Classy Theo brings back memories whilst Jesus is all over the place. A crazy game, another cup final for Arsenal, two points dropped… but we overcame adversity and our souls purred at the end.
Eight Observations of an almost perfect comeback:
A few key players missing and a couple struggling with form, and all of a sudden we looked vulnerable, not ourselves. It’s what Liverpool struggled with all season and MU experience regularly, and Arsenal have been lucky to have not had much if it until now. Against Southampton we looked and were vulnerable, but the good thing is that the boys overcame their malaise and ended up on a high, even though it meant a loss of still two points. They found themselves again and that is key for the next game.
Bloggers on Bergkampesque.com know how much I rate Granit. Take him out of the team and its like a jacket without lining, still there but it does not look good anymore. XhakA gives shape not only to the midfield but the entire left side. He makes others play better. He really is our general, Mikel’s extension on the pitch.
Ødegaard struggled to get in the game and have his usual influence but boy did he finish on a high. This boy cares so much about our club, you just have to love him. His goal was one that only leaders can produce in adversity. It kept us in the fight for the title and returned the much needed belief in the supporters.
Partey also became better and better as the game moved on, and his midfield battles were a joy to watch. At times it looked like Paddy Vieira was back on the pitch.
The first two Saints goals would probably not have happened with Granit on the pitch. Yes mistakes were made but they were more of a positional nature. The problem is that nobody can offer the full range of skills of Xhaka, and young Vieira is certainly not a like for like replacement. It’s a hard balance between covering the defence, offering midfield transition play and be an effective attacking threat. On top of that Xhaka gives positional and tactical discipline to the team. We missed this throughout the game and could only really overcome it by keeping the Saints pressed into their own half as much as possible. Hopefully Granit is back on Wednesday.
Bukayo started a bit subdued but, like the Ode, he finished on a high. A fine assist and goal to add to his season tally, and he certainly stayed calm in the eye of the storm. Martinelli also delivered with a fine taken goal. Gab Jesus lacked the calm and composure on Friday. I think that’s the price to pay for the unpredictability he is supposed to bring to our attacking play. Chaos rules and sometimes the energy and eagerness that comes with Jesus’s game will make him seem wasteful. But Arsenal didn’t lose two points because of this, poor defending did.
Zinchenko is an interesting player. He offers attitude and leadership which is great. Yet I am not sure where he should play. I had thought he would cover for Xhaka and Tierney would be in LFB, but Mikel kept him in his usual position. I am also not sure he has earned the respect of the other players and he doesn’t seem to have natural partnerships in the team either. At times he is world class but I think it’s a work in progress.
Arteta made some excellent changes in the second half and we finished on a high. Can he really afford to keep The Tross out of the starting eleven, though?! Leandro gave us more structure AND better attacking approach play from the moment he came on. It really helped the Ode to get more space for his best game. I would be tempted to go 4-1 – 2-3 v Blue Oil if Granit is not available, with Partey deep and Ode and Leandro behind Mart-Jesus-Saka. Take the game to them rather than sit back.
A must-win London derby to keep our title hopes alive (16/04/23) – West Ham game preview
At the time of this preview West Ham is sitting 3 points and 3 places above the relegation trio, with a superior goal difference and game in hand – which could give them the comfort not to make this a live-or-die game and focus on their unexpectedly successful Conference League campaign (and their future fixtures against Bournemouth, Leeds and Leicester). However in a few hours there will be no game in hand any more, and their attractive goal difference could also become past tense.
Nevertheless, I expect a comfortable Arsenal victory of 0:2, without memorable display from either teams. West Ham will not make this game a final, and neither will we; but the difference in the average performance and the individual abilities will decide the game in Arsenal’s favor.
The only player I expect a sizeable resistance is Rice. He is not just the only word-class player in West Ham’s squad, but Declan might be also playing against his possible future teammates, and the last thing he wants is to put up a display discouraging Arteta or the supporters from the current genuine interest.
Lucas Paquetá, Jarrod Bowen and Tomás Soucek are the other decent players, but I’m not sure how deeply they will be motivated. And even so, a capable midfield will not guarantee scoring goals or preventing goals on the other end, hence my confidence in the victory. I have an unfortunate tendency to underappreciate classical British strikers, but Danny Ings does not give me the fidgets, Antonio is already 33 and Scamacca is still injured, so my money is on a clean sheet – but I’ve made the same mistake about Crystal Palace and Leeds, so nothing is guaranteed.
West Ham is one of the few teams where no player is in the positive in both xG and xA (hasn’t scored and assisted more than the quality of the chances would have suggested), and the few ‘greens’ are really low. Their highest scoring player, Jarrod Bowen is wasting chances like Giroud on steroids. And their manager, David Moyes is albeit experienced, he is not the master of this trade; Jason Statham wouldn’t call him Mustard.
From our team I expect the ‘usual’ best available line-up, but a reserved overall display and performance. That doesn’t mean that Odegaard, Saka or Martinelli will likely play bad, only compared to their best selves. The 2 players whom I expect the extra miles are Gabriel Jesus – who really wants to demonstrate that he is back at his best, and the 11 games (before the World Cup) without scoring is well in the past – and Tierney, who needs to show that he is at least on par with Zinchenko, or maybe even better, albeit being a different type of left back.
West Ham conceded as many goals from outside the penalty area (6) as they from their 6-yard box, so I would encourage our players to shoot from distance. The task is on Xhaka and Partey – both expected to start – but Odegaard could surprise Fabianski, too.
Current form supports both teams. Arsenal has the best away record in the PL, but West Ham lost a single home game in 2023 (against Newcastle). History also shows Arsenal dominance: 23W, 5D, 2L in 30 games and 8W, 1D, 1L from the last 10 encounters. There draw was a memorable 3:3 at the London Stadium where West Ham players scored 5 goals, but the highlight of this fixture is our 1:5 victory, where Alexis Sanchez scored one of the finest hattricks in modern football, and maybe the second best after Bergkamp’s heroics against Leicester City. While statistics imply many goals, as the last 3 meetings in the London Stadium saw the net bulged 13 times, I’m less convinced of this trend being continued.
Today’s referee is David Coote. He specializes on Arsenal away games. J This is mixed news as despite we won our visit to Fulham and Brentford 0:3 each (the score-lines were set by the 49th minutes both games) we were surprisingly defeated at Goodison Park by Everton. Coote is not a card machine, but awards a penalty or a marching order if absolutely necessary.
There are plenty of signs to be optimistic about the game, but my enthusiasm is limited to the outcome, but less so about the expected display of performance. But 3 points are 3 points, and the goal difference ship has been sailed, so let’s conclude an injury-free victory today.
Back in the long long distant past, well in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s Arsenal had two young strikers developing from the academy, one was a certain Kevin Campbell, a big, physical and quite rapid centre-forward who went on to play a pivitol role in the ‘almost’ Invincibles of 1990/91. Campbell looked destined to succeed Alan Smith and to be Arsenal’s powerful spearhead throughout the decade.
Just behind Super Kev was a young, lithe, shy looking young man from Nottingham, Andy Cole, and he was ripping up the South-East Counties league and the Football Combination. Cole was a different type of striker, smaller than Campbell but quicker and more like the guy George Graham eventually signed in 1991 and who went on to become the clubs record goalscorer.
The arrival of Ian Wright changed the direction of both Campbell and Cole as well as Arsenal and Campbell became more of a support striker, often out wide whilst Cole went on loan to both Fulham (13 apps 3 gls) and then Bristol City (12 apps 8gls). There was a clear improvement in Andy Cole’s performances but the immovable object of Ian Wright stood in his way. George Graham had Wright, Smith, Paul Merson, Campbell and Anders Limpar and there was no where for Cole to go and so Graham sold him, to Bristol City for £500,000, Ian Wright had cost £2.5m so it was a decent fee.
Andy Cole went onto play for Newcastle United where he scored 55 goals in only 70 appearances and then Man United where he would win the European Cup/Champions League and lot of other honours. Arsenal won after he left the League Cup, the FACup and the European Cup Winners Cup of which Kevin Campbell and Ian Wright played a significant part.
Campbell was a workhorse and a decent servant for Arsenal but he never hit the heights we’d expected of him back in 1990 and he was eventually sold in 1995 to Nottingham Forest for the same fee Arsenal had paid for Ian Wright, £2.5m. Campbell had a decent career post-Arsenal finishing with 148 goals in 499 appearances.
Andy Cole also drifted around the lesser clubs on leaving Old Trafford in 2001 and finished with 229 goals from 509 appearances.
Some fans and other commenters criticised Graham for not giving Cole a chance but I’m not sure what they expected Graham to do, not sign Ian Wright perhaps?
The parallels with today are very similar, Arteta has Jesus, Trossard, Martinelli, Saka and Nketiah filling the attack roles and he has the raw potential of Flo Balogun, it’s like 1992 all over again, stick or twist?
The agent of Saka and Nketiah is also the agent of Balogun, Arsenal usually come to an amicable arrangement with this agency but it’s clear to me that the agent knows that there’s unlikely to be the opportunities for Flo at Arsenal as it stands and he’s also looking out for Eddie as well. Flo is blasting it in Ligue Un and whilst it is Ligue Un and a certain Nicholas Pepe was blasting it in Ligue Un a few years ago it’s still a top league (or ligue) despite a certain snobbery that is prevalent in some football circles these days, so credit where credit is due.
Flo probably needs to leave so he can spread his wings, he isn’t replacing Martinelli, Saka or Jesus anytime soon and will probably be behind Trossard and alongside Eddie and his agent will know this.
Of course if he smashes it during the pre-season this summer then that might cause Arteta to hesitate and think again, but would Flo be prepared to share the spotlight with Jesus and would Jesus be happy with that or would Trossard be happy as a permanent sub, stick or twist?
I’d like to see Arteta giving Flo the summer and see where he stands, no doubt there are constant scouting reports on Balogun going into Arteta’s office on a weekly basis probably some videos as well so he’s going to know what Flo has to offer in the here and now. Arsenal will have until August 31st to decide and they could even push it until January 31st but it’ll depend on whose leaving, whose arriving and the spaces available in the 25 man squad and how Flo feels.
A point won or two lost? That seems to be the narrative of the press and many a fan. Well, what about the bigger picture?! Arteta and his players are sometimes victims of their own success. It’s outrageous how far this young team has come. 73 points with still eight to play, 23 wins out of 30 games, just three losses.
Man City should and probably will win the league. The fact that we are still within a shout of the title and competing with Citeh is a pure wonder. Arteta is building something special and he is so bloody good at it that this team is well ahead of its growth trajectory.
We came to Anfield with this young, exciting team. We played them off the pitch and silenced the crowd so much you could hear individuals swearing as only Scousers can. When was Anfield ever that quiet?!
We went two nil up and just were awesome. A little lack of concentration in defence and a bit of Scousers’ luck brought them back in the game. This can happen in football. Nothing to do with Granit’s yellow card but it will not stop old hate bubbling up… A group of scary looking youths walk past and half a minute later I break my foot through slipping. That’s of course the youths’ fault; I hate them, I always did… A lot of bad things happen in the world because of these sorts of mental wrongdoings.
We gave away a winning position and I understand that many are disappointed in that. I am too and so is the manager and so are the players. But the much. MUCH bigger picture is that we stood the Anfield test, we overcame Klopp’s Gnashers and properly led that team with (mostly in the beginning) scintillating football for 88 minutes. Keep your scorn from individual players or the manager; don’t hurt but support. Become a co-builder rather than a wracker, a supporter rather than a fan.
it’s not about two points lost or one point won; it’s about the team’s and manager’s progress to overcome the Anfield cauldron and not lose there, to flourish and not wilt, to hang in there and play at the top of our youthful and continuously growing abilities. That’s my Arsenal and I love it.
A major bump on the way (09/04/23) – Liverpool game preview
I’ll do my best to talk as much as I can about Liverpool, but you will not get off without me venting my insecurities. Before that, let’s start with some maths.
As you know, we have a 5 points lead 9 rounds to go. It looks a sizeable gap – and it is a lot better than any smaller leads – but it isn’t all that much. For the sake of harsh simplification I will assume that we will beat West Ham, Southampton, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton, and lose against Manchester City. That leaves us with 3 major challenges: away games against Liverpool and Newcastle, plus our home game hosting Chelsea. With the conditions above, if we win all 3 of them we will snatch the title. If we lose one it’s no longer guaranteed, but there is still a decent chance as it is also highly unlikely that Manchester City will win all their remaining games. However, if we fail to win 2 of them, then we are in a really difficult situation.
And the toughest of those will be our visit to Anfield later today. Historically we are not too efficient there – the last time we won at the cauldron Arteta was still playing (2012) – and despite their current struggles Liverpool has the third best home record (tied with Manchester United) in the Premier League. Every team has lost a home fixture already, but City drew one, we shared the spoils twice, while ‘Pool and United 3 time. Meaning that they are almost as good at home as we are. Hence my prediction: Liverpool 2:1 Arsenal.
I’m not being fatalistic, at least I hope not. But I’m not paid for wishful thinking but to be realistic (well, I’m not paid at all, but that’s not the point. J). And the reality is that if they play average and we play average then we will lose – like we kind of did against Sporting. If we play below average and they play above their expected level, we can get massacred, like Man United was. So we have to bring our A-game, and still have to hope Liverpool won’t do the same.
And that is the problem: regardless our unprecedented position and winning streak we are not playing consistently on an elite level. In my opinion, we played at the invincible level recently against Fulham (0:3) and Everton (4:0), when defense, midfield and attack all clicked, and even our weakest links – on the day – played slightly above average. Before that it was the 5:0 trashing of Nottingham in October. And neither of them was a Liverpool level opponent. Don’t take me wrong, playing world class footie in day out is probably not even possible, and in fact our major improvement this season is the ability to win ugly, and unleashing some individual brilliance when the majority of the team was struggling.
But we have to acknowledge that our current success – besides the obvious and huge improvement to our performances – should be partly attributed to struggles of our league rivals, form issues of the actual opponents, plus some luck, too. And we could use some of those today. I hope Arteta will prove me wrong, and demonstrate that he used the interlull, as well as resting Saka, Partey and Jesus to time our peak form; but despite my tremendous faith in this young team I’m not sure that after collecting 0 point from 2-2 games against Liverpool in the last couple of seasons, we are already in the position to claim 6.
Sorry, I got carried away and went unnecessarily deep into a season analysis. Let’s focus on today’s game and opponent. Liverpool used to be known for their deadly attack, an almost RealMadrid-esque calm and technical – yet not particularly clinical – midfield trio and the best defenders money can buy. This year only the deadly attack is there, even though Diaz is injured, Nunez had a rough start, and Salah couldn’t maintain his form from past seasons; but in his defense that was a Lewandowski-Benzema type world class form, so a level below that could still be crazy high. He is Liverpool’s best (fit) player at the moment – with 10 goal contributions (G:8, A:2) in his last 10 games – and he was properly rested against Chelsea. He will be the main threat today, and his dual with Zinchenko could be a major factor deciding the outcome. Firmino started the season really well and made Nunez run after his money, but after his calf injury in December-January he couldn’t find his scoring shoes. I do not expect him to start or cause problems today. Unlike Nunez and Gakpo who aren’t particularly clinical this season either, but they are good enough to capitalize on the smallest defensive mistake if we give them the chance.
The good news is that while they have an attacking trio of 200M according to TransferMarkt we can top them by 55M assuming MJS will start (although Trossard made quite a claim with his Anfield hattrick back in October in a Brighton jersey). The other match-deciding factor could be the availability of Thiago. He is not a fancy central midfielder, but even with his limited goal contributions, he has a calming effect on his teammates. The Spaniard’s flexor issue seems to be gone, he’s back in training, and although wasn’t involved in the Tuesday game against Chelsea, he is most likely available to start today. Which is bad news, because Fabinho, Milner and Henderson are well below the level of Odegaard, Partey and Xhaka, but Thiago isn’t. The last uncertainty is about Virgil van Dijk. If Klopp was honest – and you never know – he missed the Chelsea game through illness, but even so he might be fit to start today. Although he might no longer be the best central defender in the PL, he is still good enough to be concerned about him playing. My pessimistic prediction above assumed both Thiago and VvD starting; if at least either of them won’t play today I have to re-assess the odds.
Injury-wise there are no news on our boys. Elneny and Tomiyasu are out till the end of the season, and Neither Nketiah nor Saliba are fit enough to play. The former might be the cheaper loss as we have Jesus back in top form, and Trossard is capable to play up front, too. On the other hand Saliba has only one natural substitute, and even though Holding has been playing well in the past 2 games we are a bit thin in central (and right) defense, so an injury in those departments could be catastrophic.
Since Milner (37) is expected to start I think we will dominate midfield, even though Liverpool’s 4-3-3 usually provide stronger midfield focus than our 4-2-3-1. I foresee multiple goals to be scored from counterattacks, as both teams defend well and are fast on the breaks.
While the majority of fans and pundits believe that Arteta is Guardiola Jr., I rather find Mikel a younger and success-hungry version of Klopp. First of all I doubt that Pep was ever managed a team that wasn’t the best squad in its league at the time of his appointment, yet he was almost always supported by the biggest transfer budget of the league. It was Jürgen who was given the task to implement a vision and challenge the title overcoming a sizeable gap and corresponding disadvantage. He did it with flying colors, and his apparent – and seemingly inevitable – downfall is likely the result of losing the wage war, misunderstanding the value added by Mane vs. Salah, and the reluctance (or inability) to rejuvenate/reinvigorate the squad. This is also a common characteristic: Klopp is almost as bad as introducing academy players and/or purchased starlets to the first team as Mikel. (And the fun part is that even though I was a bit harsh old Jürgen, you – apart from Le Gall – will be furious for me being too harsh on Arteta.)
However, that is beyond the point, at least for today. Mikel is far from the pressure to rejuvenate the squad, and we are not yet close to the salaries breaking loose, but to be frank not too far from that either. So we should look for the silver lining which is Liverpool’s midfield. Bajcetic and Elliot did not establish themselves as wonderkids (albeit the former is merely 18), Curtis Jones didn’t get enough minutes, Keita and Ox are more often injured than fit, and Arthur Melo is almost as bad of a (loan) signing as Kallstrom, Niguez, Renato Sanches, or Falcao. So even if Thiago plays, their midfield could be vulnerable.
In the back Liverpool has 2 attacking-minded fullbacks, similar to Zinchenko, who add more to the flank attacks than the defense. Robertson is in quite a good form: with 6 assists he is the top provider in the PL among the defenders. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold is – similar to Salah and VvD – no longer the best player in his position, I don’t think he should be taken lightly. But we are in for an exciting and entertaining game of old school attacking football which may go either way.
Hopefully the game will not be decided in the goalkeeping department, as Alisson might be the only Liverpool player clearly ahead of his Arsenal counterpart, but with Saliba missing van Dijk could be the other one. Both stoppers are capable of brilliant saves as well as howlers. And another deciding factor could be the referee Paul Tierney. We have lost our last 5 games when this wanker has officiated, featuring our first defeat this season at Old Trafford, when the ref disallowed Martinelli’s ‘opening’ goal after a lengthy VAR-check for a bullsh*t fault Odegaard was supposedly committed 20 seconds before.
Trends will discontinue today. It will be either our long winning streak plus Liverpool’s struggles from the last 3 games or our Anfield history since 2012 and Tierney’s bad influence luck since 2021. From the practical point of view the deciding factors could be the duels on the flanks (Salah vs. Zinchenko, Gakpo vs. White, Saka vs. Robertson and Martinelli vs. TAA), but the Nunez vs Holding and the Jesus vs. van Dijk could also play a major part of the outcome.
We do have the firepower, but the high scoring wins came against poor or mediocre teams. Liverpool’s Champions League ambitions are probably over – they are 13 points behind Newcastle and Manchester United sharing the 3rd-4th places, with only a game in hand on them – they have a decent chance to challenge Brighton and Aston Villa for the EL and the Conference League qualification places. So there are some motivation at the Merseyside – no matter how humiliating this may be, compared to the previous decade, they will still be proud if they could salvage their season better than Chelsea despite the enormous difference in recent and past transfer spending.
I’m sure the boys will give their best, although I’m not sure if that will be enough to take all 3 points. Even so we will have solid chances to finish ahead of Manchester City, but a win today would boost the odds and the morale, and could be the strongest message we send this season – at least before our visit to the Etihad. J
Busy with a new project but here are my quick thoughts on the game:
Order and chaos, or to use Arteta’s word ‘unpredictability’, are a recipe for success. Jesus brings the chaos; he is the jester who who makes everybody wary of what’s next to come. Welcome back Mr Mayhem in the box.
What a beautiful assist by Martinelli. How did he get the ball past GK and all the defenders to allow White a tap in?! More of this, Marti.
What a beautiful assist by Trossard. Another through the eye of the needle pass. Did he know where Jesus would be or was it just luck?
Holding is doing a cracking job. The Nketiah of our defence this season. Humble and hard working with that irresistible joy in all what he does. Love him.
Aaron Ramsdale. Giant between the posts with Schmeichel presence. Made a difference once again.
Granit and Thom and Odegaard. Sex and Drugs and Rock & Roll. Best midfield in the League.
Big Ben White is growing into a monster that owns the right flank, topping it all with a well taken goal. His celebration was Shearer-like, as if he scores goals every week for fun. 🙂
Nine more battles. Nine more cup finals. OGAAT, OGAAT, OGAAT. Don’t look ahead, don’t compare, don’t plan. Every game needs our strongest team and our best prep possible. Mikel knows and Jesus-Ball rules. Bring on Klopp’s gnashers. Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!!!!!
(A) Gabi is nobody’s fool (01/04/23) – Leeds game preview
I was ‘accused’ to be overoptimistic with my take on the Palace game. And perhaps I was, but not on a general notice. I happen to be quite pessimistic on our visit on Anfield and the Etihad, but at the moment I’m not worried about hosting Leeds later today.
I’m expecting a comfortable win of 3:0. And no, it has nothing to do with today being All Fool’s Day. We have a really strong team, the motivation is excellent and the team morale is flying high. Furthermore we have defeated them at Elland Road in mid-October, even though I have to admit that we didn’t necessary deserve those 3 points, being one of those few games that we used to lose in the past seasons. Yet, Arteta managed to turn that around somehow staking our claim for the title after a hiatus of more than a decade.
But we will be playing in front of a home crowd this time, and even though Leeds has collected 7 points from their last 4 games we are on a 6 victory streak already; and if we win today the 7 in a row will be a PL record for Arteta – however we would be still halfway from our 2002 run of 14 consecutive victories. Anyway, we are in good form, but to be fair only Fulham was in the top half of the table (hence my limited enthusiasm before the Liverpool game).
However, there are a few more reasons to be not to be worried. Saliba’s injury didn’t come at a good time (they never do), but Holding deputized him quite aptly. We avoided further injuries in the break, but that’s something Leeds couldn’t say about their players. They lost Tyler Adams, their best DM, and Leeds will miss Wilfried Gnonto from attacking midfield, too. Liam Cooper is back in action, and he has formed a decent partnership with Robin Koch, but they are far from invincible.
Their highest valued player is the Austrian AM Aronson, but his transfer price made a bigger impact on his (TransferMarkt) market value than his 3 goal contributions this season. Their have 3 in-form players at the moment in my opinion. Pascal Struijk is an underrated left back, a big fella with proper skills. He could and will make our RW life difficult, I’m afraid. Rodrigo is past 32, yet scored as many goals this season as the next 4 combined. He doesn’t have a strong presence in the penalty box, but his hold up play is decent, and the former Valencia hitman has a deadly left foot. His 11 goals against a 7.32 xG shows a clinical, efficient striker (+3.62) making him #6 behind Maddison, Phoden, Martinelli, Haaland and Almiron. But I expect our CBs to defend properly, as he has made only a single assist the entire PL campaign, so they should expect a shot rather than a through ball. That leaves us with former Liverpool, Manchester United and City rambler Harrison, who made 13 goal contributions this year, including 6 assist in the PL and further 3 in the FA Cup. If our boys can eliminate Jack, the game will be much easier. I expected to write more on their best player, but apparently the summer signing Sinisterra didn’t hit the ground running, and the Columbian is having an underwhelming debut season even with his injuries taken into consideration.
Leeds is dangerous at corners – scoring 7 (20%) of their 35 goals – but equally vulnerable there (conceding 6). They play in the same 4-2-3-1 formation Arsenal do, I think that will suit us. They really enjoy taking long shots. I expect a few today, but I think Ramsdale will be up to the challenge. Our boys will have to kill the game by scoring the third goal. Not only for the sake of entertainment, but Leeds has a strong track record of coming back from losing positions.
I will say something provocative, but I would give Saka the day off. He is in great form, but the Liverpool game is coming, and visiting West Ham isn’t a walk in the park either. He played 175 minutes in the interlull, I wouldn’t risk an injury in a game that we are favourite to win without him. Moreover, even if he plays, I don’t expect him to continue his current form. It is not easy to maintain anyway, and not many wingers have filed days against Strujk. So I would give the opportunity to Nelson. But whatever decision Mikel will made I take my chances and forecast our Gabis dominating the game, scoring at least a couple between/among them. Expecting Martinelli becoming MotM is the safer bet, but Jesus scoring would be a welcome surprise and a confidence booster nonetheless.
History is at our side. In the last 3 years, Leeds made a single point out of 7 games, and even that 0:0 draw took place on the road; and the last home defeat was 19 years ago. We have a great momentum (6 straight wins against inferior opponents), but the boys are yet to prove if the international break didn’t impair their concentration. Leeds won by 2:4 against 9-men Wolverhampton last round, but to be fair they have already scored 3 when the first Wolf – Jonny – was sent off. However this was their second away win this season, and I don’t expect today being the third.
Leeds is not facing a relegation battle just yet – with 26 points they are 2 above the relegation trio. Maybe they are yet to fight for their lives. However, I don’t expect them to stay up in the first tier. I know this is not about my PL predictions, but I see more reserve and provision in West Ham, Leicester, Nottingham or Everton.
Finally, let’s talk about the referee. Darren England hasn’t officiated a single game for us this season, but he was in charge of our season defining defeat against Newcastle last May. However, I think we played pretty bad on our own accord, at least I don’t remember major mistakes from his side. England is not a card bully – issuing only 2 reds in 19 games – but the 6 penalties are slightly alarming.
All in all I expect an entertaining April Fool’s Day afternoon, ending on a positive note, featuring a Holding-Gabriel partnership, 3+ goals, a clean sheet, miracles from Jesus, and a cameo from Smith-Rowe. I would really like to see Nelson play (and start), but I don’t expect it.
Let’s go and collect the last low hanging 3 point before the going gets tough!
I heard an interesting comment on an Arsenal podcast recently and one of the contributors opined that he felt that the current Emirates has a younger feel about it, that there seems, since lockdown, more young people in the stadium which could explain the more intense and exciting atmosphere the fans have generated this season, although it’s been a slow burner since Arteta arrived.
I felt right from the beginning of his tenure, unlike a few of his predecessors, that Mikel Arteta recognised the value of the fans, of course he did he’d been a part the febrile atmosphere of a Merseyside derby where the Scousers create an intense whirl of emotions probably only matched by an Old Firm game. So he brought into it straight away, saying all the right things in his interviews regarding how important the fans were and this remember was before lockdown and the rest of football were reminded why they play the game they do. This generation of players and coaches have been kind of re-educated once more of what the fans bring to the table of how the ordinary folk are as much of the occasion as those on the field of play – but Arteta was ahead of the curve and he’s worked on this narrative with his players from the start, they’ve bought into it and they include the fans, refer to the fans in interviews and it’s engendered a kind of family feel that I’ve not really experienced before even in a successful season, the collective will of everyone at the club is quite amazing and it’s continuing to develop, the support is constant even after we’ve conceded a goal and if at times it dips then Martin Odegaard, Alex Zinchenko et al will wave their arms at the fans to remind them of their part in this evolving scenario, all for one and one for all.
I’ve been very lucky, probably luckier than many of those young supporters who are now driving the club on because I’ve seen Arsenal lift six league championships, all of them magical in different ways, Anfield 89, The Invincibles, The Double team of 2002, the Almost Invincibles of 1991, my favourite the 1997/98 season, Wenger’s first double, Dennis Bergkamp’s finest season in an Arsenal shirt, a hoped for but unexpected success and I think the unexpected successes are the best.
I was a youngster when Arsenal won the league and cup double in 1971, it was again unexpected.
Back then, Arsenal were an uncompromising team of tough homegrown players like Peter Simpson, Peter Storey, Jon Sammels, George Armstrong and John Radford supplemented by experienced signings like George Graham from Chelsea, Bob McNab from Huddersfield Town who we fought off Liverpool to sign, Bob Wilson from Wolves who had signed as an amateur, Frank McLintock who had been a midfielder at Leicester but was now our centre half and inspiring captain and fringe squad players like centre-half John Roberts and one time club record signing Peter Marinello from Hibernian the Pepe of his day.
Into this mix manager Bertie Mee had included a group of young homegrown players who together had come through the apprentice scheme at Highbury, as the academy players were termed back then, the likes of Scotsman Eddie Kelly, Cockney Irishman Pat Rice, Northern Irishman Sammy Nelson, Geordie born Ray Kennedy and my hero and Holloway born and bred Charlie George. These young guys added that spark of magic to the resilience of the experienced guys and they wouldn’t allow firm favourites and Don Revie coached Leeds United to shake them off. Arsenal kept nibbling away, despite all the pundits expecting Leeds to win the title no doubt because Arsenal had finished 12th the previous season.
But Frank drove the team on, he was magnificent, inspiring, a giant of a man just like Tony Adams, he lived and breathed Arsenal, George Graham ‘stroller’ brought his laconic laid-back style to the table scoring 11 critical goals in 38 league games, Pat Rice was the epitome of hard graft, working on your skills, making the absolute maximum of your talent, a kind of Ray Parlour character but Pat could play and would go on to become an Arsenal captain and coach – and then there was Bob Wilson, nobody charged out of his goal and went head first into the flailing boots like Bob, how many goals he saved that season with his unfussy, almost gentlemanly style befitting the university graduate that he was. All four were key components of that enduring championship winning team, a team that had ended 17 long, barren years without the league title in the Highbury trophy cabinet.
That 1970/71 team is legendary, every Arsenal championship team is legendary, it stays with you for the rest of your life and if you’re lucky enough you end up with a statue outside of the Emirates.
These are the current player stats for PL games only. It’s remarkable. No other team comes even close to having such a fine balance between goal scorers and assist makers (all in one person) in the PL.
Only 🌗 half moon face Kane (23) and Berserker Haaland (33) have more combined goals and assists than Saka. But they score many more goals than they produce assists. They are typically selfish CFs. Goal machines of whom their teams depend, and a bad day of the office can cost them dearly. Yet Saka delivers in almost evet game, and for me he is the Best Player in the PL.
I think it’s revolutionary how Arteta has changed the team into a goals-from-anywhere/anybody team.
Arsenal have become almost totally unpredictable and robust. And when our main CF, Jesus, became seriously injured the team absorbed the loss instantly. His replacements, firstly Eddie and then Trossard, did a great job, but it was the collective sense of responsibility and ability of the team which really kept us going, and that’s why we are still within distance of Man City’s incredible, Haaland-power-fed goal difference.
Goals and assists are every midfielder and attacker, and even defender’s, responsibility. And that’s a main driver behind our current success.
A bullsh*t final (19/03/23) – Crystal Palace game preview
The purpose of these post is a pre-game analysis, so I’m not supposed to say (much) about our recent elimination from the Europa League. So I will be brief – albeit many of you know that is mission impossible for me.
We lost games this season. Fortunately not too many – 6 altogether – and we did that with the A+ team (Saka, Martinelli, Ode – against Manchester United or Everton), the A- team (with Trossard, Nketiah, Jorginho – against Man City 2x and Sporting), and with our B team (Hein, Soares, Elneny, Lokonga, Vieira, Marquinhos, Holding, Tomi) against Brighton and PSV. So it happens. Not particularly big deals. It’s unpleasant, but we have to move on.
What we shouldn’t do is to create false explanations to justify those. And there are 2 untrue excuses going around in Arsenal communities. First, that our squad is too thin to fight in 2 competitions. Firstly it’s not. We have capable backup-guys (maybe apart from Kiwior and Vieira, who still have to prove themselves) in every position. We shouldn’t confuse Tierney, Jorginho, Tomiyasu, Trossard or Smith-Rowe with our earlier generation of squad players like Sokratis, Coquelin, Kolasinac or Willock. And we did quite alright until this Thursday – albeit there is not much to be proud of in our domestic cup runs – plus we’ll practically have the same squad (+ Rice/Caiceido/SMS/Neves) to stand strong in the PL, the CL and the cups next season. It is deep enough – if we can keep the majority fit. Secondly, don’t fool ourselves that Arteta didn’t want to win the tie. If he wouldn’t, then Turner, Tierney, ESR, Holding and Kiwior would have started, and the first 4 penalties wouldn’t have been taken by our best attacking players. We tried and we failed, fair and square.
With that said, let’s forget the narrative that we have 11 finals left to play. We have negligible chance to win them all, and apart from our sure loss in the Etihad we will likely lose points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle. We have to do our very best – and hope that City will lose points in the same fashion – but the boys are doing their best on a constant basis anyway, regardless of the league position or our exposure in other competitions.
So I wouldn’t talk about finals – at least before 29/04. And definitely not on hosting Crystal Palace. We defeated them on the road in the first round, and we became better while they are sinking at the moment (they are sitting at the bottom of the form-table based on the last 12 games). This and the home support should result in a comfortable win: my prediction Arsenal 4 – 0 Crystal Palace.
Obviously, that doesn’t mean that we should take this game lightly. That would be unsportsmanlike, and probably counter-intuitive, as the boys have to demonstrate that the Sporting-fiasco was merely a glitch, and they are in full control again. Joachim Andersen is their best player this season, but despite his height and passing confidence, he is no real threat to Ramsdale, as he scored only a single goal in the last 1.6 season. And this is their Achilles-tendon: they seem to struggle creating dangerous situation in the opponent’s box. Zaha is Palace’s top scorer with 6, while Olise and Eze are capable of creating some chances. But if we manage to neutralize the trio, then we are in for another clean sheet, even though Arsenal is famous for individual errors; one of the few weaknesses Arteta couldn’t get rid of our portfolio yet. Which happened in almost all our defeats this season, but this should be a topic of a different post.
Supporting their impotent attack they have a quite capable defensive line. In their last 10 games they conceded a mere 9 goals, and only Manchester United managed to hit them twice. Andersen’s merits were already mentioned, however I think Guehi is a perfectly average defender. Doucouré is a hardcore DM, but the Malian is a card magnet, and will likely get booked today, too. But their major concern should be the goalkeeper, as Johnstone is out on a long-term injury, and Guaita is doubtful; so there is some chance that 19-year-old Joe Whitworth will stand between the sticks again – hence is my prediction of such a confident victory. And the lack of Patrick Vieira.
Because I almost forget to mention, that after the winless streak of 11 games – their last victory happened in 2022 the longest such run in the PL – the club fired Arsenal’s former legend from the bridge. It may have seemed more logical to make a call on the manager’s position after this game during the upcoming international break, but Palace are potentially sparing Vieira further embarrassment in this incredibly difficult fixture. Anyway, as far as I know they didn’t appoint a successor yet, so hopefully the Sean Dyche effect will not apply today. That should give the boys some confidence, but we have won our last 5 PL games, so the odds are on our side big time.
That’s undisputed, even though our last 3 meetings with CP in the Emirates all ended draws. But it is history, and in the current season Arsenal have picked up 32 points in the Emirates, only City (34) have picked up more on home soil in the league this PL campaign. Crystal Palace have only scored nine goals away from home in the league this season, only three teams have scored fewer – I expect to see little to no pressure on the Holding-Gabriel partnership.
By the way, line-up. The team had some unfortunate injuries, so I expect White going back to RB and Holding retaining his role from Thursday. Party and Xhaka should be our main engine today, and I predict the return of the lethal quartet of Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli and Jesus after a 3 months break. So apart from Saliba we will play with our strongest XI, hence my optimism to continue scoring 3+ goals as happened in 8 games from our last 13 PL matches.
Currently we played the same number of games as reigning champions Manchester City. But since they have played in the FA Cup yesterday (winning impressively by 6:0) we will go into the interlull with a game more, so it would be intimidating to extend the lead at the top of the Premier League to 8 points. Which has limited relevance to be honest as after the inevitable loss in the Etihad and completing their game in hand it’s still only 2 points, but maybe it can inflict some psychological damage, who knows…
We will be playing against a mirror formation of 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 with Stuart Atwell officiating, who was the referee when we defeated Wolves at the Molineux Stadium by 2:0 with Odegaard’s double. Palace have conceded 34 goals in the PL this season, with 17 (50%) in the last 30 minutes. Despite our Thursday game might still be in the legs, with proper substitutions and game management we have a good chance to exploit their seemingly short stamina.
Let’s go and see the boys erasing the bitter memory of Thursday’s loss on penalties in the first-ever senior competitive shoot-out to be held at Emirates Stadium. I hope I’m not being too optimistic, and definitely not jinxing it, but if we manage to break the dam early in the first half and the goals keep raining, the margin could be even bigger than my prediction above.
Bergkampesque 