How important is it to have absolute top players in most positions?
If you started to read this post only because you are intrigued by this question, I can save you some time. I don’t know. Moreover, I’m not sure that this post will bring us closer to the answer. However, the following season hopefully will.
I will try to analyze the current squad by positions, to see how far our strongest XI is behind the absolute elite. And I’m not talking about the top teams here, but the very best players in each position. For the sake of simplification, I will call the 1-3 players elite, the 4-10 world class, and the 11-25 as top players.
A final disclaimer: this is not a fact-sharing post. You’ll read merely my opinion on our first choice players in comparison with their peers, but that’s inevitably subjective. I’ll do my best to refrain from being partial or prejudicial, and even if I’m biased, it is probably in favor of the player. Nevertheless it’s perfectly right if you have a different evaluation, and don’t hesitate to challenge my assessments. (Update after reading the post: I was probably more often hard on players than generous. Be kind in the comments.)
Before we jump into the task, think with me a bit. When did Arsenal have someone from the absolute top 3 players in any position in their ranks? Did we ever? Obviously Thierry Henry was one, and in this blog I suspect we can grant this award to our non-flying Dutchman as well. But was Pires or Ljungberg a top 3 winger? I don’t think so. There were players like Ronaldinho, Figo or the young CR7 there. Maybe Vieira was top 3 at his peak, but Fabregas had strong competition from Scholes, Schweinsteiger, Gerrard, Xavi, Lampard and others. Furthermore, I don’t think RvP was top 3 either (Rooney, Drogba, Müller, Eto’o), nor was Aubameyang (Benzema, Lewandowski, Kane, Morata, Firmino, old CR7). I believe the first and only time Arsenal had a top 3 player in the team since Henry was Alexis Sanchez (and it didn’t turn out too well, either).
So I’m not saying it is a must to have a few elite players in the team in order to win silverware (see Leicester) or Champions League (see Marseilles, Porto, Inter). It’s not a disadvantage though, but even top teams don’t (can’t) have top3 players in all positions. Maybe a couple, and the rest of the starting XI can consist of ‘only’ world class players and some others from the top.
Yes, I picked this topic up, because I’m convinced that next season we will have an elite player in our squad. (Again, it is not suitable to compare teammates from different positions, but a certain player with the best athletes from his own position.) To save you the suspense: he is going to be Declan Rice.
But fortunately – spoiler alert – we are so well equipped with world class players all over the squad that I believe we have plenty of chances to collect 90 points in the PL and reach the semi-final in the CL and domestic cups. At the very least.
Let’s start from striker towards goalkeeper. Gabriel Jesus is one of the tricky customers. I’m not entirely sure whether he is a world class (4-10) forward, or only top (11-25), he qualifies for both assertions. Next season will help us decide. Jesus is not elite (Haaland, Mbappé, Osimhen, Kane), but he doesn’t have to be. If he can play like he did at the beginning of the recent season, we are properly covered with the first choice striker, especially as Haaland and Mbappé are making around 1M/week. I don’t know nor care if they deserve it, this is not the direction we should move in my opinion.
Right wing. And the first controversial position. I will not be popular, but despite many of you may think that Bukayo Saka is the best RW in the world, I think he is not elite just yet. However, I expect him to become one in the next couple of years. Salah, Rodrygo, Messi, Mahrez are still ahead of him. Not more valuable, just better as of now. But 3 of them are above 30, so Saka will compete with Gnabry, Raphina, Diaby, Dembele and Rodrygo in the future to see who joins the elite.
At the left wing, it is easier. We all know that Martinelli is not yet elite (Vinicius Jr, Phoden, Rashford, Kvaratskhelia), but there is no doubt that he is already world class. However this group is balanced and a truly strong one with Leao, Grealish, Neymar, Diaz, Coman, Gakpo, Sterling, Son, Mudryk and Jota fighting for the 7 places in the category. (It’s possible that Trossard has his stake in the 11-25 positions, but the jury is still out.)
Attacking midfield. I hope I don’t get lynched, but at the moment I see Odegaard similar to Saka. He is a criminally good player still on the rise, but unfortunately not yet at the level of de Bruyne, Fernandes or Musiala, but already at the level of Maddison, Wirtz and Silva. You may accuse me of high expectations, but expect Martin to level up, and I plan to buy my second Arsenal jersey with his name on the back to provide company to my only Bergkamp shirt. Kai Havertz detto: he is also world class, no doubt about that. We’ll see how he can reinvent himself as an AM and/or B2B midfielder.
I already spoiled the defensive midfield: Declan Rice is the best player there along with Rodri. Tchouaméni, Fernandez, Kimmich and Caicedo are mighty fine players too, but simply below Declan. Thomas Partey was a top DM, but never close to the elite, and probably his world class days are also over.
We don’t really have central midfielders since Xhaka’s departure – who was probably never a world class player, but with his leadership, presence and off-pitch support he was one of the most valuable and most underappreciated individuals at the club – but we probably don’t need one. Against the few strong opponent, we can play in 4-2-3-1 with 2 DMs (I don’t find either Partey or Jorginho a liability paired with Rice) plus a single AM, and against regular or lesser teams we can play 4-1-4-1 with the insane attacking 4 of Martinelli-Havertz-Odegard-Saka right behind the striker. Would you be interested, I think the elite CMs all play in Spain: Pedri, Bellingam, de Jong and Valverde (Gavi).
The good news is that we have 2 world class center backs. According to TransferMarkt Gabriel Magalhães is only top (#14), but I think he is underestimated. I would love to say that Saliba is expected to become elite, but unfortunately, all the top defenders are 22-26 years old, so it will be a tough task to overtake Dias, Gvardiol, de Ligt or Militao. I have faith in William nevertheless. We don’t know yet where Timber will play, but based on his market price he is a top CB and a world class RB.
Regarding both Ben White and Oleksander Zinchenko I have the unpopular opinion that while at the first half of the season they seemed to be world class defenders, by the end of the season they were ‘only top players’ to me. Both of them are strong passers and expert at carrying the ball, so obviously suitable for Arteta’s style of football, but neither of them are good enough when it comes to crossing, and their defensive contributions – in terms of tackles and interceptions – are average at best. Neither of them are liabilities per se, but almost every major club have full backs of similar quality (James, Hakimi, TAA, Trippier, Cancelo, Porro, Frimpong, Pavard, Grimaldo, Davies, Mendes, Balde, Hernandez, Shaw, Robertson, Chilwell, Estupinan, Cucurella). Before being labelled as too harsh, I believe we are way ahead of City in full backs (their only left back, Gomez, isn’t even a top 25 guy, and on the right flank – with the expected departure of Cancelo and Walker – they won’t have quality players either, while we have a world class and 3 top players already). They will either invest heavily in these positions or will play with their non-starting CBs like Aké and Stones at the flanks.
Personally I would prefer to use Timber as starting RB and White as the defensive utility sub. And at left back we either have to turn up the competition among Zinchenko, Tomiyasu and Tierney (whom I hope will stay, but after several glimpses of brilliance he didn’t turn out to become the best LB in the PL, falsifying my predictions), or buy reinforcements there, as this is the only (?) position where I claim we don’t have even world class players at the moment. Thank god we didn’t sign Castagne, though.
I’m afraid I have to sign off on a controversial note. Many of you are surely familiar with CIES Football Observatory’s report on Ramsdale being the most valuable goalkeeper on the planet. Well, even though this was not obviously a sponsored content from Aaron’s agent, I have to respectfully disagree. There are not many shot-stoppers clearly better than Arsenal’s #1, but there are plenty who are not obviously worse either. I have nothing against Ramsdale, he is enthusiastic, he likes to play out from the back and he is capable of brilliant moments, but he does have the tendency to produce high profile errors signature to the club’s goalkeepers in the last decade. Is Aaron among the 10 best GKs of the world? Hell, based on last season I’m not sure if he is amongst the PL’s top 10. So, for me he is ‘only’ a top player, with plenty of potential to realize – starting with next season.
To summarize I think with the imminent arrival of Declan Rice we will have a enormously capable starting lineup (at 4-1-4-1) with a single elite marquee, 4-5 almost elite world class players, the same amount of ‘regular’ world class players without the pressuring expectation to become the very elite, and a handful of dependable, top guys, who can break into the world class category any time. Plus almost 10 success-hungry youngsters (academy unfortunately excluded) breathing down their necks, even though we will inevitably say goodby to at least a few of them. Looking at the €754M starting XI – that by itself is worth more than all other clubs bar 8 (TransferMarkt) – I am looking forward to the upcoming season with confidence.
I planned to share my further conclusions, but this post is really long and tiresome already. Let’s discuss your view on our players in the comments, and we can draw conclusions in a follow-up post next week.