Author: TotalArsenal

It is the NLD and the Spuds are coming to THOF. Both teams are in great form and a win today would be extra sweet. We don’t really know how our opponents will play, but post-Kane they look different and have started well.

However much I despise the team with the skinny chicken on the ball, I must admit I like Postecoglu. Finally the silly Spuds have gotten themselves a manager who knows his stuff, is humble and gets the best out of players: quite a difference from the Conte and Mourinho days. Of course, it’s early days and a red and white thumping today may yet unsettle the manager and the fans, but it looks like they have got something to build on now.

Arsenal had a great game against naïve PSV. If only we could have as much as space and time as we had on Wednesday in every game, hey?! This turned out to be a great practice game even though it was the CL season-opener. What was especially pleasing to the eye was both our defensive calm v a rampant Eindhoven attacking line-up and the quality of our finishing. The shots were like snooker-game long-pots: you could almost hear the satisfying sound of the pockets sucking the balls in. Saka pounced on his opportunity and used his weaker foot to put a diagonal placed shot past the keeper; The Tross exquisitely riffled a shot past the keeper’s left from the edge of the box after a precise lay-off by Bukayo; from acres of space and time, Jesus put a hard diagonal in the same corner Bukayo had scored in, and; in the second half, Martin Odegaard cued a technically perfect shot, also from just outside the box, to beat the keeper at his left once more. It was slick, precise and deadly, and the boys are ready to peel the Spuddies today.

We have seen Arsenal struggling to get the attacking game going in the PL, but we also really loved our sturdiness at the back. Today we need both, attack and defence, to be at their best to secure the win and three points. It looks like the Spuds will play with two deeper midfielders, Sarr and Bissouma, with Son up-front. In between these three they are likely to play the creative, attacking trio of Maddison, Kulusevski and Solomon. We all know that Maddison has a good shot from distance and is good with set-pieces, Kulusevski has been a good signing for the Spuds and Son may well do well, especially now he is no longer in the shade of half-moon-faced Kane. I guess we will see Hojberg, more than a half-decent deep-laying midfielder, at the start or at some point later, too.

We need , as almost always, to control that midfield to win this game and I reckon today is the game we all start to appreciate Havertz a lot more. As Kev said in the previous post, Kai covers a lot of space and links up the lines as such. He has good defensive qualities too and passes the ball well. He will need to support Declan AND the Ode today as both will be targeted, no doubt.

I expect the following lineup:

——Ramsdale——-

Big Ben, Tequila, Big Gab, Zinch

——-DECLAN RICE——-

–Ode————Kai–

– BuKA—-Jesus—-Tross-

I only expect one change and that’s in goal.

Come On You Rip-Roaring Gunners!

By TotalArsenal.

Well, what did you make of that then?

Arsenal can play some awesome football but, at the moment, it’s the pre-Wenger spirit of winning with 1-0 to the Arsenal that’s keeping us on top. Resilience, grit, being hard to beat rather than flamboyance and style. I like it: without it we just will not have a chance to win the League this season.

Eight observations:

1. David Raya I salute you: confident on the ball and in the air, what a debut! He may not have had much to do but he did everything with composure and confidence; and that rubbed off on the rest of the defence. His distribution was also faultless. Class.
2. Everton had one player who I reckon will give their Arsenal counterpart a run for their money if he was signed: Vitalii Mykelenko. This 24 year old Ukrainian I would happily swap with his fellow countryman at our left. The Zinch is too much of a chancer for me in his passing: he lacks composure and accuracy. Yes now and again he produces a peach of a pass but too often he loses the ball for us. Mykelenko really impressed for Everton, just as he did v England a week ago. One to watch.
3. Trossard may well become our super-sub this season. It was sad for Martinelli that both his goal was chalked off and he had to leave the field with a hamstring injury, but the Tross made us forget him. The really good thing about Leandro is his technical ability. He works hard, and is a good passer of the ball, but his biggest asset is his shooting accuracy. I love this guy.
4. This was a hard game for Eddie. With a deep block by the opposition we need movement and ability to hold on to the ball everywhere. Eddie is best when running into space or when we create lots of balls into the box: sooner or later Eddie is in the right place and boom he scores. But, as the whole team struggled to create momentum and chaos in the opposition’s box, Eddie just could not give us a bit of edge today.
5. I think we can put to bed that Arteta is not going to rotate the team this season. Starting with Raya, Eddie and Vieira is a sign that he will mix and match players more now. Let’s see what will happen on Wednesday, but I reckon we will see at least four changes then.
6. Saka is not yet as his peak this season, but he still manages to produce; two goals and two assists in 5 PL games is a sign of quality. I like it that he does not try to force things. Bukayo is so calm and always keen to find that one moment…. and he did so again with his assist for Trossard.
7. The refereeing was once again poor. It was all about Arsenal not liking it when they get roughed up, and the referee was loving Everton doing it. On top of that the commentary was proverbially poor and lazy. Luckily, we won and can move on to the next game.
8. Well done, Mikel. The subs were spot and you clearly had the team prepared to focus for 90+ minutes. I like it that we are slightly behind Citeh: they are the ones being chased by a pack and we are one of the wolves. The press will keep loving Guardiola’s team, and they would love us to be ahead and do the whole ‘Looks who is behind you, Arsenal’ rhetoric, so let’s stay close and keep grinding out results. It is a long season and nothing else but OGAAT matters. Bring on Eindhoven finest!

By TotalArsenal

For some bizarre reason our trips to Goodison Park have been a tough toffee to swallow in recent years. The last three visits there all ended in a loss, and yet historically we have such a good record against them in the PL. I don’t like playing an away game straight after an interlull: players return on different days, possible injuries need to be assessed, and rather than settle back in at the home of football the team has to travel somewhere straightaway.

But Citeh and Pool had to do it and they won their games today, and Arsenal have to do the same on Sunday. Everton have made a poor start and are in a dire situation all together, but they will want to bounce back and what do they really have to lose playing us? They know Arsenal have struggled there recently, and it will give the home team a bit of much needed confidence, no doubt.

So we all know that the boys need to show a ruthless streak and stay focused for 90+ minutes. This is a must win game for more than one reason. Will we have the backbone for this? I think we do, and the team have shown already that they know how to grind out a result and fight for every ball. Yet, we are without warrior Partey and others will have to step up. The good news is that Jesus is properly back and he will be much needed to crack the Toffees’ deep-lying defence and give us that extra dimension in attack.

Further good news is that Elneny is back in training after a long injury. Will he play a few minutes tomorrow?

I am glad we have Eddie in the team but with Jesus we really have more zip to our play; we become more unpredictable and the likes of Odegaard and Havertz will likely benefit from this. Martinelli seems to play much better when Gabby is on the pitch too. Everton will likely play us on the counter and hope for goals from set-pieces. We know what to expect and only a fully professional performance will see take three points down the M6 and M1.

Line-up:

Ramsdale

White-Tequila-Big Gab-Zinch

–Declan the Manc Killer—

–The Ode—Havertz—

Buka—-Jesus—-Martinelli

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!

By TotalArsenal.

Four games played and so far so good. 1o/12 points is a great return, just ask Manure or East Coast Oiler fans! Football-team-supporting and high expectations are of course a common and lethal combination. However hard one tries to keep the latter down, they have a tendency to creep up on us, and before you know you are expecting your team to always play beautiful, winning football. This is asking for unhappiness.

It certainly has not been beautiful football until now. The players are re-finding their balance and it is taking time. We often look laboured and lacking that extra gear. The good thing is that this Arsenal team still knows how to fight for every point, and this has seen us through three games already, and almost secured us all the points in the other one (v Fulham). At this stage we just cannot ask for much more.

We are missing Xhaka on the left and Rice and Havertz just need a little time to settle. Declan is getting better every game and Kai is needing a bit more time. Unfortunately, patience and perspective are rare commodities among the general fanbase. Just as well Mikel is a people manager and will be working hard with Havertz to get him into the right frame of mind. The rest will sort itself out normally; the only thing that can mess Kai’s career up at Arsenal is a lack of support by the fans. Let’s hope that a few good performances will turn things round for him.

I also think the players have learned that a season is long, and with CL football on the mains-menu and the European Championship in Germany as a mouth-watering desert as a prospect as well, it is even more important that the players don’t overdo it early on. Slowly but surely does it.

The coming round of games before the next interlull – Everton away, PSV at home, Spuds at home, Brentford away, Bournemouth away, Lens away, Citeh at home – will be a big test, and, dare I say it, a good sequence of games to play ourselves into the groove again. What a treat for us Gooners, hey?!

Fingers crossed our players return uninjured from this international break and that Mikel can work his magic with the non-travelling players as well. I cannot wait for the season to resume and see the boys in action again.

Keep the faith!

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!

By TotalArsenal.

Our PL-era most-disliked team are coming to THoF and let’s send them back home with screams for their theatre of dreams. The boys will never need much motivating for a game against the Mancs – Arteta will have a library full of stuff to inspire with – but they will be extra fired up after the ridiculous challenges Ten Hag’s hackers put in during that so-called friendly in the States recently. We owe them one alright.

This is a make or break season for egghead Ten Hag who really is a fine tactician but may lack the interpersonal skills to succeed at Manchester United or indeed in the UK – I see more of a comparison with Emery than with Mikel. No doubt he will be hoping for having an Arteta-season himself this time round, but first signs are not great. Of course, all teams need to still get into their strides, as do the Gunners. Both opponents have made changes to their midfield and opted to buy a Chelsea player to move things forward, over the summer. Mason Mount is out and Havertz is finding his feet in our team, trying to understand what Arteta wants from him.

This is normally exactly the sort of game to kick-start the season, one to build confidence and form on. But after this there will be an interlull and all momentum is in jeopardy again. An away game at sorry and wounded Everton – a ground where we have had some huge wins but also painful and unnecessary losses – after the break could also prove to be extra tricky. In short, we need a win today and a season-lifting, awakening kind of performance, just we go into the break feel warm and cosy. 🙂

Who will do that for us? It looks like Partey is out and that will be a miss for the boys. Arteta may have to tweak a bit for this one as we do need the extra deeper midfielder. Partey and Rice with Odegaard higher up would have been great. Elneny is out, Granit is gone, so what to do? Now, I have never been convinced about Zinchenko being our best left full back, but I reckon he will be great in midfield. He can play there now since Xhaka is gone, and I would be tempted to do so today.

My preferred line-up:

——Ramsdale——–

White-Tequila-Big Gab-Tomi

—-Rice—Zinch——

——The Ode———

Saka—Jesus—Marti

I would be tempted to start Trossard over Martinelli, but the Brazilian always plays so much better when Jesus is on the pitch- and who wouldn’t! After sixty or seventy minutes bring on Havertz (to score the winner), Trossard, Eddie and maybe even Madhu’s favourite son Emile to turn Ashburton Grove into a bastion of delight and celebration for the third in a row against the Manky Mancs.

Come on You Rip Roaring Gunners!!!!

By TotalArsenal.

Squad analysis and chance prediction for the Premier League’s 2023/24 season – part II. 

This is the second and final part of the analysis. I did not change the prediction of the final position of the teams at the end of the PL campaign, but I made some comments and remarks based on the observations of the first 3 rounds. I keep the descending order of clubs by squad value. In the first part Man City ( predicted to finish 2^nd), Arsenal (1), Chelsea (7) and Manchester United (5) were the subjects, I will continue with the next 4 most valuable teams based on their TransferMarkt evaluation. 

Liverpool – 4-2-3-1  

The expected back 5: Allison – Robertson, van Dijk, Konaté, Alexander-Arnold – €173M 

While the 4 stars (out of 5) I assess the defense is not really low, I feel that they don’t do justice. They were the best of their position at some point. But there is a temporal mismatch. VvD is no longer the best defender of the world, and Allison is ‘only’ top 10. TAA used to be the only defender with a market value above 100M, but he couldn’t maintain that amazing performance, and Robertson only worth half of his peak value. Konaté is on the rise though, but it could take some time to become world class. 4/5 stars it is. 

Midfield: Jones, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai – €140M 

Jürgen Klopp had to rebuild Liverpool’s midfield almost from scratch, but he seems to have made a remarkable job despite losing the price competition for both Caicedo and Lavia. Yet WC winner Mac Allister and the captain of Hungary’s national team at 22y Dominik Szoboszlai are both great reinforcements. They are rumored to be on the market for a defensive midfielder, but wonderkid Bajcetic, academy graduate and fan favorite Jones, injury-magnet Thiago and recent signing Endo provide enough depth even if they fail to sign Phillips, Doucouré and Kimmich. The main – and probably only – challenge for Klopp is to give up the 4-3-3 and embrace the 4-2-3-1 as neither Szoboszlai nor Gakpo are central midfielders. That’s a mighty fine midfield, worth 4.5/5 stars even if they need time to identify and harvest synergies. 

Attack: Diaz, Nunez, Salah – €205M 

While Chelsea and Manchester City opt for all-European attack lines Klopp – as so often – went to the different direction. But this is a very-very strong trio, plus the apart from the Egyptian genius there are no first-choice player there, meaning that Jota and Gakpo are just as good players, and are versatile. Making them the second most frightening offense we will face this season, so 5/5 stars coming up. 

After finishing at the extremely disappointing #5 (spending the majority of the season at the 7^th position) they had a busy and remarkable summer; and one or two incoming quality players may be still in the cards. They made smart signings for reasonable prices, they got rid of the deadwood (including the Ox), managed to sell players beyond their prime and loaned out their young talents to decent host clubs. They have the smallest squad in the PL, and as you know I’m a huge admire of that. I won’t be extremely surprised if the win the Premier League, but I couldn’t predict us, City and ‘Pool the combined 1-3 positions. At the end of the day I had to distinguish them for the final position, but I still think this campaign will be a 3-club race. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: DM 

Strengths:  

• Small, efficient squad with plenty of talent 
• Both the manager and the players are likely motivated to bounce back and show their spirit 

• They can easily prioritize PL without sacrificing the Europa League  

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• The last time Klopp played 4-2-3-1 was back in 2012 with Kagawa or Reus as AM 
• Therefore I’m not convinced he is about to switch the formation and tactics to accommodate the squad strength; and playing Szoboszlai and/or Gakpo as #6 central or #8 box-to-box midfielders could easily backfire. Klopp really should (make the) change, but will his ego allow it? 
• It’s not just a quality gap, there is literally no options for right back when TAA is unavailable. 

Even though Liverpool has ‘only’ the 8^th highest squad value in the world, due to the small squad size the average value per player is on par with Bayern Munich (#6), Barcelona (#9) and us (#2), well ahead of Chelsea (#5), PSG (#3), and Man United (#7). Jürgen Klopp has the skills, experience and the team not to fear anyone. Games against City and us will be crucial to decide the PL. Predicted position at the end of the campaign: 3. 

Tottenham Hotspur – 4-2-3-1  

Defense: Vicario – Udogie, Romero, van de Ven, Porro – €171M 

You may think Liverpool had a difficult task to rebuild their midfield, but Tottenham wasn’t in an enviable either (regardless of Kane). They had to reinvent their defense, and that’s a 5-man group at least. They bought a new goalkeeper to relieve former captain and major liability Hugo Lloris, the signed a brand new CB, a proper Spanish RB from Portugal and loaned a young left back who is an ever-present in Italy’s youth setup. The only player who wasn’t signed this year joined last season – but he is a WC winner maestro valued 5M above Gabriel and 5M below Saliba, so individually this is a really very strong bunch. We’ll see what Postecoglou can cook with them, but I grant them 4.5/5 in advance. 

Midfield: 

Defense-focused: Höjbjerg, Bentacour, Maddison – €145M 

Probably the strongest area of the Spuds with plenty of options for rotation and competition. They have already established players and youngsters plenty to prove, but as long as the manager can stick to the best, they are not worse than Liverpool’s midfield, so 4.5 stars are justified. 

Attack: Son, Richarlison, Kulusevski – €148M 

They don’t have much depth in this department, but if they can keep this trio fit they would cause a lot of problems to the opponents. The South Korean is already 31, but he was one of the most feared and prolific attacker not long ago. Kulusevski is on the rise, and Richarlison is the first choice striker of the Brazilian national team, which makes them a force to reckon even without Kane. They might not be on par with Arsenal, but a 4/5 stars assessment is a safe bet here. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: GK 

Strengths:  

• No European football for distraction, at least for a year. 
• A particularly strong starting XI capable to beat any teams, especially at home. 
• Postecoglou is the proverbial dark horse, but know his trait 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Quality-wise thin squad sensitive to serious injuries, even though the size is crazy huge. 
• Since their talisman player hasn’t been properly replaced after a terrible season, confidence are supposed to be low. 
• A lot of key players has joined the team only this summer. 
• Postecoglou’s job is quite different than it was at Celtic; he now has to beat teams of better squad and higher budget 

• There are quite a few players who are expected to start but simply don’t belong to the first choice line-up. 

This is the new manager’s main challenge for the season. If he can disregard ‘tradition’, salaries, fan expectations and dressing room pressure, while sticking to the best XI (might not be the one I listed above – but probably is J – so kind of neglecting Lloris, Dier, Reguilon, Spence, Skipp, Ndombélé, Sarr, and especially Perisic), they can go pretty far. Unlike Arsenal, they need to limit rotation and if they can stick to the best formation and tactics, predicted – surprise – position at the end of the PL-campaign: 4. 

Newcastle United – 4-3-3 

Newcastle is the reason that the phrase ‘top 6’ is no longer in business. They are the parvenu / nuoveau rich club in the PL, whose market capitalization worth 2.5 as much as it was when the Saudi public investment fund took over in 2021. It not just the new players who add value to the club, but the successful performance doubled the worth of players like Joelinton, Almiron, even Willock. They are on a similar path to Artetas, as Mikel replaced the entire first team bar Saka, Martinelli and Saliba, and that’s exactly what Newcastle is doing (except for Schar, Almiron and Joelinton). 

Defense: Pope – Trippier, Botman, Schar, Burn – €96M 

I have a dilemma here. Based on the market value, this should be a 2-star defense at most. On the other hand they had the best defense last season in the entire PL, conceding 10 goals less than us, and I had no problem assessing our defense at 5 stars. Trippier is the best right back attacking-wise, Botman was Gabriel-esque genius signing, and Schar is probably the most reliable yet underappreciated defender in the league, mostly because he was signed cheap. When I grant them 4/5 stars, I feel I was too harsh. 

Midfield: Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton – €162M 

The jury is still out whether Joelinton is the best practice or the sole exception to the rule that you don’t reinvent an attacking midfielder into CM. The Brazilian started as a striker, joined Newcastle for his attacking prowess, and gradually moved to #10 to finally ending up at central midfield. His work-rate is crazy, as he efficiently supports both the defense and the offense. But other parts of the midfield aren’t weak either: even though City and Arsenal share the 2 best DMs, Chelsea has 2 from the top 5 and Newcastle has 2 from the 6-10 best in the word, making it a really strong department of the team. 4.5/5 

Attack: Almiron, Isak, Gordon – €140M 

I don’t see Newcastle games often, but I don’t think their attack is on par with their defense and midfield. Isak is a young, tall striker, but I wouldn’t evaluate him as Jesus, it must be the transfer price effect. The same applies to the wingers: Almiron is not world-class, and Gordon is still a promise not yet the finished article. I think this is a mid-table attack still capable to win games as the play in front of a great midfield and defense. Only 3.5/5 stars awarded, but time will tell. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: LB 

Strengths:  

• A sizeable budget, which is not spent by megalomaniac executives. 
• Smart transfers, introducing 2-3 key players per year signed to address squad weaknesses. 
• They were already strong last year, spending the majority of the season at 3^rd place 

• Loyal home supporters + a load of cretins all over the UK who happily forget/disregard the oil money in order to support a club finally not from London/Manchester/Liverpool 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Huge squad, 3^rd oldest in the league, full of players with no sales value 
• English bias. Club tradition to favor players and managers of native English speaking. Only Benitez as foreigner at the helm since Ruud Gullit stepped down in 1999, and a clear preference to go for players of English/Scottish/Irish/Australian origin when available (Ritchie, Gayle, Clark, Murphy, Rose, Caroll, Wilson, Lewis, Fraser, Willock, Hendrick, Wood, Burn, Trippier, Targett, Gordon, Pope, Barnes, Livramento, Hall). This could work for a Championship team or in a relegation battle, but might not be enough when competing against the very top clubs. 
• Similarly, Howe is a decent manager, but not necessarily the caliber of Klopp, ten Hag and the others.  

Newcastle United finished at 4^th last season which was a bit disappointing to them since they were at a better league position most of the time. Yet, it was an era when Liverpool, Chelsea, (eventual third) United and Tottenham were struggling big time, so this season I only predict them: 6.  

Aston Villa – 4-2-3-1 

There are usually two important/interesting questions apart from the silverware and the relegation. Will any of the top 7 teams finish beyond the top 7 positions? My answer was no. Who will be the best team outside the top 7? My money is on Aston Villa. Many of you are backing Brighton, as they play attractive – and often efficient – football, identify and develop the best talents, and if you read about how they operate the club, it’s impossible not to love them. If I would be a newbie in the PL and had to pick my favorite team solely based on rational arguments, I would be a Brighton fan too. Nevertheless, I expect even West Ham (the club with the best transfer window this summer) to finish above them – and it’s not in hindsight, check my prediction on their game las weekend. But I’m drifting away, let’s focus on Aston Villa. 

Defense: Martinez – Cash, Torres, Konsa, Digne – €138M 

A great defense always starts with a proper goalkeeper, and Emi Martinez is one of the best in the league. In the Torres transfer they managed to bring one of the best Spanish defender to Birmingham, and it was a financially good deal, too. They have decent full-backs, and since Mings has suffered a season-ending injury. Konsa will be the weak link in the backline. Carlos and Konsa are small for center backs, teams with significant aerial threat could punish them. Taken the fresh pair of CBs I give them a somewhat harsh 3.5/5 stars. 

Midfield: Kamara, Luiz, Ramsey – €112M 

We can see at Aston Villa’s midfield what happens when the hoarding mentality supersedes the transfer strategy. (See the Jesus + Vlahovic + Balogun + Nketiah + Trossard scenario) They have 7 strong and 1 former academy players for a 3-men position, excluding Buendia, but including Tielemans, who just became the club’s highest earner after his free transfer from Leicester City. McGuinn would be my choice to drop, but is in peak form and he is the club captain, so good luck to Emery to keep them all satisfied. Zainolo might play, but I doubt he becomes a starter. If they would be 3 players shorter I would have no problems giving them 4 starts out of 5, but it’s only 3.5/5 from me in these circumstances.  

Attack: Diaby, Watkins, Bailey – €118 

It will be interesting how Villa with not many quality options for attacking rotation would handle the double pressure, but Unay is the grandmaster of underdogs playing in Europe, so I would not write them off. This is quite a potent trident there, who have already scored 3 goals more than us. However, I would be comfortable with 4/5 stars as our attacking guys play below expectations while Villa’s trio is currently in overperforming mode. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: CB 

Strengths:  

• I’m not sure if Emery could have won the treble with the Manchester City team, but apart from his English language deficiencies he is the best manager and tactician when it comes to play against stronger teams, find and exploit their weaknesses. 
• They have acquired top players (Diaby, Torres) with winning mentality to complement their existing stars (Luiz, Watkins, Kamara, Martinez, Buendia) and young talents (Ramsey, Dhuran, Iroegbunam) 
• Their stadium is a fortress in home games. 
• The third smallest squad among the top 8 clubs, with not many changes to disrupt the development trajectory. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• It’s always a challenge to ‘undress’ the small club mentality. 
• The Villa squad is the second oldest of the top 8. 
• Unreasonable supply of quality players in midfield can easily lead to tension and discontent among players. 

Aston Villa’s performance last season is nothing short of miracle, especially after their 4 points of the first 6 games. But since the appointment of Emery they can’t seem to stop kicking ass. They made some surprising, high profile reinforcements, and they are reaping its harvest. I expect a strong presence in the Conference League and a similarly successful PL-campaign finishing in the position of: 8. 

Summary of the top 8 assessment based on final positions (club, stars combined, English players in the strongest XI): 

1. Arsenal 14,5 3 (Ramsdale, White, Rice) 

2. Man City 14 2 (Walker, Foden) 

3. Liverpool 13,5 1 (Alexander-Arnold) 

4. Tottenham 13 1 (Maddison) 

5. Man United 12,5 3 (Shaw, Mount, Rashford) 

6. Newcastle 12 4 (Pope, Trippier, Burn, Gordon/Barnes) 

7. Chelsea 11,5 2 (Chilwell, James) 

8. Aston Villa 11 3 (Konsa/Mings, Ramsey, Watkins) 

What were the weirdest prediction? 

Who would finish the lowest among the top 7? 

Which team would you bet to finish the strongest outside the top 7? 

See you in the comments! 

By Peter Barany

Here we go again, folks. PL#3 game is v Fulham and what a fine fixture this is. The Cottagers play fine football under Silva and Arsenal have made a good albeit not convincing start. We had to battle hard for those six points and lean heavily on our defence, but the boys did the job and the points are in the bag.

With the horrible red Mancs coming to the Home of Football next week, we need a really good win today to boost morale. And with two home games in a row (three out of four since the start) we have a great opportunity to build on those early wins. Of course, the biggest risk is to underestimate Silva’s men, and with Palhinha returning to Fulham’s midfield, they will make it difficult for us.

I wrote in a previous post that our left side is not ticking along as yet. We still miss Granit, and we need much more cohesion between the players there. A lot seems to be going through Bukayo and we have become a bit predictable as a result. Now, with the likely return of the Zinch as left back and possibly Gab Jesus, we should see an improvement, both on the left and through the middle. it has been a bit static until now, and with the added thrust of Zinchenko and movement up-front of Jesus, I think we will be dancing again.

Reading between the lines, I don’t think Jesus -the Dancer- will start today, but it is good to know that he is almost fully fit again. Eddie really is the perfect alternative: more of a line-dancer than a specialist in the Charleston, but it works somehow. IF he was any better he would not be our backup CF, and yet he is good enough to do a more than decent job every time he starts. Eddie is also still young and will develop further, so all good.

No Tomiyasu, after a ridiculous double yellow on Monday, probably means another start at right back for Thomas. I am still struggling with playing him there, as I feel he needs to be the back up for Declan Rice, and we all know that Partey is injury-prone. But Arteta knows best of course.

I am hoping that Big Gab will start again and that there is no fall-out between him and the manager. For the rest I expect the same players starting as in previous matches.

Predicted (and hoped for) Lineup:

Ramsdale

White-Tequila-Big Gab-Zinch

——Declan Rice——–

–The Ode—–Havertz–

Bukayo—Eddie—Marti

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners.

By TotalArsenal.

A great article about Bukayo. What a player.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/aug/25/bukayo-saka-nothing-worth-having-is-easy-its-about-how-much-you-want-it-arsenal

Squad analysis and chance prediction for the Premier League’s 2023/24 season – part I. 

Before the campaign kicks off, let’s quickly go through the top 8 teams (no offense, Brighton and Brentford, but it’s going to be two long posts anyway). I will take a look at the expected line-up in a Defense – Midfield – Attack structure using the TransferMarkt values as baselines, sum up their recent transfer activity (up to the time of the first round), and predict their final standing at the end of the season. The sequence will follow the total squad value in descending order. 

Obviously, there is plenty of time to conduct further business, sign or lose key players, so please take it within this context. There is a good chance that the second part will be posted after the first second has been played. Final disclaimer: I will look for the most valuable players in each position. However, that might not be in the case when teams prefer old but proven players to start, and when they use players out of position to cover. 

Manchester City – 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 

My “official” back 5: Ederson – Gomez, Dias, Gvardiol, Cancelo – €260M 

The expected back 5: Ederson – Aké, Dias, Gvardiol, Walker – €250M 

Despite having the 2 most valuable CBs of the world at the same club, I give the defense only 4.5/5 stars, due to the full back issues. Cancelo is expected to leave in the next few weeks, Walker might sign a new deal – but we know that it is usually followed by a serious dip in form – and neither Aké, nor Gomez is a world-class solution at LB. 

Midfield: Rodri, Kovacic, de Bruyne – €200M 

I think that midfield trio will be a rare sight. Guardiola might experiment with 2 attacking midfielders (especially as Alvarez is often moved there) making a sizeable favor to Arteta who also considers 2 AMs in the same line-up. To be fair: de Bruyne, Phoden, Silva and Alvarez are too good to have 2 on the bench (even if one of them plays winger). I give the midfield 4.5/5 stars, as I’m not a fan of Kovacic, but I may be too harsh as Rodri and KdB are the very best players at their respective position. 

Attack: Phoden, Haaland, Silva – €370M 

There is strong competition at LW (Grealish), but no real RW there (since Mahrez’ departure), as Silva used to play mostly AM in his early Manchester City years. Nevertheless this is a crazy strong trio, rating them 5/5 stars is a massive understatement.  

Their summer was a calm one. They did break the bank for Gvardiol, and they got an unfair cash injection for Mahrez, but that’s the usual water under the bridge. They lost Gündogan on a free transfer, though, which must have been a real blow. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: LB 

Strengths:  

• Moral high ground after winning the treble last season. 
• Guardiola is probably the best tactician of the era beyond the massive wealth of the club. 
• Strong squad with many quality players at almost all position to rotate properly. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Despite the unprecedented success in recent years and the generous wages many players abandon ship (Jesus, Zinch, Sterling, Mahrez, Gündogan, Cancelo) implying that Pep might be a more difficult person than we imagine. 
• Introducing academy lads to the team is always a risky investment, and the recent bunch of Lewis, McAtee, THB might not be as good as Phoden or Palmer. 
• City is the team with the most stars playing out of position: Aké & Akanji as LB, Stones as DM, Silva as RW, Alvarez as AM – that should backfire at some point. 
• Can they still maintain their hunger for further silverware? Can Haaland have a similarly insane campaign? Does Guardiola have anywhere to improve? I’m not sure… 

With many clubs timing their peak performance to encumber the majestic treble-winners. predicted position at the end of the PL-campaign: 2. 

Arsenal FC – 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 

Defense: Ramsdale – Timber/Zinchenko, Gabriel, Saliba, White – €257M 

While there are plenty of options at both full back positions, there are not really proper substitutes for the center back pair. Which might not be a terrible thing, as we don’t need a third 70M CB sitting on the bench, especially as many defenders have the versatility to play in multiple positions. Many of us thought that Zinchenko and White will be must start when fit, but we just started seeing what Timber brings to the table (unfortunately now injured)… Well if Mikel manages to handle the starting spots fairly and keep all players motivated, then it’s a 5 star defense, that will be extremely hard to penetrate if everybody is fit and individual errors are reduced. 

Midfield: 

Defense-focused: Rice, Partey, Odegaard – €215M 

Attack-minded: Rice, Havertz, Odegaard – €235M 

That will be a constant dilemma throughout the year. The former setup will limit the attempts on goal, and the latter could leave the defense exposed. Yet, with Havertz being the third most expensive signing and the top earner at the club, we might be seeing him more often paired with Martin than expected, regardless of them playing CMs in a 4-3-3 or AMs in a 4-1-4-1. We could even see all four of them if RB position is covered by Partey or if Havertz plays ST (neither of them are necessary wise choices, though). Arsenal needs time to practice and experiment nevertheless, but the 5/5 stars is undisputed. 

Attack: Martinelli, Jesus, Saka – €275M 

This is a no-brainer. The PL’s youngest winger-pair featuring a striker who divides every community whether he is under- or over-appreciated. I think we will see more from Gabby this season; I think I’m being fair by rating our attack at 4.5/5 stars.  

Sensitive/deficient first team position: NONE 

Strengths:  

• Young, balanced and success-hungry squad who is already a year more mature than last season. 
• High profile reinforcements from the early weeks of the summer. 
• Versatile players providing plenty of tactical options and in-game changes. 
• Victory at the Community Shield over our recent nemesis and main competitor Manchester City should give the squad plenty of confidence. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• The squad size is unacceptably large: even Mikel said that it is unsustainable. We should cut the team by 8-10, and there are only a few possible – permanent or loan – transfers even in the ‘rumour stage’. Focus should be on full backs (Soares, Tavares), midfielders (Jorginho, Elneny, Vieira) and RWs (Pepe, Marquinhos). 
• Apart from Elneny and Holding no player has CL experience in an Arsenal shirt, this new challenge could have an impact on the PL performance as well, as Arteta has to invent his rotation skills. 
• Currently we are not known of being a team of real competition for starting places. Always picking the ‘first choice’ players poses significant risks in the injury, morale, fatigue and predictability departments. 

With introducing proper rotation, plus smartly experimenting with formations and tactics, predicted position at the end of the PL-campaign: 1. 

Chelsea FC – 4-2-4 

I’m glad I chose the market values as startup-deciding factor, because I have no idea what should be the best setup for Chelsea, nor what would Pochettino pick. 

Defense: Sanchez – Chilwell, Fofana, Badiashile, James – €215M 

With Tiago Silva – still kicking despite turning 39 next month – and Disasi around the defense could look completely different. It (just like all other areas of Chelsea) looks like a random patchwork without any concept or strategy whatsoever. They have decent defenders there from the individual level, but only time will tell if my 3.5-star rating were too harsh or generous. 

Midfield: Fernandez, Caicedo – €155M 

Remember, at the time of writing the post Chelsea hasn’t played their opening game, and Caicedo seems to be joining them albeit Liverpool is willing to play more for the midfielder. It will make a significant difference where Moises will eventually sign, but I give them benefit of the doubt that they will unveil the Ecuadorian soon. While I’m sure that both of them were incredibly overpriced – making the Declan Rice deal look like a steal – they are fine players nevertheless, so a 4.5-star rating is sanctioned. 

Attack: Mudryk, Nkunku, Madueke, Jackson – €210M 

With no attacking midfielders in the squad, I predict Pochettino using Nkunku as a secondary striker – something Bergkamp did alongside a hardcore striker like Wright, Anelka, Kanu or Henry. Apart from Christopher the rest of the attackers are decent at best (demonstrated by the fact that the 4 players of Chelsea worth about 75% of Arsenal’s attacking trio). Mudryk will struggle with living up to his price tag, but Jackson could proce to be a shrewd deal as he had La Liga’s best “goals–xG” statistic last season. Still, that is a 3.5/5 attack. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: CB, RW 

Strengths:  

• Plenty of young talents at Pochettino’s disposal. 

• Most of the deadwood has been cleared in recent transfer windows; if Silva, Ziyech and Lukaku leaves Chlesea could cement itself as the youngest team in the PL for many years. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• Kudos to Chelsea for bringing academy players into the team, but Colwill, Chalobah, Hall, Gallagher, Hudson-Odoi or Broja are not Mount- or James-level generational talents. 
• Almost Arsenal-esque unsustainably large squad with 7 CBs and 4 LBs – without international competition – even after selling 8 and releasing 4 players.  
• The new owners are not skimpy when it comes to transfers, but either laymen or morons as no long-term strategy or concept can be found behind the recent signings. 

• Overpriced and overpaid players will be difficult to sell, unless the Saudi clubs keep bailing them out. 
• The jury is still out whether Pochettino is a tactical genius or a complete fraud who only won silverware with a club so standing out of its league that any of us could have done the same.  
• Even if he stands somewhere in between it will be an uphill task to fully rebuild the team and design a sustainable playing style and identity.  

Even with Caicedo joining it will be a time-consuming puzzle to transform Chelsea a functioning team from individual young talents; a vastly different challenge than the one Pochettino faced – and failed – at PSG. Predicted position at the end of the campaign: 7 (which is a huge step over last year’s 12^th). 

Manchester United – 4-2-3-1 

Defense: Onana – Shaw, Martinez, Varane, Dalot – €202M 

Despite this back-5 worth €13M less than Chelsea’s (on paper), I give them half a star more (4/5), because on one hand they really worth in that ballpark (while Chelsea traditionally overpaying its players, that reflects in their inflated, unreliable value), and also as they already have chemistry/synergies among them. Their CB pair is not the same level as their City rival’s or Arsenals, but that’s a needlessly high bar.  

Midfield: Casemiro, Mount, Fernandes – €175M 

Ten Hag likes to play attacking football, so I suspect we’ll see 1 DM + 2 AM engines in the other side of Manchester, too. The Brazilian had a strong debut season, and at 31 still not on the decline, making their midfield the strongest area. Time will tell whether Mason and Bruno will be able to contribute defensively, but for the time being I grant them 5/5 stars. 

Attack: Rashford, Hojlund, Anthony – €185 

United got themselves a tall striker, but it’s too early to tell if Rasmus Højlund is a one-off sensation or indeed a top striker. Anthony didn’t have an enthralling season, so I expect the Mancs to found wanting in this department, despite playing €170M for the pair. I rate their attack 3.5/5, and only because Rashford is indeed world class – yet with his new contract he might be less lethal than last year. 

Manchester United is famous for mistaking high profile signing with actually vital reinforcements. When the PL was not full of gas and oil money it was fine to overpay transfer fees and salaries to show how big of a club they are, but now they can’t stop spending money that would have been better to be invested elsewhere. That did make them the 4^th most valuable club in the PL (and #7 in the world), but I don’t think it would determine their PL-campaign, although I expect my prediction (a little below) being divisive. 

Sensitive/deficient first team position: ST 

Strengths:  

• Plenty of quality player for every position. 

• The League Cup trophy and their season finish could equip them with confidence. 
• Erik ten Hag is a master tactician. 

Weaknesses, disadvantages: 

• A crazy big squad (60% larger than Liverpool) that is a ticking bomb. Even have 3 more players than Arsenal, and our 32-heads are well beyond sustainable. 
• Erik ten Hag is a MU-level megalomaniac when it comes to transfers. Without a strategist in the scouting department this is only money spent, but the word “well” is always missing. 

• Last season they have conceded 7 against Liverpool, 6 vs. Man City, 4 at Brentford and 3 against Arsenal, Aston Villa and Sevilla – so they lack consistency, especially in the back. 
• They have a brand new goalkeeper and striker (applies to Chelsea and Tottenham, too), they have major change in midfield, that takes time to optimize. 

I’ve seen pundits foreseeing them becoming champions and many more guessed they finish ahead of us, but they haven’t seen Tropic Thunder. Predicted position at the end of the campaign: 5. 

Who will finish at positions, 3, 4, 6 and 8? Stay with us as it will be revealed later this week. 

Did you agree with the assessment? What did you find the most outrageous?  

By Peter Barany

Our first game of the season and three points in the bag. Where we at our best? No. Did the boys show glimpses of what is to come? Yes. What is clear is that Arteta is making changes and a bit of sweaty rust needs shaking off.

Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest: Eight Observations:

1. In these sort of home games Arteta may be choosing to play three (or even two) at the back and push one of the full backs forward: 2-3-2-3?. Both Partey and Timber pushed up into midfield a lot, and especially Thomas was often high up supporting the attack. I really liked this yesterday: both gave us extra cover behind the attackers and had lots of the ball. The risk is of course that we are a little narrow this way with the flanks exposed for a blistering counter-attack. We got truly stung by one of those. It did not cost us in the end but we need to learn from it: teams will be trying to do this at the Emirates all season long.
2. Of all the three signings Timber has adapted the quickest. What a shame then that he got injured and I fear we may be missing him for a while. Declan is slowly playing himself into the team as the deeper laying midfielder and Kai is also finding his feet in the team. Integrating these three clearly gifted players will take some time it seems, and I did miss Granit quite a bit yesterday.
3. I thought the team played very mature in the first half. It did not rush but gradually turned the screw and started to create chances. We use the wings better than most teams and with Martinelli and Saka we just have two formidable weapons. Through the centre we remain a work in progress, and we really missed Jesus’ mobility to open up space and create chaos from there. Eddie is not that sort of player but he will take a chance quicker than the Brazilian, and that’s goes a long way in football. Martinelli’s pirouette and Saka’s speedy reacting to get himself in a shooting position with his formidable ‘Robben left foot’ won us the game. I was also pleased with Eddie’s goal: rather than snatching at the first opportunity, he moved the ball more centrally before hammering it home. Yes, there was a slice of luck with a light deflection but Eddie maximised the opportunity, and it would have been some block to stop him from there.
4. What to do with Kai Havertz? Kev mentioned a few days ago that he looked a bit like Giroud in our game v Man City. I thought that too and I wonder whether playing him as a CF with his back towards the opponent’s goal is the best way forward. He has presence and good upper body strength, is a threat in the air AND can turn and add nr10 sort of attacking passes for those who move into the space behind him. Playing him in the ‘Xhaka position’ is not really working yet, especially with Timber (and soon the Zinch) pushing high up into his area. His partnership with Martinelli also remains a work in progress, but then many struggle to build one with the somewhat single-minded Brazilian. Early days, but one to watch and I welcome your thoughts on this.
5. What happens to the team once a comfortable lead has been established? We do seem to become less intense once we go 2-0 up, and then it all looks like we cannot get back into it again. Last season we played some of the best half games I have ever seen, only to totally underwhelm in the second half. We need a way to deal with this and I think Declan Rice, and better use of our subs, is the answer to it. Now, I think the players have been told to preserve their energy better this season; it is going to be a long one and we don’t want burnout five games before the end of the season again. I could tell the players were trying to do so in the second half, but it does not work with pushing up our opponents into their own half. This requires high levels of pressing and movement, and they were not doing that. We need to sit back more after going two or three up and preserve energy, whilst playing a bit more on the counter. This is where I believe Rice, who should really become our captain, will start making a difference going forward.
6. Another observation is that Arsenal look to have more physical presence on the pitch now. Timber, Havertz and Rice are all big, tall and athletic and it shows. I remember seeing the Invincibles at Goodison Park many years ago and their on-pitch physical presence was just awesome. (You don’t notice it as much on TV). I don’t think anyone will bully this team anymore.
7. The Ode is getting back to his best. Martin always works hard but he looked a bit rusty and unfocused in pre-season. Not so yesterday. He made some fine passes and created space for himself and others with clever moves with and without the ball. I also noticed that he was trying to involve the left flank as much as the right one, whilst also using the middle to create danger.
8. Leaving out Big Gab was a surprise. Maybe it was a little punishment for allowing Man City a couple of too easy chances from his area in defence (one went in) a week ago. Or maybe Arteta is planning to rotate the CBs more regularly this season. It is really good to have so many quality defenders to pick from now, and why not experiment a bit to see which duo/trio at the back works best?

Remember it is all about getting fitter and sharper at this stage, and as long as we are not dropping (too many) points it is all good. So well done the boys and bring on Palace.

By TotalArsenal.

So here we go. A new season, a team that has grown organically and through shrewd additions, and a chance to win the title. Will we win it this time round? Well, I will leave that for the next post, but we are certainly not seen as the favourite for it according to the pundits. Man City to me look on the way down; it may not happen this season but there is something about that team that tells me the inevitable descent is starting. Haaland or no Haaland; the future is red and white.

Anyway, you know I am a big believer in OGAAT and let’s just focus on the next one indeed.

The line-up:

So Partey at right back, and White and Big Sal as CBs, with Timber on the left in defence.

Rice sits deep and two attacking midfielders to keep Forest in their own half and try and find the gaps.

Up-front the young boys to drive the defence mad and score the goals.

It will be interesting to see whether NF sit back as expected or try to give us a game of proper football. Hopefully it is the latter.

Biggest risk is of course to underestimate the opponent. An early goal against and this could become one of those frustrating ones.

So focus please boys and get the job done as soon as possible. It is a long season, so let’s start strong and decisive.

Come On You Rip Roaring Beautiful Gunners!

By TotalArsenal.