How important is it to have absolute top players in most positions?
If you started to read this post only because you are intrigued by this question, I can save you some time. I donβt know. Moreover, Iβm not sure that this post will bring us closer to the answer. However, the following season hopefully will.
I will try to analyze the current squad by positions, to see how far our strongest XI is behind the absolute elite. And Iβm not talking about the top teams here, but the very best players in each position. For the sake of simplification, I will call the 1-3 players elite, the 4-10 world class, and the 11-25 as top players.
A final disclaimer: this is not a fact-sharing post. Youβll read merely my opinion on our first choice players in comparison with their peers, but thatβs inevitably subjective. Iβll do my best to refrain from being partial or prejudicial, and even if Iβm biased, it is probably in favor of the player. Nevertheless itβs perfectly right if you have a different evaluation, and donβt hesitate to challenge my assessments. (Update after reading the post: I was probably more often hard on players than generous. Be kind in the comments.)
Before we jump into the task, think with me a bit. When did Arsenal have someone from the absolute top 3 players in any position in their ranks? Did we ever? Obviously Thierry Henry was one, and in this blog I suspect we can grant this award to our non-flying Dutchman as well. But was Pires or Ljungberg a top 3 winger? I donβt think so. There were players like Ronaldinho, Figo or the young CR7 there. Maybe Vieira was top 3 at his peak, but Fabregas had strong competition from Scholes, Schweinsteiger, Gerrard, Xavi, Lampard and others. Furthermore, I donβt think RvP was top 3 either (Rooney, Drogba, MΓΌller, Etoβo), nor was Aubameyang (Benzema, Lewandowski, Kane, Morata, Firmino, old CR7). I believe the first and only time Arsenal had a top 3 player in the team since Henry was Alexis Sanchez (and it didnβt turn out too well, either).
So Iβm not saying it is a must to have a few elite players in the team in order to win silverware (see Leicester) or Champions League (see Marseilles, Porto, Inter). Itβs not a disadvantage though, but even top teams donβt (canβt) have top3 players in all positions. Maybe a couple, and the rest of the starting XI can consist of βonlyβ world class players and some others from the top.
Yes, I picked this topic up, because Iβm convinced that next season we will have an elite player in our squad. (Again, it is not suitable to compare teammates from different positions, but a certain player with the best athletes from his own position.) To save you the suspense: he is going to be Declan Rice.
But fortunately β spoiler alert β we are so well equipped with world class players all over the squad that I believe we have plenty of chances to collect 90 points in the PL and reach the semi-final in the CL and domestic cups. At the very least.
Letβs start from striker towards goalkeeper.Β Gabriel Jesus is one of the tricky customers. Iβm not entirely sure whether he is a world class (4-10) forward, or only top (11-25), he qualifies for both assertions.Β Next season will help us decide. Jesus is not elite (Haaland, MbappΓ©, Osimhen, Kane), but he doesnβt have to be. If he can play like he did at the beginning of the recent season, we are properly covered with the first choice striker, especially as Haaland and MbappΓ© are making around 1M/week. I donβt know nor care if they deserve it, this is not the direction we should move in my opinion.
Right wing. And the first controversial position. I will not be popular, but despite many of you may think that Bukayo Saka is the best RW in the world, I think he is not elite just yet. However, I expect him to become one in the next couple of years. Salah, Rodrygo, Messi, Mahrez are still ahead of him. Not more valuable, just better as of now. But 3 of them are above 30, so Saka will compete with Gnabry, Raphina, Diaby, Dembele and Rodrygo in the future to see who joins the elite.
At the left wing, it is easier. We all know thatΒ MartinelliΒ is not yet elite (Vinicius Jr, Phoden, Rashford, Kvaratskhelia), but there is no doubt that he is already world class. However this group is balanced and a truly strong one with Leao, Grealish, Neymar, Diaz, Coman, Gakpo, Sterling, Son, Mudryk and Jota fighting for the 7 places in the category. (Itβs possible that Trossard has his stake in the 11-25 positions, but the jury is still out.)
Attacking midfield. I hope I donβt get lynched, but at the moment I see Odegaard similar to Saka. He is a criminally good player still on the rise, but unfortunately not yet at the level of de Bruyne, Fernandes or Musiala, but already at the level of Maddison, Wirtz and Silva. You may accuse me of high expectations, but expect Martin to level up, and I plan to buy my second Arsenal jersey with his name on the back to provide company to my only Bergkamp shirt. Kai Havertz detto: he is also world class, no doubt about that. Weβll see how he can reinvent himself as an AM and/or B2B midfielder.
I already spoiled the defensive midfield: Declan Rice is the best player there along with Rodri. TchouamΓ©ni, Fernandez, Kimmich and Caicedo are mighty fine players too, but simply below Declan. Thomas Partey was a top DM, but never close to the elite, and probably his world class days are also over.
We donβt really have central midfielders since Xhakaβs departure β who was probably never a world class player, but with his leadership, presence and off-pitch support he was one of the most valuable and most underappreciated individuals at the club β but we probably donβt need one. Against the few strong opponent, we can play in 4-2-3-1 with 2 DMs (I donβt find either Partey or Jorginho a liability paired with Rice) plus a single AM, and against regular or lesser teams we can play 4-1-4-1 with the insane attacking 4 of Martinelli-Havertz-Odegard-Saka right behind the striker. Would you be interested, I think the elite CMs all play in Spain: Pedri, Bellingam, de Jong and Valverde (Gavi).
The good news is that we have 2 world class center backs. According to TransferMarktΒ GabrielΒ MagalhΓ£esΒ is only top (#14), but I think he is underestimated. I would love to say thatΒ SalibaΒ is expected to become elite, but unfortunately, all the top defenders are 22-26 years old, so it will be a tough task to overtake Dias, Gvardiol, de Ligt or Militao. I have faith in William nevertheless. We donβt know yet whereΒ TimberΒ will play, but based on his market price he is a top CB and a world class RB.
Regarding both Ben White and Oleksander Zinchenko I have the unpopular opinion that while at the first half of the season they seemed to be world class defenders, by the end of the season they were βonly top playersβ to me. Both of them are strong passers and expert at carrying the ball, so obviously suitable for Artetaβs style of football, but neither of them are good enough when it comes to crossing, and their defensive contributions β in terms of tackles and interceptions β are average at best. Neither of them are liabilities per se, but almost every major club have full backs of similar quality (James, Hakimi, TAA, Trippier, Cancelo, Porro, Frimpong, Pavard, Grimaldo, Davies, Mendes, Balde, Hernandez, Shaw, Robertson, Chilwell, Estupinan, Cucurella). Before being labelled as too harsh, I believe we are way ahead of City in full backs (their only left back, Gomez, isnβt even a top 25 guy, and on the right flank β with the expected departure of Cancelo and Walker β they wonβt have quality players either, while we have a world class and 3 top players already). They will either invest heavily in these positions or will play with their non-starting CBs like AkΓ© and Stones at the flanks.
Personally I would prefer to use Timber as starting RB and White as the defensive utility sub. And at left back we either have to turn up the competition among Zinchenko, Tomiyasu and Tierney (whom I hope will stay, but after several glimpses of brilliance he didnβt turn out to become the best LB in the PL, falsifying my predictions), or buy reinforcements there, as this is the only (?) position where I claim we donβt have even world class players at the moment. Thank god we didnβt sign Castagne, though.
Iβm afraid I have to sign off on a controversial note. Many of you are surely familiar with CIES Football Observatoryβs report onΒ RamsdaleΒ being the most valuable goalkeeper on the planet. Well, even though this was not obviously a sponsored content from Aaronβs agent, I have to respectfully disagree. There are not many shot-stoppers clearly better than Arsenalβs #1, but there are plenty who are not obviously worse either. I have nothing against Ramsdale, he is enthusiastic, he likes to play out from the back and he is capable of brilliant moments, but he does have the tendency to produce high profile errors signature to the clubβs goalkeepers in the last decade. Is Aaron among the 10 best GKs of the world? Hell, based on last season Iβm not sure if he is amongst the PLβs top 10. So, for me he is βonlyβ a top player, with plenty of potential to realize β starting with next season.
To summarize I think with the imminent arrival of Declan Rice we will have a enormously capable starting lineup (at 4-1-4-1) with a single elite marquee, 4-5 almost elite world class players, the same amount of ‘regular’ world class players without the pressuring expectation to become the very elite, and a handful of dependable, top guys, who can break into the world class category any time. Plus almost 10 success-hungry youngsters (academy unfortunately excluded) breathing down their necks, even though we will inevitably say goodby to at least a few of them. Looking at the β¬754M starting XI – that by itself is worth more than all other clubs bar 8 (TransferMarkt) – I am looking forward to the upcoming season with confidence.
I planned to share my further conclusions, but this post is really long and tiresome already. Letβs discuss your view on our players in the comments, and we can draw conclusions in a follow-up post next week.