Analysis of Arsenal’s Biggest Competitors Part 2: Liverpool, Spuds, Newcastle and Villa

Squad analysis and chance prediction for the Premier League’s 2023/24 season – part II. 

This is the second and final part of the analysis. I did not change the prediction of the final position of the teams at the end of the PL campaign, but I made some comments and remarks based on the observations of the first 3 rounds. I keep the descending order of clubs by squad value. In the first part Man City ( predicted to finish 2^nd), Arsenal (1), Chelsea (7) and Manchester United (5) were the subjects, I will continue with the next 4 most valuable teams based on their TransferMarkt evaluation. 

Liverpool – 4-2-3-1  

The expected back 5: Allison – Robertson, van Dijk, Konaté, Alexander-Arnold – €173M 

While the 4 stars (out of 5) I assess the defense is not really low, I feel that they don’t do justice. They were the best of their position at some point. But there is a temporal mismatch. VvD is no longer the best defender of the world, and Allison is ‘only’ top 10. TAA used to be the only defender with a market value above 100M, but he couldn’t maintain that amazing performance, and Robertson only worth half of his peak value. Konaté is on the rise though, but it could take some time to become world class. 4/5 stars it is. 

Midfield: Jones, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai – €140M 

Jürgen Klopp had to rebuild Liverpool’s midfield almost from scratch, but he seems to have made a remarkable job despite losing the price competition for both Caicedo and Lavia. Yet WC winner Mac Allister and the captain of Hungary’s national team at 22y Dominik Szoboszlai are both great reinforcements. They are rumored to be on the market for a defensive midfielder, but wonderkid Bajcetic, academy graduate and fan favorite Jones, injury-magnet Thiago and recent signing Endo provide enough depth even if they fail to sign Phillips, Doucouré and Kimmich. The main – and probably only – challenge for Klopp is to give up the 4-3-3 and embrace the 4-2-3-1 as neither Szoboszlai nor Gakpo are central midfielders. That’s a mighty fine midfield, worth 4.5/5 stars even if they need time to identify and harvest synergies. 

Attack: Diaz, Nunez, Salah – €205M 

While Chelsea and Manchester City opt for all-European attack lines Klopp – as so often – went to the different direction. But this is a very-very strong trio, plus the apart from the Egyptian genius there are no first-choice player there, meaning that Jota and Gakpo are just as good players, and are versatile. Making them the second most frightening offense we will face this season, so 5/5 stars coming up. 

After finishing at the extremely disappointing #5 (spending the majority of the season at the 7^th position) they had a busy and remarkable summer; and one or two incoming quality players may be still in the cards. They made smart signings for reasonable prices, they got rid of the deadwood (including the Ox), managed to sell players beyond their prime and loaned out their young talents to decent host clubs. They have the smallest squad in the PL, and as you know I’m a huge admire of that. I won’t be extremely surprised if the win the Premier League, but I couldn’t predict us, City and ‘Pool the combined 1-3 positions. At the end of the day I had to distinguish them for the final position, but I still think this campaign will be a 3-club race. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: DM 

Strengths:  

• Small, efficient squad with plenty of talent 
• Both the manager and the players are likely motivated to bounce back and show their spirit 

• They can easily prioritize PL without sacrificing the Europa League  

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• The last time Klopp played 4-2-3-1 was back in 2012 with Kagawa or Reus as AM 
• Therefore I’m not convinced he is about to switch the formation and tactics to accommodate the squad strength; and playing Szoboszlai and/or Gakpo as #6 central or #8 box-to-box midfielders could easily backfire. Klopp really should (make the) change, but will his ego allow it? 
• It’s not just a quality gap, there is literally no options for right back when TAA is unavailable. 

Even though Liverpool has ‘only’ the 8^th highest squad value in the world, due to the small squad size the average value per player is on par with Bayern Munich (#6), Barcelona (#9) and us (#2), well ahead of Chelsea (#5), PSG (#3), and Man United (#7). Jürgen Klopp has the skills, experience and the team not to fear anyone. Games against City and us will be crucial to decide the PL. Predicted position at the end of the campaign: 3. 

Tottenham Hotspur – 4-2-3-1  

Defense: Vicario – Udogie, Romero, van de Ven, Porro – €171M 

You may think Liverpool had a difficult task to rebuild their midfield, but Tottenham wasn’t in an enviable either (regardless of Kane). They had to reinvent their defense, and that’s a 5-man group at least. They bought a new goalkeeper to relieve former captain and major liability Hugo Lloris, the signed a brand new CB, a proper Spanish RB from Portugal and loaned a young left back who is an ever-present in Italy’s youth setup. The only player who wasn’t signed this year joined last season – but he is a WC winner maestro valued 5M above Gabriel and 5M below Saliba, so individually this is a really very strong bunch. We’ll see what Postecoglou can cook with them, but I grant them 4.5/5 in advance. 

Midfield: 

Defense-focused: Höjbjerg, Bentacour, Maddison – €145M 

Probably the strongest area of the Spuds with plenty of options for rotation and competition. They have already established players and youngsters plenty to prove, but as long as the manager can stick to the best, they are not worse than Liverpool’s midfield, so 4.5 stars are justified. 

Attack: Son, Richarlison, Kulusevski – €148M 

They don’t have much depth in this department, but if they can keep this trio fit they would cause a lot of problems to the opponents. The South Korean is already 31, but he was one of the most feared and prolific attacker not long ago. Kulusevski is on the rise, and Richarlison is the first choice striker of the Brazilian national team, which makes them a force to reckon even without Kane. They might not be on par with Arsenal, but a 4/5 stars assessment is a safe bet here. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: GK 

Strengths:  

• No European football for distraction, at least for a year. 
• A particularly strong starting XI capable to beat any teams, especially at home. 
• Postecoglou is the proverbial dark horse, but know his trait 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Quality-wise thin squad sensitive to serious injuries, even though the size is crazy huge. 
• Since their talisman player hasn’t been properly replaced after a terrible season, confidence are supposed to be low. 
• A lot of key players has joined the team only this summer. 
• Postecoglou’s job is quite different than it was at Celtic; he now has to beat teams of better squad and higher budget 

• There are quite a few players who are expected to start but simply don’t belong to the first choice line-up. 

This is the new manager’s main challenge for the season. If he can disregard ‘tradition’, salaries, fan expectations and dressing room pressure, while sticking to the best XI (might not be the one I listed above – but probably is J – so kind of neglecting Lloris, Dier, Reguilon, Spence, Skipp, Ndombélé, Sarr, and especially Perisic), they can go pretty far. Unlike Arsenal, they need to limit rotation and if they can stick to the best formation and tactics, predicted – surprise – position at the end of the PL-campaign: 4. 

Newcastle United – 4-3-3 

Newcastle is the reason that the phrase ‘top 6’ is no longer in business. They are the parvenu / nuoveau rich club in the PL, whose market capitalization worth 2.5 as much as it was when the Saudi public investment fund took over in 2021. It not just the new players who add value to the club, but the successful performance doubled the worth of players like Joelinton, Almiron, even Willock. They are on a similar path to Artetas, as Mikel replaced the entire first team bar Saka, Martinelli and Saliba, and that’s exactly what Newcastle is doing (except for Schar, Almiron and Joelinton). 

Defense: Pope – Trippier, Botman, Schar, Burn – €96M 

I have a dilemma here. Based on the market value, this should be a 2-star defense at most. On the other hand they had the best defense last season in the entire PL, conceding 10 goals less than us, and I had no problem assessing our defense at 5 stars. Trippier is the best right back attacking-wise, Botman was Gabriel-esque genius signing, and Schar is probably the most reliable yet underappreciated defender in the league, mostly because he was signed cheap. When I grant them 4/5 stars, I feel I was too harsh. 

Midfield: Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton – €162M 

The jury is still out whether Joelinton is the best practice or the sole exception to the rule that you don’t reinvent an attacking midfielder into CM. The Brazilian started as a striker, joined Newcastle for his attacking prowess, and gradually moved to #10 to finally ending up at central midfield. His work-rate is crazy, as he efficiently supports both the defense and the offense. But other parts of the midfield aren’t weak either: even though City and Arsenal share the 2 best DMs, Chelsea has 2 from the top 5 and Newcastle has 2 from the 6-10 best in the word, making it a really strong department of the team. 4.5/5 

Attack: Almiron, Isak, Gordon – €140M 

I don’t see Newcastle games often, but I don’t think their attack is on par with their defense and midfield. Isak is a young, tall striker, but I wouldn’t evaluate him as Jesus, it must be the transfer price effect. The same applies to the wingers: Almiron is not world-class, and Gordon is still a promise not yet the finished article. I think this is a mid-table attack still capable to win games as the play in front of a great midfield and defense. Only 3.5/5 stars awarded, but time will tell. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: LB 

Strengths:  

• A sizeable budget, which is not spent by megalomaniac executives. 
• Smart transfers, introducing 2-3 key players per year signed to address squad weaknesses. 
• They were already strong last year, spending the majority of the season at 3^rd place 

• Loyal home supporters + a load of cretins all over the UK who happily forget/disregard the oil money in order to support a club finally not from London/Manchester/Liverpool 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Huge squad, 3^rd oldest in the league, full of players with no sales value 
• English bias. Club tradition to favor players and managers of native English speaking. Only Benitez as foreigner at the helm since Ruud Gullit stepped down in 1999, and a clear preference to go for players of English/Scottish/Irish/Australian origin when available (Ritchie, Gayle, Clark, Murphy, Rose, Caroll, Wilson, Lewis, Fraser, Willock, Hendrick, Wood, Burn, Trippier, Targett, Gordon, Pope, Barnes, Livramento, Hall). This could work for a Championship team or in a relegation battle, but might not be enough when competing against the very top clubs. 
• Similarly, Howe is a decent manager, but not necessarily the caliber of Klopp, ten Hag and the others.  

Newcastle United finished at 4^th last season which was a bit disappointing to them since they were at a better league position most of the time. Yet, it was an era when Liverpool, Chelsea, (eventual third) United and Tottenham were struggling big time, so this season I only predict them: 6.  

Aston Villa – 4-2-3-1 

There are usually two important/interesting questions apart from the silverware and the relegation. Will any of the top 7 teams finish beyond the top 7 positions? My answer was no. Who will be the best team outside the top 7? My money is on Aston Villa. Many of you are backing Brighton, as they play attractive – and often efficient – football, identify and develop the best talents, and if you read about how they operate the club, it’s impossible not to love them. If I would be a newbie in the PL and had to pick my favorite team solely based on rational arguments, I would be a Brighton fan too. Nevertheless, I expect even West Ham (the club with the best transfer window this summer) to finish above them – and it’s not in hindsight, check my prediction on their game las weekend. But I’m drifting away, let’s focus on Aston Villa. 

Defense: Martinez – Cash, Torres, Konsa, Digne – €138M 

A great defense always starts with a proper goalkeeper, and Emi Martinez is one of the best in the league. In the Torres transfer they managed to bring one of the best Spanish defender to Birmingham, and it was a financially good deal, too. They have decent full-backs, and since Mings has suffered a season-ending injury. Konsa will be the weak link in the backline. Carlos and Konsa are small for center backs, teams with significant aerial threat could punish them. Taken the fresh pair of CBs I give them a somewhat harsh 3.5/5 stars. 

Midfield: Kamara, Luiz, Ramsey – €112M 

We can see at Aston Villa’s midfield what happens when the hoarding mentality supersedes the transfer strategy. (See the Jesus + Vlahovic + Balogun + Nketiah + Trossard scenario) They have 7 strong and 1 former academy players for a 3-men position, excluding Buendia, but including Tielemans, who just became the club’s highest earner after his free transfer from Leicester City. McGuinn would be my choice to drop, but is in peak form and he is the club captain, so good luck to Emery to keep them all satisfied. Zainolo might play, but I doubt he becomes a starter. If they would be 3 players shorter I would have no problems giving them 4 starts out of 5, but it’s only 3.5/5 from me in these circumstances.  

Attack: Diaby, Watkins, Bailey – €118 

It will be interesting how Villa with not many quality options for attacking rotation would handle the double pressure, but Unay is the grandmaster of underdogs playing in Europe, so I would not write them off. This is quite a potent trident there, who have already scored 3 goals more than us. However, I would be comfortable with 4/5 stars as our attacking guys play below expectations while Villa’s trio is currently in overperforming mode. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: CB 

Strengths:  

• I’m not sure if Emery could have won the treble with the Manchester City team, but apart from his English language deficiencies he is the best manager and tactician when it comes to play against stronger teams, find and exploit their weaknesses. 
• They have acquired top players (Diaby, Torres) with winning mentality to complement their existing stars (Luiz, Watkins, Kamara, Martinez, Buendia) and young talents (Ramsey, Dhuran, Iroegbunam) 
• Their stadium is a fortress in home games. 
• The third smallest squad among the top 8 clubs, with not many changes to disrupt the development trajectory. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• It’s always a challenge to ‘undress’ the small club mentality. 
• The Villa squad is the second oldest of the top 8. 
• Unreasonable supply of quality players in midfield can easily lead to tension and discontent among players. 

Aston Villa’s performance last season is nothing short of miracle, especially after their 4 points of the first 6 games. But since the appointment of Emery they can’t seem to stop kicking ass. They made some surprising, high profile reinforcements, and they are reaping its harvest. I expect a strong presence in the Conference League and a similarly successful PL-campaign finishing in the position of: 8. 

Summary of the top 8 assessment based on final positions (club, stars combined, English players in the strongest XI): 

1. Arsenal 14,5 3 (Ramsdale, White, Rice) 

2. Man City 14 2 (Walker, Foden) 

3. Liverpool 13,5 1 (Alexander-Arnold) 

4. Tottenham 13 1 (Maddison) 

5. Man United 12,5 3 (Shaw, Mount, Rashford) 

6. Newcastle 12 4 (Pope, Trippier, Burn, Gordon/Barnes) 

7. Chelsea 11,5 2 (Chilwell, James) 

8. Aston Villa 11 3 (Konsa/Mings, Ramsey, Watkins) 

What were the weirdest prediction? 

Who would finish the lowest among the top 7? 

Which team would you bet to finish the strongest outside the top 7? 

See you in the comments! 

By Peter Barany