GN5 Remembrance PL competition
ANNOUNCEMENT
To follow the long tradition of Bergkampesque and to honor the loving memory of frequent author, fellow Gooner, but most of all our dear friend GN5 (Cyril) please welcome this season’s competition in his name.
Without usurping his trademark weekly game-scoring prediction contest, but keeping the focus on the PL with a slight bias towards Arsenal the competition is a simplified forecast of the final table.
In fact, to participate you only need to comment 5 groups of clubs (4 teams each) and a single 3-digit number (see later).
Nevertheless (you knew this word was coming) don’t rush and give some time to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the Premier League.
Is Manchester City stronger than in the previous season? Can Arteta increase the total points with a further 2-3?
Is the marriage of Bohly’s money and spending spree with a coach from Guardiola’s school will be enough to qualify Chelsea to the CL?
Could Emery further improve on his squad or did he fall victim to the summer transfer megalomania?
Will Ten Hag be capable of integrating his recently signed stars into a competitive team soon enough to fight for silverware?
Is Dominic Solanke a Champions League level striker (whom we should regret not signing)?
Has any team completed a more effective transfer window than West Ham United?
Do you think the passivity of Liverpool – and Slot – is a sign of impotence or a sign of pure genius?
Shall we start calling Fulham little Arsenal, and can our former gunners (Leno, Iwobi, ESR) lead them to greatness?
Can Crystal Palace maintain their quality without their star player(s) and substantial reinforcements? (At the time of the post Nketiah was not yet transferred.)
Will any of the promoted teams be able to stay in the PL or will they share the fate of the previous year’s commuters?
APPLICATION
Don’t worry, you don’t have to answer these questions – however feel free to participate in the discussion in the comments.
You simply (?) need to divide the 20 PL teams into the 5 categories below and list them regardless of their further order within their groups.
1. League of Champions – England’s and Europe’s finest (1-4)
2. The challengers – competing for a spot in Europe (5-8)
3. Mid-table mediocrity – still stronger than most from the Top 10 leagues (9-12)
4. Climbing up or falling down –teams that also played (13-16)
5. Tested and found wanting – 3 frustrated and 1 relieved (17-20)
+1: the sum of Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.
SCORING
You get
+4 points after each team’s final standing in the proper designated category
+1 point/team if they end up in a neighboring category (regardless of direction)
-2 points if your predicted and the actual final categories are 2 groups apart
-5 points per team if a club happens to deceive you by 3 whole categories
If you manage to err by 4 categories (you predict a team making CL while it gets delegated; or vice versa) you get disqualified, TA will ban you from the blog, and we inform your internet service provider to make the necessary steps.*
In the probable case of a tie the deciding factor will be the accuracy of your prediction about – the sum of – Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.
* The same penalty applies if you predict the sum of table points and goal difference using only 2 digits.
In the highly unlikely case of a second level tie the person who submitted their predictions sooner will be awarded.
MONITORING
I will do my very best to share the standings 5 times during the PL campaign: after the 6th, 12th, 19th, 25th and 31st rounds before announcing the winners at the end of the season.
Obviously, the mid-league standings have no significance whatsoever, they will be only snapshots of the entire process. It could be interesting though.
(For the sake of simplification I will use a linear model to proportionally adjust Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.)
For a single game at hand I will assume a 0:0 draw. If more games are missing, I will apply a more sophisticated but rather uninteresting model to forecast the unavailable results thus balancing the games played by each team.
In case you would like to audit the fairness of the competition I will store the prediction and evaluate the scores in an excel table – feel free to ask for a copy at the end.
REWARDS
Following Stuart’s generous offer the first prize will be a signed copy of Liam Brady’s autobiography: Born to be a footballer
The second prize will be a 3D puzzle on Arsenal’s Emirates stadium.
As a third prize you will be invited to the brainstorming about next season’s competition.
Logistics will be communicated via e-mail or private messages of a selected social media.
DEADLINE
It would have been reasonable to set the submission deadline before the PL starts to the 15th of August.
However, the 2 weeks between the start of the campaign and the end of the summer transfer window could seriously impact the squads and thus their competitiveness.
And it is indeed important. Would Toney leave England or only Brentford? Will Crystal Palace lose Guéhi? If yes, would it reinforce Newcastle’s defense?
Could Chelsea or Arsenal be the final destination for Osimhen? Will Fulham snatch McTominay? Is Chelsea going to give away their surplus to requirement players cheaply to their competitors or loan them out?
Therefore, after careful consideration, the deadline for submission is the start of the 3rd round, specifically the kick-off of the Arsenal vs. Brighton game on the last day of August.
(The summer transfer window will have been closed for half a day by then, so you will have had plenty of time to incorporate the last minute transfers to your prediction.)
The channel to submit your predictions is a comment: either under this thread or under a subsequent post that follows – before the deadline (13:30 GMT).
PARTICIPATION
Everybody is most welcome to take part in GN5 memorial PL competition**.
For the core community and recurring guest authors it’s kind of a moral obligation, but there are no restrictions applied.
Anyone can submit, regardless of age, ethnicity, sexual orientation, hell even football preference.
So you can be a first time visitor – even supporting a different team – feel free to share your predictions, as long as you behave as civilized adults.
(Do not worry, being a Chelsea, Tottenham or United fan will be considered grey zone from the civilization point of view.)
Past Arsenal employees and affiliates are welcome to join. The more the merrier.
** However, current first team players and coaching staff members are excluded due to conflict of interest.
Nevertheless, I’m willing to turn a blind eye as long as you offer a signed jersey for next year’s competition.
For the sake of excitement – and to increase the number of participants – I will submit 2 dummy predictions. One from ChatGPT (or the first AI that is willing to answer my PL forecast inquiry) and one solely based on TransferMarkt’s order of squad value by the time the transfer window closes.
In the (sad) case of an artificial entry getting into the top 3 the prize will be awarded to the next humanoid participant.
Don’t hesitate to share your questions in the comments. But be kind.
And don’t forget to submit your 5 sets of teams by Saturday!
By PB.
Bergkampesque 
These are the teams to put into the five categories mentioned by PB:
Everton, Wolves, Ipswich, Palace, Southampton, Leicester, Bournemouth, Brentford, Aston Villa, Manchester United, Fulham, West Ham, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Spuds, Pool, Arsenal, Man City, Brighton
Great idea, PB. Thank you for doing this and what a wonderful thing it is to make this the GN5 remembrance competition.
League of Champions – England’s and Europe’s finest (1-4): Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Spuds
2. The challengers – competing for a spot in Europe (5-8): Newcastle, Chelsea, Manchester United, Villa
3. Mid-table mediocrity – still stronger than most from the Top 10 leagues (9-12): Fulham, Brighton, West Ham, Forest
4. Climbing up or falling down –teams that also played (13-16):
Wolves, Southampton, Leicester, Brentford
5. Tested and found wanting – 3 frustrated and 1 relieved (17-20):
Ipswich, Palace, Everton, Bournemouth
+1= 95 points +70 GD
ARSENAL play PSG (home), Inter Milan (away), Shakhtar Donetsk (home), Atalanta (away), Dinamo Zagreb (home), Sporting Lisbon (away), Monaco (home), Girona (away).
Where is everybody?
Where is everybody? Well, I have just woken up! Awoken to three exciting catapults into the day.
1. The lovely photo of Cyril.
2. A good draw for the CL. (Look at those home games against geographically distant teams.)
3. P.B.s interesting comp. With a viciously looming deadline.
PB, I need some clarification:
Do we list the teams in order we think they will finish the season and include a forecast of points total, goals scored and goals conceded?
And a question: Is there any proviso for points deducted during or at end of season for any club that doesn’t, or hasn’t toed the line?
PB, I look forward to your promised dummy predictions as a guideline.
Hi Stu,
Thanks for pointing out some of my vague phrasings.
You don’t have to list the final order. That’s more than I need. However if you do list the teams from 1 to 20 I can translate that into into the categories easily.
No points, wins goals scores or conceded necessary. Maybe next year if people find this competition too basic or easy. Just the distributing the 20 teams into the 5 categories above – just like TA did in his 3rd comment.
The sequence within the group is not relevant. Assuming TA meant ‘Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Spuds’ as an ordered list for the ‘League of Champions’ and Liverpool turns out #4 he will get the whole 4 points for Liverpool for putting them into their proper category. However if you put them as #5 which belongs to ‘The challengers’ category, you only get 1 point. This might seem slightly unfair as you missed only a single position while TA missed 2, but he got the category (1-4) right, and you put the Reds to an adjacent category (5-8).
Good question about points deducted. I haven’t thought about that, but it only seems fair that we disregard any deductions and focus on team strengths only. So it theoretically could happen that a team gets relegated due to points deducted but would still belong to the 13-16 category (a.k.a. Climbing up or falling down) from the competition point of view.
I am willing to reconsider if many of you disagree. But let’s hope that there will be no deductions this season as it could seriously impact the competition.
p.s. I’ll share the summy predictions late tomorrow or early Saturday.
I love the photos chosen.
This seems like a major responsibility to run the operation. Unfortunately I’m not even a fantasy football guy.
Now just hours left in the window, and I think the club want to add one forward, and need to add a number 2 keeper. Edu playing some serious poker. Nervy for a team with title chances.
Great idea, PB. TA, I take it that’s a pic of GN5. Lovely.
PB, seeing as the deadline for submissions looms large, I suggest you take the first shot, as a guide. You had quite a lot to pack in there and one would need your lead.
Where is Kev, by the way?
Agreed Stu. A dummy prediction from PB will be helpful; I see TA did something too.
Jeez! PB, did you take a cue from the new UEFA Champions league format for this new competition? 😜
Guys, it is very clear to me, and please see my third comment as a way to do it. Basically, this competition is about predicting five categories of teams: top four, bottom four, four below top four, four above the bottom four, and the middle four. You don’t get extra points for getting the exact final position of teams right; PB wants us to predict who will end up in the five categories. It forces us to think about all other teams in the PL.
Good job, PB.
J, you can do this mate 💪 👏
I asked ChatGPT (4o) to predict the final table of the ’24-’25 PL. That was its answer:
Manchester City
Liverpool
Arsenal
Chelsea
Manchester United
Newcastle United
Tottenham Hotspur
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
West Ham United
Brentford
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Everton
Southampton
Leicester City
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town
Furthermore I managed to get some Arsenal-related forecasts out of it, although only intervals:
Predicted Points: 78-84 points
Predicted Goals Scored: 75-85 goals
Predicted Goals Conceded: 35-45 goals
So I transform these into ChatGPT’s official entry to our competition as follows:
1. League of Champions (1-4): Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea
2. The challengers (5-8): Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Brighton
3. Mid-table mediocrity (9-12): Aston Villa, West Ham United, Brentford, Fulham
4. Climbing up or falling down (13-16): Crystal Palace, Wolverhampton, Everton, Southampton
5. Tested and found wanting (17-20): Leicester City, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Ipswich
+1 the sum of Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference – to decide possible ties: 121 (81+80-40; I used the center of the predicted intervals)
TA, you forgot the +1
I will submit TransferMarkt’s application after the transfer window has closed.
PB, i have added the final bit at the end of my third comment.
CoyrrGs
Wow
I’ve had all sorts of pre-op medicals lately – I’m good to go.
But … you’ve been so busy all the while I just can’t answer to all the great comments I’ve just read
Thanks again for your wonderful idea, P. – illustrating the post with this great photograph of Cyril is the definitive human touch this post needed
My predictions:
1-4:
Gooners über alles; Cheaty; ‘Pool; Manure
5-8:
Chavs; Magpies; You-Know-Who-from-down-the road (can’t help but like their Epicurean Aussie lad); Villains
9-12:
Hammers; Seagulls; Southside prodigal sons of the Arsenal; Croydon’s Blaugrana
13-16
Dorset’s Rossoneri; Bees; Timberland; Merseyside Blues
17-20:
Portman Rd’s Blues; Foxes; Le Tissier’s grandsons (what a player he was … a true artist, if ever there was one); Sheep in Wolves’ clothing
I’ll answer to your introductory questions later on, P. (soon, I hope)
Looking forward to tomorrow’s game; COYG
Indeed, TA, my bad. Duly noted this time.
Thanks, LG, for playing and for those riddles. 🙂
MIKEL MERINO INJURED (already???).
Our new recruit sustained a shoulder problem and is expected to be out of action for a few weeks.
“It’s very unfortunate,” Arteta said. “Yesterday he had a collision and got a shoulder injury. He’s going to be out for a few weeks.
“It’s really bad luck and we were all very excited. He was looking very good, he landed on the floor, Gabi went on top of him and it looks like he’s got a small fracture probably. He was in so much pain, so we have to wait and see with the staff to do some more tests to have more conclusive answers.”
Culled from the club website.
Thanks, TA, PB, LG and ChatGPT. Got it now and shall post soon enough. 👍
That’s great news, LG. Some good sleep, a glass of Domaine Pontifical Châteauneuf du Pape 2021, and a win over Brighton should prepare your body and soul for the op.
PB, my forecasts…
League of Champions – England’s and Europe’s finest (1-4): Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea.
2. The challengers – competing for a spot in Europe (5-8): Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United.
3. Mid-table mediocrity – still stronger than most from the Top 10 leagues (9-12): Newcastle United, West Ham United, Fulham, Crystal Palace.
4. Climbing up or falling down –teams that also played (13-16):
Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Brentford.
5. Tested and found wanting – 3 frustrated and 1 relieved (17-20):
Ipswich Town, Everton, Leicester City, Southampton.
+1= 92 points +65 GD
Raheem, come on over…
Aaron to Saints
Emile toFulham
Eddie to Palace
STERLING to Arsenal looks to go ahead. A loan without obligation would be ideal.
I like it, Total.
Reiss to Fulham… Arsenal’s second team in London.
Yes on loan, which means that he should return much stronger.
Beautiful leaving message by Eddie. Such a young gentleman.
emotional message to Arsenal fans. It reads: “As I say goodbye, I want to take this time to say thank you to everyone at the club, from my teammates to all the wonderful staff who have been a part of my journey and have made this place home for so many years.
“Working my way up from Hale End to the first team was a dream come true. It taught me what it means to play for the club and what a privilege it is to wear the shirt. I never took it for granted and gave my all every time I stepped on the pitch.
“From scoring my first senior goal against Norwich in 2017, to making over 100 appearances for Arsenal, I have made memories here I shall carry with me for the rest of my life.
“I’m grateful to have felt your support and I’ll cherish the memories we have made.
“Thank you Gooners. Eddie.”
PB, my forecasts…
League of Champions – (1-4): Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs.
2. The challengers – competing for a spot in Europe (5-8): Chelsea, Manchester United, Newcastle, Aston Villa.
3. Mid-table mediocrity – still stronger than most from the Top 10 leagues (9-12) Crystal Palace, Fulham, Brighton & Hove Albion, West ham.
4. Climbing up or falling down –teams that also played (13-16) Brentford, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Southampton.
5. Tested and found wanting – 3 frustrated and 1 relieved (17-20) Everton, Ipswich, Wolves, Leicester City.
+1: 94 pts. 67GD
A good summary of Sterling’s situation and potential he brings to Arsenal this season:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cq5d7nxv61po
My “+1”, P.:
93 pts
+63
I’d have no complaints against a 1-0 to the Arsenal; those 12:30 games are not our forte
COYG
Thanks Stu for your forecast!
This is the entry of TransferMarkt.
League of Champions:
Manchester City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool
The challengers:
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Mid-table mediocrity:
Brighton & Hove Albion
West Ham United
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Climbing up or falling down:
Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bournemouth
Everton
Tested and found wanting:
Fulham
Southampton
Leicester City
Ipswich Town
+1: 149
(LG, please add your prediction for the sum of Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference)
Jnyc, Kev, please join us in the forecast challenge. It wouldn’t be the same without you.
LG, you were the faster. 🙂
Yes where are you, Kevin?
Really looking forward to the game.
https://www.arsenal.com/news/edu-reflects-summer-transfer-window
That’s a good article, Eris. Edu has a good mix of pride and humility.
4
White
12
Timber
2
Saliba
6
Gabriel
5
Thomas
8
Odegaard (c)
41
Rice
29
Havertz
7
Saka
19
Trossard
33
R. Calafiori
20
Jorginho
17
Zinchenko
15
Kiwior
11
Martinelli
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
36
T. Setford
56
S. Oulad M’Hand
53
E. Nwaneri
Look at those Academy bench players! Start for grumpy Tross. Come on you Gunners.
4 LBs on the bench (at least 4 players who are capable to play at LB, albeit Kiwior is more on a LCB and MLS’ best position is DM), you don’t see that every day (with Tierney injured).
Here is my nomination for the competition:
League of Champions:
Arsenal
Manchester City
Liverpool
Tottenham
The challengers:
Manchester United
Aston Villa
West Ham United
Chelsea
Mid-table mediocrity:
Newcastle
Brighton & Hove Albion
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Climbing up or falling down:
Nottingham Forest
Brentford
Bournemouth
Everton
Tested and found wanting:
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Southampton
Leicester City
Ipswich Town
+1: 152
That is 7 so far. Can we get 8 and 9?
Ref Kavanaugh does what he does best; give the advantage to Arsenal’s opponents. Declan gets his first sending off and it had to be as an Arsenal player.
On replay he did flick the ball away from the kicking foot, but he was not even looking at the player so, a harsh one, for me.
It is all hands to the pump now.
1-1! Gabriel should have won that ball there. Keeper makes the same but Pedro pounces on the rebound.
Trossard off for Califiori. Why make that change after their equaliser?
A bit harsh indeed, but Declan just didn’t look right in this game and I cannot say I am totally surprised.
We can do them on the counter but it’s going to be tough.
I feel most teams are suffering the effects of the exertion of their key players at the Euros and Copa Americas. Declan will take some time to return to the form we know.
Some of the Refs in the EPL have to improve their disposition towards our players. They “slow” our midfielders down by starting them off with some cautions early in the game. Afterwards, they issue some reconciliatory yellow cards to the opposition, late in the game, after our game has been affected.
Yes, Trossard should have been kept in and Gab probably wishes he had slid in to tackle.
Either way, when the pgmol wants you to lose a few points over the course of the season, they will always find a way. – Just like how allowing Jorginho to get a forearm to the head, and Gabriel to get pushed at the goal line last year cost us the title.
Some people remember other dropped points, like Villa. At least those points were honestly dropped. The Newcastle points were stolen, and it was just enough.
New Post 🙂