You can kinda split this and any season up into sections, manageable sections, bites if you like, so that you can plan ahead but not too far because it could possibly give you sleepless nights if that’s in your particular personality.
For me it’s just totally exciting, I’m loving this season, it’s enough to make me want to croon, or maybe play a didgeridoo. I’ve so enjoyed the previous two seasons despite the ultimate disappointment of missing out to the ersatz club in Eastlands. This one feels a bit more serious if you get my gist?
Anyway, we’ve just come through what you could describe as our opening section, one that included some of the most difficult games we’ll face this season and as we take a deep breath during the Interlull it’s satisfying to see where we are?
Nicely tucked away among the main protagonists for the title and looking far more resilient and resourceful than in our previous two campaigns, No over-celebrating, not that I ever saw that as a problem personally and dealing with the oft repeated setbacks of injuries and two tier officiating with a Churchillian stiff upper lip.
We’re nicely situated in the Champions League mega table, keeping a low profile and allowing the many cretins in the media to rabbit on about other contenders whilst we prepare to accumulate the necessary points to finish top eight.
The much maligned League Cup has proved to be an enjoyable distraction allowing Arteta the latitude to play some youngsters this season after some previously terrible draws, some of these youngsters will be major components as the season progresses. The next tie in the League Cup will be tough but get through that and you’re only three games from Wembley and the chance of an early piece of silverware which might just be the catalyst for this group to do something special…
I’m looking at the next 10 fixtures, split by the final Interlull of 2024 thankfully. There are 6 PL games, the LC tie at Preston and 3 CL fixtures, but what is noticeable is that it’ll be very much Arsenal On the Road because 7 of those games will be away, necessitating a lot of tiring travel.
Arsenal on the road doesn’t actually bother me at all because this squad is set up to dig in and grind out the results when necessary. I think we sometimes look more vulnerable at home where expectations can be a tad unrealistic.
I never thought we’d beat Southampton 5-0 last weekend, football doesn’t work that way, but we did find a way to win and that’s all that matters. This team has improved from 12 months ago, our players have grown, our coaching staff have grown and our manager has grown and if you can’t take anything from that, then I’m glad I’m not in your world.
Fortunately this blog in general is one of endless sunshine, light and enjoyment.
As a matter of fact, and for many reasons, PSG will be a test.
First, because they will try to hurt us as in England, only City and ‘Pool were dead set on doing when traveling to London, in the latter seasons. Maybe even more so, since we have to keep in mind that they know, the journalists know, the fans know that at ” home ” they’ll win the double, again, this season. As a consequence of which, their season’s real assessment is based on CL performances only.
To tell you how true this is, their home win (I repeat: their win!) against Girona ten days ago almost triggered the start of a crisis, because their display had been so poor. For them, and all the usual observers of French football – starting with the ” L’Équipe guys ” for whom the flat EEG of French football is a nightmare, they love nothing more than a PSG crisis – even a draw will be deemed unacceptable. Which is why they won’t bother much about us, and will play on their strengths, the main of which being … their midfield.
Now that Mbappé is gone, that Ramos is injured, and since Enrique doesn’t rate Kolo-Muani, there’s a fair chance they will play with a ” false 9 “, which they’ve done for the last 3 or 4 games, with Asensio ” upfront “. But he might not be back from injury, which means their 3-man midfield will be Zaïre-Emery/Neves/Vitinha, while the fourth man is very likely to be Ruiz. Whether it be Asensio or Ruiz anyway, well … this is a technically very, very strong engine room, all the more so since they’ve been Enrique-drilled for a year now, and we all know how obsessed he is with not giving the ball away foolishly.
So much so that, as far as possession is concerned, I don’t think we will get the better of them, which we shouldn’t have too many bad dreams about, since the latest version of Mikel’s Arsenal has been so impressive defensively. But … there’s giving up possession and there’s giving up possession, isn’t there? It would be suicidal to let them enjoy 70% or more of it, which is why (back to square one) either Leandro, or Kai, has to go, imo, so we can field a third man in midfield by Declan and Thomas’s side. My pick would be – however impressive Ethan’s cameo may have been yesterday – Jorginho, so as to play Declan in a (much) more advanced position.
As for our CF I’d go with Leandro who is an incredibly smart, streetwise forward, our one and only cold-blooded assassin in the box too … but I think it’s ” Smudge ” Kai who will get the nod, and that’s fine with me as well, even though I think he’s not at his best right now … but he has that mean streak which allows him never to have a 100% ” off ” day.
Whether this is the kind of lineup Mikel has in mind or not (I’m not sure about this at all, I think he might decide to keep on with the Leandro-Kai pair), our guy upfront will get opportunities, since their ” weakness ” (if I could use a dozen inverted commas there, I would) certainly is their central defense. Marquinhos has been on the wane for a few seasons already, but will play (and skip them), while the new boy Pacho looks good, but is finding his feet at the moment. Lucas Hernandez’s absence is a terrible blow to them, imo, but I’m biased here. I think Lucas is one of the very best French defenders … ever. I keep thinking he’s the unsung hero of the 2018 WC, when he was our best player – not Pogba, not Lloris, Not Mbappé, not Kanté, not Griezmann … Lucas! (I can’t bear the recollections of Anfield ’89 leaving Kevin Richardson out of the praise either, but that’s another story of course). (1) (2) Tuesday’s game will be a war of the Titans … on the wings. I agree with all you have said, TA, in your previous post about Marti, Bukayo, Jurrien, and 2024 Maldini, but the four of them will be put to the test Tuesday night. The Saka-Mendes showdown will be a game within the game. The whole point will be which one will turn the other into a defender. If Bukayo does so, and keeps Mendes on the back foot, he’ll have won a decisive victory for the whole team, given how dangerous the Portuguese is when he can turn into a winger. Upfront, on the left, there will be Barcola, who is the brand new French wonderkid. He’s a free-spirit, Bradley, constantly inventing, improvising, you never know whether he’ll choose to go wide and look for an assist, or dart inside and try to get his name on the scoresheet; he will be Jurrien’s first very significant test.
The same could be said of the other wing, and I don’t see how Riccardo could do anything but focus on defending. I don’t know how much you know of Dembelé, guys, but believe me he’s a true wizard, a dribbling magician. Of course once he has dribbled past his defender, he often looks like a barking dog having finally caught the car he was chasing … and who doesn’t know what to with it, but he has improved his scoring output lately, so our legionary will have to stand his ground, put Ousmane under constant pressure. Lastly, there’s the Hakimi-Martinelli duel: Gab has picked the perfect moment to get his form back, hasn’t he? I think he can prevail, disturb Hakimi with his futsal style of dribbles, as well as thwart him when the Moroccan wanders upfront.
So … a classic you never know, of course, but I’d be very disappointed if we were no treated to a true CL night, round-of-8 level at least …
Serious plot twist(s) about tomorrow’s game – what’ll take place on our left flank in particular.
What’s sure is that Dembelé won’t play. He’s rumoured to have had a “heated” (understatement) argument with Enrique after the Rennes game. Looks like the Spaniard didn’t like it one bit, so much so that Ousmane won’t even make the trip to London. His usual backup is the Korean Lee Kang-in, a muscular, fast, hard-working left-footed RW, who’s the perfect, relentless team player, but is not at Ousmane’s level … More worrying are the news about Calafiori, who’s said to have been seriously (??) injured in stoppage time against Leicester. Let’s hope this is clickbait nonsense, otherwise Myles Lewis-Skelly, in the absences of Ben-Kieran-Oleksander-Tomi … is very likely to be given the first start in CL of his so-promising young career. The lad would have to rein in his attacking instincts, though, otherwise Lee might wreak havoc in the open space in our back line … I do hope the Riccardo rumours will turn out to be nothing at all – the importance he has taken in our setup, in so little time, is nothing short of mind-blowing.
Having first listened to the whole game and then watched it for the first time this morning, I have thoroughly enjoyed Arsenal’s contest with the Foxes, and I am glad that the boys were re-taught a lesson without having to pay for it. The excellent Arsenal.com radio commentary pictured for me a first half in which we totally dominated, and there was even a suggestion that, the way things were going, Arteta could give the youngsters some time in the second half. Getting that second goal in extra time created a real feeling that the game was in the bag.
But football is a great game because it has it’s own laws of logic and is always able to to throw a surprise at us. The Foxes scored very soon after the re-start from a free-kick, helped by a big deflection, and their tails were well and truly up. All of a sudden we had much less control in midfield and Leicester was particularly strong on their left side – our ride side – and soon we had another surprise: a superb technical effort by the all-round impressive Justin found the back of the net, and all of a sudden Arsenal’s two-goal lead had evaporated.
Now we had a real game on our hands, and Hermansen seemed determined to do a Raya on us with a number of superb stops from all sorts of efforts by the boys. It took till the 95th minute before we finally, and fortuitously, scored the winner. It was definitely deserved but it was still a bit harsh on the Foxes who I thought fought hard throughout the match and never allowed us to just play our game, including in the first half. As a result the boys had to work really, really hard to get the three points. It goes to show that there are no easy games and that we need to remain focussed for the entire game. Next time round we are likely to be less lucky and vital points will be dropped.
Eight quick observations:
We have our left side back. I wrote about this a short while ago: the arrival of Calafiori is great news for Martinelli. He pushed forward constantly and his style of play is reminiscent of Granit. Calafiori has a similar strong and versatile left foot and his strength and intelligence on the pitch also reminded me of our former Swiss maestro. Yes the Italian is our left full back and Xhaka was a midfielder for us, but their contributions to the team are very similar. Martinelli got plenty of service from the Italian and Declan, and with a goal and an assist I would imagine he slept very well last night.
Saka was once again quietly magnificent. Bukayo is the King of Assists with 5 in 6 games; and he has already created 20 chances, more than any other PL player except McNeil at Everton. He did not get another assists today, but despite Leicester double marking him and giving him as little space as possible, Saka was a constant threat. His first touch is fabulous, his passing is sharp, his decision-making is so mature and his unpredictability keeps astounding me.
We had two very good functioning wings but the middle is still a work in progress. With the Ode gone we lack a player that can open up defences right through the middle. I think we all feel that Nwaneri is the man to do it and sooner or later Arteta will have to start him in the nr10 position. He certainly made an instant difference when he came on, late in the game. Playing both Havertz and Trossard through the middle is certainly a work in progress: it feels like duplication at times.
I am a bit disappointed in Declan’s start of the season. He works as hard as ever, but his creative/attacking contributions are below par imho. He just does not seem his former self somehow, and I wonder what’s causing this.
Although, as per my third point, I am not sure whether playing both Havertz and Trossard centrally in attack is an entirely good thing, it cannot be argued that they both work hard and are excellent at positioning themselves dangerously in the box. Especially the Belgian is a master at this. At times I had forgotten he was on the pitch, and I guess the same goes for the opposition’s defenders. He worked himself into great positions and on another day he would have scored a hattrick. Both Havertz and Trossard ended up on the score-sheet, so maybe this combination is to be continued for a while.
Timber had a very good game in terms of supporting the attack, and especially Saka – who really is missing the Ode – is benefiting from this. Yet, there is work to be done in terms of defending our right flank. Timber is a fine defender but White and Saliba have a great mutual understanding of what needs doing when and where, and there were too many gaps in that area of which Leicester took full advantage. I thought Partey did well in supporting the attack, but he was also guilty of leaving too much space for the Foxes’ attacks in that area.
Still, the additions to the first team of the full backs Timber and Calafiori have made us a stronger team all round. We have two new beasts on the flanks and they really are adding another dimension to our play.
Finally, the press are trying to produce a new managerial heavy-weight rivalry between Giardiola and Arteta. These rivalries are of course fun to write about, and creating a rift between the two is therefore worthwhile. I think Pep’s lesser command of the English language is not helping here, as it can easily be misinterpreted. But I am sure that both Spaniards will not fall for it. On the other hand, both sets of players may well enter a period of bitter rivalry, and I am all for it. It looks more and more that Arteta is putting together a team that has the best of Graham and Wenger: steel, cheek, athleticism, style, quality, hunger and tenacity. A mighty red and white storm is coming towards Arsenal’s PL rivals, and they all know it.
A home draw against League One opposition made for a pleasant change and an opportunity for Mikel Arteta to give some of his current generation of youngsters some minutes in a senior match. It was my second visit of the season to the Emirates and I thoroughly looked forward to and was confident of seeing the Arsenal manager pick an interesting squad. He didn’t disappoint.
Bolton Wanderers are not the Bolton Wanderers of the Sam Allardyce era but they’re not a Sunday league team from the Hackney Marshes either, so Arteta needed to be sensible in selecting a balanced team that would allow our youngsters to perform safe in the knowledge that there would be some experience around to lend a guiding hand whilst allowing them the opportunity and freedom to express themselves. Bolton’s goal came from this freedom to express but the old heads steadied the ship and no damage was done. It’s all part of the learning process and why it’s irresponsible to expect the manager of a big serious club to play a team of kids in a senior game.
A brutal run of Premier League, Champions League and Internationals had eaten into the Arsenal squad so much so that 16 year old Jack Porter made his senior debut in goal, 18 months to two years before he was I feel properly ready, but needs must and young Jack performed well all things considered. He had a nervy start but did well when punching clear from a corner from amongst a gaggle of players. The defence didn’t pass back to him as often as usual but had the common sense to protect him and not put him under undue pressure. He could do little about the Bolton goal, probably going to ground a little early but given the experience of playing in front of several thousand Bolton fans who no doubt gave him plenty of helpful tips on his goalkeeping, he actually came out the game with plenty of positives.
Josh Nichols made a good impression in the US tour and he didn’t tarnish that impression with a solid and dependable display at right-back, Arteta was obviously happy with what he saw from Josh as he played the full 90+ minutes. He had to contend with a few robust Bolton challenges early in the game but as his confidence grew so did his performance and he can feel very satisfied with his nights work. Good things happen to you if you work hard and you have talent and Josh is proof of that.
Myles Lewis Skelly is a wonderfully gifted and versatile young man who fitted into the floating role from left back, joining the midfield and creating some excellent openings for his team mates. He linked up with Raheem Stirling faultlessly and as if he’d been playing 1st team for months, he is another from this impressive group who graduated together from Hale End, you won’t get quality like this every year despite your wishes to believe it’s so, but anyone whose watched youngsters come through the youth team as long as I have can tell when there’s a special class of youngsters and we are currently seeing a special group develop. Myles left the field with a leg injury which I hope isn’t too serious because he’s going to get plenty of minutes this season and Arteta will need him.
Ethan Nwaneri is the poster boy from this class of youngsters, every big club wanted him before he signed professional but he trusted Arteta and Arteta has trusted him. Ethan like Josh played the full 90+ minutes and he scored two goals. I’m sure that there’s plenty more goals to come from him and I’m certain he’ll get plenty more minutes this season. He has a beautiful low centre of gravity as he switches direction and sprints away from opponents, his first goal was a testament to his speed and anticipation as Stirling’s low cross evaded the onrushing Jesus but didn’t evade Ethan who tucked it away. His second goal came via the intelligent anticipation of Declan Rice who dispossessed a Bolton player and passed to Ethan, Declan ran for the return but Ethan had only eyes for the goal and put it away with aplomb.
Declan had earlier scored the Arsenal opener via a deflection from a Nichols low cross and overall enjoyed a satisfying evenings work before being substituted. Kai Havertz came on and scored the 5th after smart work from Stirling, I always enjoy seeing our tall German hit the net.
Stirling himself ended his goal drought after fine work from Jesus and the imperious Saka who showed us some of his many trick to bamboozle the Bolton left-back and put it on a plate for Raheem.
Kiwior got the chance to play centre back as did Califiori and both sailed effortlessly through the match eventually being replaced by Gabriel and another debutee in Maldini Kacurri. I didn’t see much after the Havertz goal as I had to leave early, therefore I missed the debut of Kabia who replaced Stirling on 81 minutes.
So 4 debutees and 2 earning their full debuts in a very compelling and competitive cup tie against experienced, seasoned professionals looking to cause an upset. In another era Arsene Wenger would be lionised as a purveyor of youth by playing 6 youngsters, but, alas some still carry a pathological dislike of our present manager so 6 youngsters playing in the 1st team will be dismissed and ignored. It says much about them I suppose!
Honourable mentions in dispatches for Jesus, who worked tirelessly but cannot buy a goal for love nor money, Jorginho who was like everyone’s favourite Dad going around spreading a calming influence and no doubt a calming word and Martinelli who despite doing enough running in recent matches to win a marathon still came on and fizzed about.
Credit to the players, credit to the fans, many able to visit the Emirates for the first time in ages, credit to the Arsenal coaching staff and credit to Mikel Arteta who proved irrevocably that he will use youngsters, but only if they’re good enough…
Another epic battle and defensive masterclass, another referee who sticks to the rules when it comes to Arsenal but lacks consistency, another great result: this Arsenal is up for the title battle alright!
Manchester City 2 – 2 Arsenal: 8 Observations
What a battle of the Giants this was. This certainly was the battle between Big Gab and Saliba on one hand and the Norwegian Berserker on the other; and then there was the battle between the rest of the two teams. Haaland scored a fine goal, benefiting from the space the defenders left between them – we conceded a similar one against Brighton – and the goalkeeper coming out of his goal where it would have been better for him to stay between the poles. But after that he was in the pockets of our Brazilian-French central defenders and looked more and more pathetic. Throwing the ball against big Gab’s head from the back at the end of the game was cowardly, but our Brazilian giant did not even notice it; that’s how cool he is. Gabriel’s goal was a thing of beauty: they all knew it was going to happen and so it did. This mini-battle within the big battle was a joy to watch.
What a goal by Calafiori! And what a first start in his Arsenal career! Tomiyasu, White, Timber and Calafiori, Zinchenko, Kiwior and Tierney: have we ever had a better lot of full backs to choose from?! I know they are also cover for our centre backs, but boy oh boy what an army of defenders we have at our disposal.
The sending off: the referee makes a bad call, not by the letter of the law, but by his inability to understand the disconnect between the severity of the offense and the impact on this top, top football game. There was also inconsistency, as a similar action by a City player went unpunished. Football is emotion, and I cannot see why Trossard’s kicking the ball away is worthy of a yellow card when time simply can be added on. To me it looked like the referee was trying to make good on an advantage he had been perceived to have given to Arsenal which led to our equaliser. 11 v 11 would also have been a tight game in the second half, but I think we all sensed that Arsenal were on their way to a glorious victory at the blue oil rig.
I am happy with any set of rules as long as they are clear to all and consistently applied. The latter is a pipe-dream, and we have to learn to live with it. |Therefore, Mikel, I think you need to substitute anyone who receives a yellow card in the game immediately. If experienced players like Rice and Trossard can fall victim to this then anybody can. Of course I am joking, but this double-yellow-card-becomes- quickly-a-red-car change in refereeing is definitely a risk for our title-campaign.
The second half was a masterclass of keeping out a team, and what a team performance this was. Everybody fought like lions and stuck to the task tremendously well. The equaliser fell very, very late and was the result of fatigue. For once the boys left too much space and our defensive walls were finally cracked open. But we all know that this defensive performance, whilst building further on similar stellar performances against Brighton, Villa and Spuds, will frighten our next opponents significantly. Let’s just make sure we keep all 11 players on the pitch in the foreseeable future.
Going forward, one thing to do better is breaking out of these deep, defensive positions, especially with a man less. For this we need players who are strong and good at keeping the ball for a few seconds to allow fellow players to come out and find a bit of space. None of our attackers excelled at this, and as a result the team struggled to get breathers in the second half.
This was another brilliant performance by David Raya: he reacts so quickly and his arm is so decisive and strong and he almost looks unbeatable.
Saka’s delivery from corners is as important as Big Gabs timing and finishing. The two Gunners have such a great connection when it comes to time and space and long may it continue.
It is quite unbelievable that Arsenal’s fifth game is the third hard-away game of the new season. Villa and Spuds were put to the sword, but the today’s challenge against the alleged money-dopers is of course the biggest challenge of them all. Arteta has been brilliant in front of the camera regarding this tough sequence of games, which was made even harder with an opening away game against Atalanta for the CL. These three away games in a row after the first International break is as hard as it gets.
The good news is that we have a strong and highly motivated squad and these recent hard games will have the boys in the right frame of mind and form to deal with the Blue Oilers of Manchester. Martin Odegaard, our captain and talisman, will be missed in the coming weeks (hopefully not months), but against City less so. Whether we like it or not, we will have to sit deep and play on the counter, and this would also have been the case with the Norwegian Mozart in the team today.
So Calafiori will play and I reckon we will see a far stronger left side than we have had recently. The main reason for this the Italian is likely to push and play next to Partey AND that Rice is back. Declan will now be able to push up and support our attack on the left side much more than previously has been the case, and I am very excited about it. The one who will benefit most of this all is young Martinelli, as he will now get much more support, similar to what he had during Granit Xhaka’s last season (and boy was he more effective back then).
Havertz and Trossard will support midfield constantly whilst also both able to produce a through-ball when possible. I think this formation will suit us very well against the Blue Mancs today, and let’s see how it will all unfold.
A day after the sweetest 1-0 to the Arsenal victories and I am still buzzing. Arsenal were dealt with a very cruel start to the season, with three away games in the first five fixtures against opponents that can all hurt us. Villa, Spuds and Citeh away are never easy but to play them straightaway and in quick succession carries a real risk of making a poor start from which we could possibly never recover during the remainder of the season. But we have a manager who knows that a successful campaign is only possible by having a mean defence, and our lads are as mean as it gets. Two away games have reaped six points, and next up are the blue Oilers of Manchester. So far so very, very good.
White, Saliba, Gabriel and Timber, what a Spuds-crushing wall you all presented. Theo Walcott was right in his observation that this Arsenal reminded him of the early Mourinho-days. It is not the first time that Mikel has set up the team not to lose and count on us taking one or two of our chances; when needs must Arsenal can suck the life out of any opponent. And that is exactly what Arsenal did yesterday: no space, no time in all the areas where we could have be hurt: masters in the air, on the wings and through the middle.
In a way it felt like we were playing the entire game with 10 rather than 11 players. We sat deep and absorbed pressure and we let the Spuds bounce around the pitch as long as they did not come within 25 yards of our goal. The Gunners played with a Joan of Arc-like singularity of purpose and belief which were a joy to watch. The Spuds supporters thought we were there for the taking without Odegaard and Rice (Merino and Calafiori), but Arteta – sometimes accused of not having a Plan-B – made sure they all went home with their chins on their chests.
It is clear that we depend a lot on both Rice and Odegaard for playing the football that Arteta really wants us to play. In a way, we lacked springs between defence and attack, and Arteta knew that he had no solution for this. Calafiori and Merino could have been the like for like substitutes but they were both not available, and so Mikel had to come up with something else. I thought Jorginho was immense. Such an intelligent player who has a humble but effective, Marcus Aurelius like, way of getting the best out of the people around him with his serving leadership style. Partey was also fantastic. He will always give the ball away unnecessarily, but his presence and footballing qualities add so much to the team.
All our attackers worked tirelessly to support midfield and defence, and yet they also offered real danger if and when we were able to spring an attack. Martinelli was a great support for Timber and Saka doubled up wonderfully with White. I think we may have shown the Spuds too much respect with the way we set ourselves up, if I am totally honest, but it paid off and left us with the sweetest of 1-0 to the Arsenal victories.
Yesterday’s game is a fine example of how football remains unpredictable and nothing can be taken for granted. Arsenal were not particularly cruising when Declan got his second yellow card, but it was 1-0 to the Arsenal and we were mostly in control of the game. Then the referee decided that Rice deserved a second yellow card and the whole complexion of our battle with the Seagulls changed in an instance. Nobody can argue that Kavanagh, the ugly and venomous toad, was not in his right to issue a second card, but a decent referee would have understood that the severity of issuing one was not merited at that moment. This was certainly what Rice was counting on, but he should also have known better. When you are on a yellow card make sure you stay disciplined for the remainder of the game; Declan did not do that.
It is obvious from the first three games that Arsenal are not firing from all cylinders as yet. The team has been riding their luck at times and relied heavily on both the form of Raya and the attacking sharpness of both Saka and Kai. Our midfield players Rice and Odegaard are out of form and they are both trying desperately to regain it. Partey has been a big plus, even though he will never lose his ability to play a bad, unforced pass or two in each and every game. Because of the stiffness and lack of confidence of our English and Norwegian midfielders the whole team was too static and predictable, but I am confident this will improve significantly from this month onwards.
Key is that we got 7 out 9 points from our first fixtures and have conceded only one goal. And that one goal only came very soon after Rice was sent off. It was the gap that he left behind that led to the goal; both central defenders hesitated at the crucial moment and after that the damage was done, despite a fine initial safe by Raya. In hindsight, Arteta should have acted quicker with bringing one an extra defender, but hey ho life does not always work like that.
It was obvious that the departure of Rice did not only mean we were a man down, but a key one at that for whom we did not have a like-for-like replacement. I guess if Big Gap had not landed on Merino we would have seen him play his first minutes in the mighty red and white, but it was not to be. Zinchenko would have been a good option, but combining Calarfiori with Timber was also sound. It just came a bit too late and the damage was done before we knew it.
I am very proud of how the team managed the game from the equaliser onwards. Credit to the Seagulls who had guts and quality to push us into our own half and try and force a winner. They almost did but Arsenal arguably had the better chances from a couple of counter attacks. In the end, I think we should be happy with the point and move on to the next game. Life throws these sort of situations at us and every team will experience them during the season. It’s the way the boys responded to the adversity that matters and, on yesterday’s evidence, we are going to be okay.
Finally, a three week PL break for Declan may do him good (and I think he should also get a break from international games). To me, he did not look ready to start the new season, despite no lack of trying his utmost. He will return in the game against Citeh and that may be just what we need then.
Sweet are the uses of adversity, Which, like the toad, ugly and venomous, Wears yet a precious jewel in his head; And this our life, exempt from public haunt, Finds tongues in trees, books in the running brooks, Sermons in stones, and good in every thing.
To follow the long tradition of Bergkampesque and to honor the loving memory of frequent author, fellow Gooner, but most of all our dear friend GN5 (Cyril) please welcome this season’s competition in his name.
Without usurping his trademark weekly game-scoring prediction contest, but keeping the focus on the PL with a slight bias towards Arsenal the competition is a simplified forecast of the final table.
In fact, to participate you only need to comment 5 groups of clubs (4 teams each) and a single 3-digit number (see later).
Nevertheless (you knew this word was coming) don’t rush and give some time to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the Premier League.
Is Manchester City stronger than in the previous season? Can Arteta increase the total points with a further 2-3?
Is the marriage of Bohly’s money and spending spree with a coach from Guardiola’s school will be enough to qualify Chelsea to the CL?
Could Emery further improve on his squad or did he fall victim to the summer transfer megalomania?
Will Ten Hag be capable of integrating his recently signed stars into a competitive team soon enough to fight for silverware?
Is Dominic Solanke a Champions League level striker (whom we should regret not signing)?
Has any team completed a more effective transfer window than West Ham United?
Do you think the passivity of Liverpool – and Slot – is a sign of impotence or a sign of pure genius?
Shall we start calling Fulham little Arsenal, and can our former gunners (Leno, Iwobi, ESR) lead them to greatness?
Can Crystal Palace maintain their quality without their star player(s) and substantial reinforcements? (At the time of the post Nketiah was not yet transferred.)
Will any of the promoted teams be able to stay in the PL or will they share the fate of the previous year’s commuters?
APPLICATION
Don’t worry, you don’t have to answer these questions – however feel free to participate in the discussion in the comments.
You simply (?) need to divide the 20 PL teams into the 5 categories below and list them regardless of their further order within their groups.
1. League of Champions – England’s and Europe’s finest (1-4)
2. The challengers – competing for a spot in Europe (5-8)
3. Mid-table mediocrity – still stronger than most from the Top 10 leagues (9-12)
4. Climbing up or falling down –teams that also played (13-16)
5. Tested and found wanting – 3 frustrated and 1 relieved (17-20)
+1: the sum of Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.
SCORING
You get
+4 points after each team’s final standing in the proper designated category
+1 point/team if they end up in a neighboring category (regardless of direction)
-2 points if your predicted and the actual final categories are 2 groups apart
-5 points per team if a club happens to deceive you by 3 whole categories
If you manage to err by 4 categories (you predict a team making CL while it gets delegated; or vice versa) you get disqualified, TA will ban you from the blog, and we inform your internet service provider to make the necessary steps.*
In the probable case of a tie the deciding factor will be the accuracy of your prediction about – the sum of – Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.
* The same penalty applies if you predict the sum of table points and goal difference using only 2 digits.
In the highly unlikely case of a second level tie the person who submitted their predictions sooner will be awarded.
MONITORING
I will do my very best to share the standings 5 times during the PL campaign: after the 6th, 12th, 19th, 25th and 31st rounds before announcing the winners at the end of the season.
Obviously, the mid-league standings have no significance whatsoever, they will be only snapshots of the entire process. It could be interesting though.
(For the sake of simplification I will use a linear model to proportionally adjust Arsenal’s final table points and goal difference.)
For a single game at hand I will assume a 0:0 draw. If more games are missing, I will apply a more sophisticated but rather uninteresting model to forecast the unavailable results thus balancing the games played by each team.
In case you would like to audit the fairness of the competition I will store the prediction and evaluate the scores in an excel table – feel free to ask for a copy at the end.
REWARDS
Following Stuart’s generous offer the first prize will be a signed copy of Liam Brady’s autobiography: Born to be a footballer
The second prize will be a 3D puzzle on Arsenal’s Emirates stadium.
As a third prize you will be invited to the brainstorming about next season’s competition.
Logistics will be communicated via e-mail or private messages of a selected social media.
DEADLINE
It would have been reasonable to set the submission deadline before the PL starts to the 15th of August.
However, the 2 weeks between the start of the campaign and the end of the summer transfer window could seriously impact the squads and thus their competitiveness.
And it is indeed important. Would Toney leave England or only Brentford? Will Crystal Palace lose Guéhi? If yes, would it reinforce Newcastle’s defense?
Could Chelsea or Arsenal be the final destination for Osimhen? Will Fulham snatch McTominay? Is Chelsea going to give away their surplus to requirement players cheaply to their competitors or loan them out?
Therefore, after careful consideration, the deadline for submission is the start of the 3rd round, specifically the kick-off of the Arsenal vs. Brighton game on the last day of August.
(The summer transfer window will have been closed for half a day by then, so you will have had plenty of time to incorporate the last minute transfers to your prediction.)
The channel to submit your predictions is a comment: either under this thread or under a subsequent post that follows – before the deadline (13:30 GMT).
PARTICIPATION
Everybody is most welcome to take part in GN5 memorial PL competition**.
For the core community and recurring guest authors it’s kind of a moral obligation, but there are no restrictions applied.
Anyone can submit, regardless of age, ethnicity, sexual orientation, hell even football preference.
So you can be a first time visitor – even supporting a different team – feel free to share your predictions, as long as you behave as civilized adults.
(Do not worry, being a Chelsea, Tottenham or United fan will be considered grey zone from the civilization point of view.)
Past Arsenal employees and affiliates are welcome to join. The more the merrier.
** However, current first team players and coaching staff members are excluded due to conflict of interest.
Nevertheless, I’m willing to turn a blind eye as long as you offer a signed jersey for next year’s competition.
For the sake of excitement – and to increase the number of participants – I will submit 2 dummy predictions. One from ChatGPT (or the first AI that is willing to answer my PL forecast inquiry) and one solely based on TransferMarkt’s order of squad value by the time the transfer window closes.
In the (sad) case of an artificial entry getting into the top 3 the prize will be awarded to the next humanoid participant.
Don’t hesitate to share your questions in the comments. But be kind.
And don’t forget to submit your 5 sets of teams by Saturday!
The annual summer transfer window bolero is nearing its crescendo, and it is all looking good for Arsenal. We kept all our key players and strengthened defence and midfield significantly. Arsenal allowed Emile to leave and a few others have left on loan. There is every chance that a couple of others will be allowed to leave before the window shuts, and it looks like we may get another player in attack, especially if indeed Eddie is allowed to leave.
Talking about attack, I think the BIG question is whether to buy and then play a beast of a CF OR to stick with the philosophy of spreading the responsibility of scoring our goals throughout the team. Arsenal score a lot of goals: 84 in 22-23 and 85 in 23-24, about 2.3 goals per game. Citeh have scored even more but we are meaner in defence, and this is likely to continue this season.
Last season, we had 7 players who scored more than 5 goals, and White (4), Gab (3) and Saliba (2) scored 9 goals between them. During the 22-23 season only five managed to score more than 5 goals and our defenders hardly contributed. I like the philosophy of spreading the goals between all the players as it makes us less predictable and protects us against the main striker’s inevitable off-day significantly. But every time we lose a game we will hear again and again that Arsenal are lacking a top CF blah blah blah. So if only for that reason, I welcome the arrival of one.
In the meantime, I am hopeful that we will have a much stronger attack on the left side this season. Martinelli and Rice managed just 13 goals between them, and especially the young Brazilian saw his tally reduced significantly: from 15 to 6 over last two seasons. Rice has as many goals this season as Xhaka managed to score in the one before that (7).
I think the main reasons for this is that Xhaka was very effective playing next to Odegaard, and Rice is playing a deeper role than Granit. What I am really excited about is that Mikel and Edu have now invested heavily in strengthening the left side, and the arrival of Merino and better quality left backs is likely to mean that Rice will be pushed up and play the ‘Xhaka-role’ going forward. As a result, I expect both Martinelli and Odegaard to benefit a lot. Both managed 30 goals between them when Xhaka was still a Gunner, whereas last season they managed just 14 goals between them. Both Martin and Gabriel worked their socks off but appeared often isolated and having to do too much non-attacking work, last season. Often when it came to finishing a chance they looked tired and fluffed their efforts.
What saved us was super-sub/irregular starter, Trossard, who scored a quite impressive 12 goals in the PL last season. Furthermore, in the middle we had a decent improvement: in 22-23 Jesus and Eddie scored 15 goals; and in 23-24 Jesus, Havertz and Eddie managed 22 goals between them.
Bukayo and Odegaard, who operate mainly on the right, managed 24 goals between them last season, down from 29 in 22-23, so there is work to be done here as well, although Saka managed to improve his tally by 2, from 14 to 16.
In conclusion, it all does not seem as simple as just buying a beast of a CF and we will score even more goals than our 2.3 per game in the previous seasons. Both Kai and Jesus work hard and offer a lot more than the typical CF does. A top CF will score more than them, no doubt, but we may create less chances as a result of introducing such a player. It all remains to be seen whether a top CF would make us score more goals over a whole season.
Instead, I am much more hopeful of Mikel now getting the balance right on the left:
Calafiori and Timber improve our quality in left back
Merino can play deep (and higher up) in midfield
Rice can move up and partner Odegaard
I have a beautiful feeling that this rather than a beast of CF will finally turn us into champions again.
Bergkampesque 