. Not more valuable, just better as of now. But 3 of them are above 30, so Saka will compete with Gnabry, Raphina, Diaby, Dembele and Rodrygo in the future to see who joins the elite.
At the left wing, it is easier. We all know that Martinelli is not yet elite (Vinicius Jr, Phoden, Rashford, Kvaratskhelia), but there is no doubt that he is already world class. However this group is balanced and a truly strong one with Leao, Grealish, Neymar, Diaz, Coman, Gakpo, Sterling, Son, Mudryk and Jota fighting for the 7 places in the category. (It’s possible that Trossard has his stake in the 11-25 positions, but the jury is still out.)
Attacking midfield. I hope I don’t get lynched, but at the moment I see Odegaard similar to Saka. He is a criminally good player still on the rise, but unfortunately not yet at the level of de Bruyne, Fernandes or Musiala, but already at the level of Maddison, Wirtz and Silva. You may accuse me of high expectations, but expect Martin to level up, and I plan to buy my second Arsenal jersey with his name on the back to provide company to my only Bergkamp shirt. Kai Havertz detto: he is also world class, no doubt about that. We’ll see how he can reinvent himself as an AM and/or B2B midfielder.
I already spoiled the defensive midfield: Declan Rice is the best player there along with Rodri. Tchouaméni, Fernandez, Kimmich and Caicedo are mighty fine players too, but simply below Declan. Thomas Partey was a top DM, but never close to the elite, and probably his world class days are also over.
We don’t really have central midfielders since Xhaka’s departure – who was probably never a world class player, but with his leadership, presence and off-pitch support he was one of the most valuable and most underappreciated individuals at the club – but we probably don’t need one. Against the few strong opponent, we can play in 4-2-3-1 with 2 DMs (I don’t find either Partey or Jorginho a liability paired with Rice) plus a single AM, and against regular or lesser teams we can play 4-1-4-1 with the insane attacking 4 of Martinelli-Havertz-Odegard-Saka right behind the striker. Would you be interested, I think the elite CMs all play in Spain: Pedri, Bellingam, de Jong and Valverde (Gavi).
The good news is that we have 2 world class center backs. According to TransferMarkt Gabriel Magalhães is only top (#14), but I think he is underestimated. I would love to say that Saliba is expected to become elite, but unfortunately, all the top defenders are 22-26 years old, so it will be a tough task to overtake Dias, Gvardiol, de Ligt or Militao. I have faith in William nevertheless. We don’t know yet where Timber will play, but based on his market price he is a top CB and a world class RB.
Regarding both Ben White and Oleksander Zinchenko I have the unpopular opinion that while at the first half of the season they seemed to be world class defenders, by the end of the season they were ‘only top players’ to me. Both of them are strong passers and expert at carrying the ball, so obviously suitable for Arteta’s style of football, but neither of them are good enough when it comes to crossing, and their defensive contributions – in terms of tackles and interceptions – are average at best. Neither of them are liabilities per se, but almost every major club have full backs of similar quality (James, Hakimi, TAA, Trippier, Cancelo, Porro, Frimpong, Pavard, Grimaldo, Davies, Mendes, Balde, Hernandez, Shaw, Robertson, Chilwell, Estupinan, Cucurella). Before being labelled as too harsh, I believe we are way ahead of City in full backs (their only left back, Gomez, isn’t even a top 25 guy, and on the right flank – with the expected departure of Cancelo and Walker – they won’t have quality players either, while we have a world class and 3 top players already). They will either invest heavily in these positions or will play with their non-starting CBs like Aké and Stones at the flanks.
Personally I would prefer to use Timber as starting RB and White as the defensive utility sub. And at left back we either have to turn up the competition among Zinchenko, Tomiyasu and Tierney (whom I hope will stay, but after several glimpses of brilliance he didn’t turn out to become the best LB in the PL, falsifying my predictions), or buy reinforcements there, as this is the only (?) position where I claim we don’t have even world class players at the moment. Thank god we didn’t sign Castagne, though.
I’m afraid I have to sign off on a controversial note. Many of you are surely familiar with CIES Football Observatory’s report on Ramsdale being the most valuable goalkeeper on the planet. Well, even though this was not obviously a sponsored content from Aaron’s agent, I have to respectfully disagree. There are not many shot-stoppers clearly better than Arsenal’s #1, but there are plenty who are not obviously worse either. I have nothing against Ramsdale, he is enthusiastic, he likes to play out from the back and he is capable of brilliant moments, but he does have the tendency to produce high profile errors signature to the club’s goalkeepers in the last decade. Is Aaron among the 10 best GKs of the world? Hell, based on last season I’m not sure if he is amongst the PL’s top 10. So, for me he is ‘only’ a top player, with plenty of potential to realize – starting with next season.
To summarize I think with the imminent arrival of Declan Rice we will have a enormously capable starting lineup (at 4-1-4-1) with a single elite marquee, 4-5 almost elite world class players, the same amount of ‘regular’ world class players without the pressuring expectation to become the very elite, and a handful of dependable, top guys, who can break into the world class category any time. Plus almost 10 success-hungry youngsters (academy unfortunately excluded) breathing down their necks, even though we will inevitably say goodby to at least a few of them. Looking at the €754M starting XI – that by itself is worth more than all other clubs bar 8 (TransferMarkt) – I am looking forward to the upcoming season with confidence.
I planned to share my further conclusions, but this post is really long and tiresome already. Let’s discuss your view on our players in the comments, and we can draw conclusions in a follow-up post next week.
Bergkampesque 
Suddenly Rice is better than Partey?.
Partey is a top top DM but for his injuries. Play double pivot of Partey and Rice and we’re done. Midfield of Rice and Joginho or Rice and Harvetz is not good enough
PB, Thank you so much for you post, I read it with the enthusiasm of a young man who wanted to learn more about his team. And oh boy I learned a lot more than I expected to.
Unfortunately PB I’m no longer able to debate with you as I no longer have the mind of my earlier self. These days I’m more of an avid supporter than I am a debater, my deep knowledge is still very much in tact but these days I prefer to watch and support and not debate.
Your knowledge is both refreshing and enjoyable to read, I hope that you get a lot of debaters as a post of this quality is most certainly deserving of an awakening here on BK.
Hi TA and everyone – happy summer. hope you are doing well and feeling warm but not roasted !
I suspect your assessment may be carrying a “new signing bounce“.😀 I don’t have much to disagree with the ratings. The team played some wonderful United football last year. I only hope that the new arrivals will end up amplifying this. All signs would suggest that Arteta is fully capable of ensuring this. So, keeping fingers crossed and eagerly looking forward to the season. The loss of our Physio and Steve Round have me a little concerned about impact. Here’s hoping that we have a normal season and not many/any long-term injuries and good replacements among the back room staff who are just as integral to the teams success. It will be good to revisit this topic at the end of the season to see if which of the players have gone from top to elite to world class.
I loved the post… almost every point has me in full agreement.
For example…. Saka is no Salah yet. Maybe he will be someday, but the big difference in pace will make it difficult.
What Saka has is different gifts in how he beats defenders, and a wicked shot. The only way he will become best in the world and score a lot more goals … is if Arteta let’s him interchange and get more central to face the goal (with Jesus moving to the right flank)… Look at his last hat trick for England. Amazing shot on him from there.
Gabriel is under rated and under appreciated as you said.
Rice is going to be even better than 105 million under Arteta. It’s the reason that he chose us over every other team. They all wanted him, and would have paid more salary than us. United, Chelsea, Man City.
Ødegaard definitely world class. DeBruyne has dominated the world’s best league for a decade, in the strongest team, so its unfair to compare the 2 right now.
He is also under appreciated by gooners online, but the fans voted him player of the season, and 2nd best the year before.
Every team in the world is jealous that we have Øde. PSG already informally offered 90m I hear.
He’s worth much more.
Timber will be inverted RB and White will be the defensive option there. White will back up Saliba which is super important to keep him fit.
Timber defensive stats are really not good, and they would be worse in the premier league. No way can he play that marauding CB that he did in Ajax.
Question for me is if Kiwior can do LB well enough to allow Tierney to leave. If we don’t sell him now, he’ll lose most of his value.. though i still love him. He deserves to be a key player for some team.
And Havertz… in midfield, if he can get back to Leverkusen form, he’ll be a world class player for us.
Yes excellent post, PB. Much to agree with.
Would I do a loan swap for a season with Liverpool between Salah and Saka? No, no, no. Saka is already world class. On the ball he is unpredictable, almost unstoppable and just so effective. There really is no better right winger in the PL. He goals and assists underline this.
MO is close, very close.
Big Gab has potential.
Tequila is a monster. Sole Campbell status.
Martinelli has huge potential.
Partey is top when fit but that wayward pass he always has in him.
Balogun has it all, but we have to see whether it will work out in the PL.
St Henry, good to hear from you. Glad you liked PBs post. And yes good point re revisiting this topic in ten months again. 🙂
Howard, I think Partey was – and maybe still is – a beast of a DM, but Rice is a unique generational talent. Like Watkins and Haaland. The former is a great player, most clubs would be happy to have him, but the latter is a different category.
Declan is an interception machine, played almost 5000 minutes last season, and his 10 goal contribution from DM is almost as impressive as Xhaka’s 14 from B2B. Both players collected only 7 yellow cards (demonstrating timely tackles and superior discipline), but Partey did it in 3200 minutes, less than 2/3 of Rice’s playing time.
You have a point though, that it could be a risk to play 4-3-3 with Rice, Havertz and Odegaard, when neither of them is a true central midfielder. But with the support of 2 inverted full back – excellent point, Jnyc – I suspect we will not sacrifice ball possession thus midfield domination on the alter of properly supporting our single striker. However I hope Arteta will try this in the US. So far he didn’t, but in his defense he weren’t in command of all summer signings. And to be honest, the 2 pre-season friendlies so far have been unimpressive.
But we have 3 weeks before the Community Shield, a crucial game for us not only because of the opportunity to finally open the trophy cabinet, but also because a victory could give us the push, knowing we lost all our last 8 encounters with the Citizens.
J, I agree with you in your assertion that Saka’s creative potential is currently a bit restrained by Arteta’s disciplined approach, and this probably applies to Martinelli. More freedom to do the unexpected would surely improve their return, but could be some drawbacks why the coach doesn’t give them the license to roam freely.
GN5, thanks for your kind words. But never say ‘you are no longer able to’ do something, as you may experience temporary difficulties, and you must be improving by the day. So hopefully soon you will return to your signature spirit and will gift us again with your memories and experience.
TA, Balogun is an interesting phenomenon indeed.
The jury is still out
– whether he is already better than Nketiah and
– whether he always were better, or only just the 3146 competitive minutes last season helped him overtake Eddie
For the sake of simplification, let’s assume that both are knocking on the door of the top 25 strikers. (Balogun, worth 30M is #27, on level with Jackson, Ferguson and Haller, while Nketiah is valued at 25M, placed at #34, on par with Cunha, DCL, Awoniyi and Werner.) Even if we think that Balogun is the better choice, as he is 2 years younger, 3 cm taller and has 1500 more minutes under his belt, he is not interested in playing backup of Jesus, while Eddie has no objection to pretend that there is a competition for the starting place.
If Flo was interested in playing the part of the backup striker, expected to play 1500-2000 minutes, I would be happy to give him the chance and loan Nketiah to to a club when can play 3500 minutes as the first choice striker. But if Balogun wants to start week in week out, unfortunately we have to let him go, as this is something not available at Arsenal.
Yes, Flo wants to play, PB. I sense that he is really, really good. It’s about his reading of the game and technical ability, and of course his athleticism.
He will combine well with Jesus, but Eddie would indeed have to move on. Let’s watch this space.
Hey Stuart, hows things going with you my friend, where in the U.K. has your son moved to?
I’m sure that FaceTime will soften the blow
Stu, you need to keep in touch with us, especially because I’m a bit of a worrier and I get anxious when you don’t pop in and leave your thoughts for us to mull over.
Nice one, Kev.
PB, insightful and comprehensive as ever.
Most of the players you list as being elite are playing for the leading teams in their respective leagues. The remarkable thing about Declan is that we can even consider him to be elite after playing in a WHU team that, although they won some European silverware, really struggled in the PL. The fact that he was so determined to play for Arteta demonstrates his belief in Mikel’s ability to help him develop into an even better player and that this team is going to win silverware.
Where Kai Havertz plays and how well he adapts to that role is going to be crucial to the performances and development of the players around him. It’s a bit of a gamble which I hope is going to pay dividends!
No worries, Kevmate. Just emerging from a busy spell and I am a bit behind on the important things of life including this blessed blog.
My son, Elijah and family are seeking to settle in Cornwall, a truly lovely part of Britain, tho’ a bit windswept and cold in winter. I don’t imagine your fares direct you down that far…
Thoughts? I agree with PB’s consideration that Declan can fill the boots of PV4. I had high hopes for Abu Diaby but injuries cruelly affected his trajectory. Against the better sides we should need a double pivot and either one of Thomas, Jorginho or Caicedo/Lavia could operate alongside Declan in that role. Just as he has either Hendo or Phillips with him in the England set up.
For the lesser opposition I think Declan can sit behind Martin and Kai in a more attacking line up. J’s excellent point about the two inverted fullbacks can see some variation to the two possibilities.
Declan is undoubtedly an elite player.
I disagree with PB regarding Oedergard. I see him as top three, better than Fernandes. Similar skill set but the Scandinavians temperament trumps the Latins one in terms of benefitting team unity, a characteristic which Mikel and his management team have worked hard to establish.
By Watkins, PB, I take it you are writing of Ollie? High praise in my opinion, but I only watched highlights of Villa games last season other than those two games against us.
FIFA Woman’s World Cup kicks off this Thursday in Auckland. NZ (ranked 26) v Norway (ranked 6). We shall do well to get within 3 goals of them, but should beat The Philippines and then the game against Switzerland will be make or break.
Such a pity our Beth and Leah won’t be representing.
LG, if you are reading this; you must have been shaking in your boots watching that opening twenty minutes of All Blacks v Springboks. Sublime. Rugby Heaven for us kiwi’s.
Stu, good to hear from you, I did do a job down to Chichester one Christmas many years ago in the previous century but no, I’ve not even made Devon let alone the home of the indigenous Britons in Cornwall, although I’ve enjoyed a few holidays in that beautiful part of the world, Tintagel, Lands End, the Xavi Simons has rejoined PSG from PSV for £5m so that train has left the station, shame that…usual haunts, very nice, a nightmare to park, amazing cream teas.
Opps, cut n paste went wrong there.
Hi Ox10,
You are probably right that reaching the top without playing at a top club is more difficult and therefore more remarkable. I’m wondering though if Mbappé, Haaland, Salah, de Bruyne, Vinicius, de Jong, Hakimi, Dias, de Ligt were top 3 players before they joined their respective elite team, but probably weren’t. Or at least it wasn’t obvious back then. And even with Belligham reaching the summit at Borussia that is hardly a West Ham equivalent club. (Update: according to TransferMarkt even after selling Rice West Ham is the world’s 20th most valuable club with €453M combined squad worth, while Dortmund is just behind them at #21 with €444M – although they also sold their marquee player to be fair. Nevertheless when they reinvest their record income back into the team they both could jump into the top 15 around Atlético Madrid, Inter Milan and Aston Villa.)
But your point is solid: Declan Rice made the maximum from his West Ham career with the Conference League trophy, and at 24 he could be considered elite along with treble-winning Rodri who plays at the very best team at the moment.
Regarding Havertz, I don’t think Arteta needs to dig deep to find something nobody saw. I hope it will be enough to find that’s been always there and help it resurface. Although making him Arsenal’s highest earner (at the Özil-Auba level) did surprise me, but he is a world class player and an all-around nice guy, so welcome to the club.
Stuart, you might be right that Odegaard is no longer inferior to Fernandes. It’s a tough comparison. Martin made 23 goal contributions last season – all of them in the PL. And Bruno lags behind with his lousy 8+8 in the league, but in all competition his 29 return (14+15) is astonishing, and so is his 5900+ minutes from 67 competitive games. According to WhoScored he was the #4 highest rated player – behind de Bruyne, Haaland and Kane (with Jesus, Saka and Odegaard at #5, #7 and #10) – and was part of the PL teal of the season, but I am willing to call it a tie thus advancing Martin the membership in the elite.
You shouldn’t blog while you are driving, Kev. 😇
BREAKING NEWS:
Arsenal is currently the world’s most valuable club!
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/spieler-statistik/wertvollstemannschaften/marktwertetop
Our squad (€1,21B) worth more – as of today, 17/07/23 – than Manchester City (€1,19B), PSG (€1.03B), Real Madrid (€991M) and Bayern Münich (€895M).
To put this into context, this is definitely temporary. We are not really in the market to buy further players – at least I sincerely hope so – while City is expected to sign Pavard, Gvardiol and Veiga, and even if they lose Walker and Cancelo in the process they will start the next season at the top.
Furthermore the Arsenal squad is currently 33 strong, 20% more than City’s 27. So even if the difference in squad value favors the gunners, the average value per player is 20% more at the Etihad. In fact even Real Madrid has a higher average value per player than us, with Liverpool and Barcelona has similar figures in that department.
I’m aware sounding like a broken record, but we have to trim the squad this summer. A few permanent sales and a handful of quality loans are still ahead of us. That will also bring the squad value down – we might end up being #4 if RM eventually signs Mbappé or PSG keeps him and signs Vlahovic or Ramos, but there will be no shame in that either. Hell, even Bayern has the chance surpass the €1B mark if they only lose Pavard and Goretzka, but manages to sign Kane, Walker, Kim and Sangaré.
Let’s humbly celebrate our short, but shockingly surprising stint on the top of the world, and hope to start the season with a team of 25-28 quality players still worth more than €1B. (And no Lavia, please.)
Driving while blogging, not me Stu, I was contemplating another cup of British brew and lost my composure, that a big gardening project that’s been focusing my mind which should be concluded tomorrow, so me no drive amigo….
Ya’all may well have seen this. It’s very clever… https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/18/fans-bamboozled-by-clever-french-womens-world-cup-ad/
Stu, it’s very clever indeed!
Very clever and somewhat scary use of AI Stu. I don’t even want to think about the devious ways AI can be used in our game.
So much creativity in that video. The French ladies do have exceptional talent in their ranks.
Looks like the lads had a good workout vs the MLS all stars, 5-0, Gabby Jesus, Leo Trossard, Jorginho, Martinelli and Kai, all finding the net. Next stop, Man United on Saturday.
Yeh, Eris, good work out. Gabby M has got that classic Thierry finish in his armoury. Jesus’ chip, Leandro’s unerring finish and Kai’s first touch creating the space for his goal were highlights.
Those and seeing Declan in an Arsenal shirt…
After 2 unimpressive – and also unimportant – pre-season outings Arsenal showed against MLS All-stars what is expected to come in the next PL campaign:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgTlF4rJA_U
Yes the boys were firing from all Cylinders. Saka once again the best player. One day we will all appreciate how good Bukayo is.
And how good our “Ferns” are. What a performance and result v Norway…
Congrats, Stu. 🙂
New Post 🙂