Bergkampesque

Losing to Crystal Palace was of course disappointing but, at least to me, it did not come as a big surprise. PL games after mid-week European games seldom or never come easy. We also knew that CP have been playing very well away from home, especially against the bigger teams, and still needed points to achieve PL survivor for another season. Roy Hodgson is of course a very competent manager, possibly the best English manager around, and seems to take a special joy in out-cunning his fellow PL top managers whenever possible (I think Wenger once described Roy as ‘uber-competent’).

It did not make sense to me that Emery chose to make so many changes and leave the likes of Torreira and Nacho on the bench. I also did not understand why we had to play with five defenders in a 3-4-3 formation with Sok, Holding and Bellerin not available. The argument of players needing rest/ the squad needing to be rotated goes some way, but we were playing CP at home and really needed those three points; with only one home game left and three away games still to come, we had to do everything to at least get full points from this penultimate home game.

Playing a make-shift back-five of Jenks – Mavro – Kos – Mustafi – Kola and then have them protected by the lacking-in-confidence, Elneny, and defensively frivolous, Geundo, was simply asking for trouble. Why not play 4-2-3-1, with Must-Mavro-Kos-Nacho, protected by Torreira and Elneny/AMN? That would have left Emery to play four up-front. And a combination of a much more solid defensive set-up with a more balanced attack surely would have given us a much better chance to get the much needed three points?

I am yet to be convinced about Emery’s tactical nous and am particularly worried about his ability to get the midfield right, but this is only his first season and Arsenal still having a chance to finish in the Top-4, and even win the UEFA Cup, does mean that he is doing as much as we can expect from him right now.

Furthermore, Emery will have a chance to let some players go and buy a few new ones this summer, which will allow him to really put his stamp on the team. This is both exciting and scary. We could lose the likes of Mkhi, Ozil and Aubemayang this summer and their replacement may become flops. But of course he could also make the right decision and truly strengthen our squad in a few key places.

However, the idea that it is just a matter of giving Emery a big enough budget and it will all become really good, doesn’t wash with me. The Spuds did not buy anybody last summer and Pool have turned the likes of Wijnaldum, Milner and Matip, and  one or two youngsters, into a mean footballing machine. Football intelligence, tactical nous and excellent man-management are the real ingredients of success. A bit of money will help too, of course, but we will likely never be the sort of club with the funds of a RM, Barcelona, PSG, Bayern, MC or MU, who in the past have been able to buy their silverware through spending enormous amounts of cash. And I don’t want us to become such a club either.

I like us to do it the romantic and clever way, and Emery needs to be another Arsene in terms of football vision, tactical ability and finding and developing the sort of players that will make us play great football that now and again also leads to winning fine silverware.

It is too early to say whether Unai is our man, but the way he approached the game on Sunday – and let’s also not forget the recent (tactically) poor games v Everton and Watford – still leaves the jury well and truly out.

Wednesday’s game v Wolves will be another test of his managerial ability, no doubt.

Come On The Arsenal!

By TotalArsenal.

 

6 CHANGES AS WE ENTER THE LAST 21 DAYS OF A GRUELING SCHEDULE.
(ARSENAL/PALACE PREVIEW)

We have seven more games to play in all competitions between now and 12th May when the premiership season ends. That’s approximately a game every three days. OGAAT (one game at a time) isn’t sustainable any more. It is now all about players rotation to keep fresh the legs and keep players away from the red zone. Would we then again see Aubamayang and Lacazette together in our starting line up this season? Maybe in the Europa cup final if we get there. Maybe I said this because with Emery one can never tell.

Meanwhile the premiership teams that we still have to face have each four or five more games left. That’s a huge advantage for them over us apart from the fact that in this month of April we have already played five games while for example our today’s opponent Palace have played only twice. They would be much fresher and further away from the red zone than us. However, Palace and co. are not the crucial things.

Having more bearing to our fortune is the fact that three out of our four immediate competitors in the Premiership and Europa are in the same boat with us with seven games each over the same period: Tottenham, Chelsea and Valencia. Manchester United, out of the Champions League, have two fewer games to play but I do not envy their schedule which includes Everton at Goodison today and City and Chelsea at home, this Wednesday and Sunday respectively.

How would Emery navigate through this most grueling schedule? Let us start the first trip, destination unknown.

GOALKEEPER: Leno in goal for sure.

DEFENCE: Our first choice 3-man central defence is Sokratis, Koscielny and Monreal. Each time they played together our defending has held well. Sokratis would be serving the last of his two match ban. Koscielny and Monreal both have just been through three 90 minutes of football in one week. Both need to be rested but I doubt we would be able to afford that. A defensive line that includes all or any three of Mustafi, Mavropanos, Lichsteiner and Kolasinac would be poor in progressing the ball forward and defensively they might be prone to lapses. One of Koscielny and Monreal has to be played.

MIDFIELD: Ramsey is out injured. Available are Xhaka, Torreira, Guendouzi and Elneny. Torreira played the 90 minutes on Thursday. I expect him to be rested with Xhaka and Guendouzi starting.

FRONT PLAYERS: Ozil would be back. Aubamayang needs some resting and so should start on the bench. That would mean Lacazette leading the line. The third attacking player would be a toss between Mkhitaryan and Iwobi.

My predicted line up:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Leno~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~Lichsteiner~~~Mustafi~~~Monreal~~
M-Niles~~Guendz~~Xhaka~~Kolasinac
~~~M Ozil~~~~Lacazette~~~Mhkitaryan~

With six changes plus the fact that Lacazette and Xhaka were substituted early against Napoli means that enough fresh legs in the team is guaranteed. Remember we will play Wolves on Wednesday and Leicester on Sunday, both away. Phew!

Bench: Cech, Mavropanos, Jenkinson, Elneny, Torreira, Iwobi, Aubamayang.

Crystal Palace lead the league in the number of goals earned through penalties @ 10 goals. 45% (highest in the league) of their attack comes from the left field. Who is at the centre of these stats? Wilfried Zaha. Shackle him and shackle Palace.

As a side show we are going for a record 11th consecutive home win. In the the main show, the Spuds lost yesterday so if we beat Palace we leap frog them into 3rd place on the table.

COYRRG!!!

By PE

WE MUST PLAY ON THE FRONT FOOT/ AUBA-LACA TO START.

Emery said in the press conference that his team would play to win. I think that is a smart strategy. We have a team that always plays to win. It is their conditioning and their comfort zone. To try something else would leave them feeling out of sorts. Mind you, Emery’s statement is only a reference to the team’s mental approach to the game. His choice of formation and personnel could still be tilted defensively.

How is he going to balance it all up? It’s difficult to predict. He knows that Napoli is the best possession team in La Liga. He’s heard Ancelotti talk about how we started tiring in the later stages of the 1st leg and how he hopes to take advantage of it. He knows that Napoli has had an extra day of rest but he also knows he’s rotated his players all season up to our last match in anticipation of matches like this. He also knows that he has a 2-0 lead and that in the 49 matches that his team have played this season that it is only once (Liverpool at Anfield) that his team lost with more than two goals. Emery would be feeling confident that his team would qualify.

Cech, would be in goal. He is determined to end his career in style and we are all with him.

We can glimpse from the Watford match a few players that are bound to start:  Maitland-Niles and Kolasinac meaning a 3-man central defence that would include Sokratis who was absent at Vicarage Road with rested Lacazette leading the line.

Was Torreira substituted so early in our last match with Napoli in mind? Torreira is at his disruptive best against short passing teams. I expect him to start. Ramsey was also substituted early. Ozil played for 45 minutes, Guendouzi for less. Were they used for resting players for the Napoli game or were they rested to be used today? Never any clear answer.

I would play my best defender in a crucial match like this. Emery would have taken the decision to rest Koscielny instead in our next match against Palace at the Emirate. With all these cup finals the best players have to be pushed close to their red zones.

My prediction of the starting eleven:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Cech~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~Sokratis~~~Koscielny~~~Monreal~~~
M-Niles~~~Torreira~~Xhaka~~~Kolasinac
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ramsey~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~Aubamayang~~~Lacazette~~~~~~~

Aubamayang? Emery’s plan should be not to find his team chasing the game at any point so no point saving his ammunition. Aubama-bang one goal and they have to score four.

Bench: Leno, Mustafi, Jenkinson, Guendouzi, Mkhitaryan, Iwobi, Ozil.

We have played 49 games this season. Failed to score in only 6 of them. Conceded up to 3 goals in only 6 matches. Lost only once with up to 3 goals. This is a brew that tastes like we are going to qualify for the semi-final of the Europa League.

COYRRG!!!

By PE.

RAMSEY, TORREIRA AND XHAKA IS A MIDFIELD WITH PLENTY OF COJONES.

I haven’t looked at the odds for this fixture. I know it must be against us. After all it’s an away match. This season at away, we have only beaten:-
1) deep in relegation waters 18th placed Cardiff City,
2) bottom half 15th placed Newcastle,
3) already relegated 19th placed Fulham,
4) bottom half 12th placed Bournemouth,
5) already relegated bottom placed Huddersfield.

The away points accumulated so far this season by the the “big 6” teams are:-

1) Liv —— 38 pts @ 2.24 pts/g.
2) City —– 35 pts @ 2.19 pts/g.
3) Spurs — 33 pts @ 1.94 pts/g.
4) United – 29 pts @ 1.71 pts/g.
5) Chl. —- 28 pts @ 1.65 pts/g.
6) Ars. —- 19 pts @ 1.27 pts/g.

Thanks to our home form, where we already have 44 pts @ 2.59 pts/g, we are still a member of the B6. Such contrasting fortunes home and away can only mean a team with a mentality that is very susceptible to hostile away environments. Last season confirms this. With the core of the team made up of same players but under a different coach (Wenger), the pattern was the same.

Emery has been trying to solve this problem visible in the Ozil saga. Omitting Ozil from his away team seems not to have yielded the desired result but it’s probably a move in the right direction. There are some players who are undeterred by a hostile environment. If anything it pumps them up the more (think CR7). At the other end of the spectrum are others who are intimidated by it. The latest loss at Everton like the thread that broke the camel’s back must have Emery more determined than ever to pay greater attention to the resilience of each player in the selection of his away team. Here is how I would categorize them.

Group A: Leno, Sokratis, Lacazette, Ramsey, Torreira (the greater the odds against them the tougher they get). ….. Group B: Monreal, Xhaka, Guendouzi, Koscienly, Lichsteiner, Jenkinson, Mkhitaryan, Aubamayang, Cech (more or less on an even keel). ….. Group C: Iwobi, Elneny, Nketiah, Ozil, Mustafi, Kolasinac, Maitland-Niles (shouldn’t be expected to grab situations by the scruff of the neck). The others like Suarez and Mavropanos am unable to place.

Group A are my must away-starters unless for reasons of fitness, followed by Group B ahead of Group C.

Sokratis is not available as he starts the first of a two-match ban. Torreira, another in Group A, has served his three-match ban and is expected to start. Xhaka is in contention with a late fitness test.

With the mental resilience of each player more than ever on Emery’s mind, I expect this line up from him:-

~~~~~~~~~~~~~Leno~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

M-Niles~Mustafi~~Koscielny~Monreal.

~~~Torreira~~~Ramsey~~~Xhaka~~~

~Mkhitaryan~Lacazette~Aubamayang~

Bench:- Cech, Licsteiner, Elneny, Kolasinac, Guendouzi, Iwobi, Ozil.

In my opinion this starting eleven can stand up to the bullying of the Watford home fans, to the likes of Troy Deeney and to the usually pro home-team refereeing. I particularly like the midfield trio. The selection doesn’t  look that great on the wings. That should be the away trade off. I’d always take a boring, boring 1-0 win for the rest of the season. I hope Emery is there with me.

At this moment we are 6th on the table with this game in hand. It’s a must win game for us. A loss or a draw would mean a top 4 finish out of our hands.

Suggestions on how to improve our current squad’s away form are welcome. I know a lot of fingers would point in the direction of our defense. What about this? At home we’ve conceded only 12 goals with Liverpool and Chelsea being the only teams that have conceded less on 10 goals each. A poor defense per se should be leaking goals everywhere.

I detest Troy Deeney. I’d never forgive him for trolling us about our lack of cojones. It was all the more painful because he was right and they had just beaten us a Vicarage Road. Am still smarting and nothing would please me better than seeing him eat his words at the end of today’s encounter.

And what do you think of my groupings? Controversial? Let’s know yours.

COYRRG!!!

By PE

Arsenal Fighting…

On Two Fronts?  Does Emery have the squad?  Napoli Preview.

Let me cut to the chase.  I don’t think he has the squad to do so, EVEN though ALL we are fighting for is a return (promotion?) back to Champions League Football.  Under Arsene Wenger, such “ambitions” were ridiculed, but as a good Buddhist (like Wenger, maybe?…) might say, “Be Here, Now.”  Unfortunately, according to a recent interview given by the former manager, our new guy, Unai Emery hasn’t even called him.  To me, that’s a shame. Wenger, after all, signed a two year contract in 2017, his viewpoints might help inform the new guy or at least help the club through this big season of transition.

But, maybe just as we have to take the games one at a time, Arsenal can only have one manager at a time and Emery has his own ideas–not to mention his own contract!  And, he HAS given us not one but TWO shots at promotion back to the top tier of European competition. 

Still, I wonder: Could the best outcome (for the new regime, or at least Emery on his own two year contract) be competing deep into the Spring (just as we are…) but just missing out?

A corollary set of questions might be: Are Arsenal ready for Champions League Football?  Are we actually a “top” team, able to legitimately compete for the “top” trophies?  Or are we (merely) a top half (of the Premier League Table) club, currently only able to compete for the “not a trophy” (qualification for CL football) that somehow lies between the two “league” titles (PL and CL) and the lesser (domestic) cups?  Sure, you can name the cups “leagues” but Europa was just a gal who slept with Zeus, and/or the smallest of the moons orbiting Jupiter.  (By the same logic, why don’t we call them the Football Association League or the Filipino Energy Drink League?…) 

Luckily, football fans live in the moment, meaning that those neat exits (at home vs. two of our traditional rivals) in those (pesky) domestic cups happened way back in the haze of the English winter.   Frankly, I think we were fortunate to falter in those matches and Emery did good work rotating his squad enough so that we could have an excuse (or three) as we took the off-ramp out of those competitions.  Wise work.  Better yet, we avenged those defeats with a win vs. Manchester United and a draw (that maybe felt almost like a win) in the National Stadium vs Totts.  And, that was in actual league play, so, it’s reasonable to feel that we’re in the mix with those (other top?) teams in (at least one of) the race(s) for CL positions…

Or are we?  

Losing to a scrambled goal from a Delap (Pulis)-esque throw at Everton rather derailed our momentum and maybe better shows where we really stand.

 

Like the early season games, I found this most recent one just about unwatchable. Needing a goal, I have to ask, does this Arsenal team have a plan for getting them?  In my view, we simply are no longer an attacking team.  If we cannot lure opponents forward and play on the break I don’t see a plan B.  Where is the build-up work?  (At best, it’s passing it back to Bernd Leno, who frankly, kept the game tight when Everton should have put us away) and then maybe between the CBs and DMs for a bit before somebody tries a punt forward.  At least, compared to games in the early part of the season, there’s a bit more urgency, so a bit less of this meaningless possession. 

Call me an Arsen-achronist (if you must..) but I miss trying to push the possession forward (and the opponent back) combined with a bit of movement and creativity.  I know (I know…), a misplaced touch while executing such a plan is what leads to trouble the other way.  As such,  I’ve almost learned to feel excitement when we give the ball back to the opponent, hoping that they will show some of that “good football” but then maybe lose discipline as they stretch themselves into an attacking shape.  Then, if they make a mistake (maybe) we can capitalize.  A fast counter-attack, after all, if it’s your team doing it, (i.e., not chasing back) is about as good as it gets.

That’s about as positive as I can spin it.  More negatively, this Emery-ball feels all too close to what the Moo-dern game has become.  If Emery can’t get the job done (and we don’t give Arsene an extension…) maybe the next step is Jose and his special self.  The headline jumpers had Mourinho inked in for a 2nd stint at Real Madrid, so why not at our club?  (Zidane beat him to it, however, having left on MUCH better terms.)  What I think I might really enjoy is having Jose Mooing alongside AW in the commentary booth.  If football is ready for video replay, why not?   Instead (I’m Sarri to say…), we’re most likely to see him back at Chelsea.  (Personally, I’d take twenty Artetas and ten Henrys and even a pair of Ole Gunners at my club before any sort of special one…)  Let’s hope not and let’s hope that Arsenal have the “values” that Wenger always talked about.  Money-wise, he’s probably too special, anyway.  Kinda like Ramsey…or Ozil or Mkhi or some of the younger Gunners (Iwobi, Bellerin) who might seek greener pastures, you know where the teams win and where the creative, attacking football is still prized.  CL football is one thing, but so too is the way you play once you’re there, right?

Or maybe that’s for the neutrals (which perhaps I have become).  Maybe at this level it’s a results game, so, let’s get one vs Napoli.  And let’s have a bit of a preview.

Sorry, I got nothing.  I can predict an 11 (Cech, Lichtsteiner, Sokratis, Monreal, AMN, Torriera, Ramsey, Kolasinac, Ozil, Iwobi, Aubameyang) and suggest that we need to play hard (to keep that clean sheet) and worry about certain players and the opposing manager (little Insigne, big Carlo…), but, overall, we know that we don’t have too much in the way of flexibility as we try to compete (with a tiny bit of rotation) on the two fronts.  Personnel is limited, and, I fear, so too are our ideas.

The only thing that remains flexible is MY attitude.  Back to the CL could be fun but we are in no position, IN MY OPINION, to truly compete for that trophy, nor against the (two) top teams in our league.  IF I were a dreamer I’d say, hey, let’s win out and finish third in the PL AND hoist that Europa League trophy…and then let’s replace Ramsey with a former Spur or three (Modric, Bale, Eriksen, Dele… Hell, I’d even take Dier or Dembele or Son, etc., etc…) this summer.  Now THAT would be inspiring…

Back here in the real world, however, I guess we should keep trying in both comps until one or the other is gone and then try and ride the same 11 (or maybe 14 or 15) all the way to the barn.

That’s just one Glummer’s, er, Gunner’s, er, fella’s, opinion.  What say you, my (more positive) people?  Tell me about this match and/or about the bigger picture at our football club.

Go on then…

by 17highburyterrace

WHICH TURN WILL WE MAKE? THE CROSSROAD OF OUR SEASON/ EVERTON AWAY

It could be the most important game of our season, this away match against Everton. The form table says that in the last 6 premiership matches only City have collected more points than us (18 pts to our 16 pts) and only City have conceded fewer goals than us (1 goal to our 3). We are very much an in-form team but I must hasten to add that 4 of those 6 matches were home games in which we collected maximum points. We won one and drew the other (against the Spuds) in the two away matches. It could be argued that our present form has been unduly coloured by the home form which has been excellent all season. Or is there something else to suggest that we might have turned the corner as far as our away form is concerned?

The answer will be provided in the coming match against Everton. If we win it, it will be a big announcement that our form has become more than just home based and we might as well begin to celebrate our return to Champions League football. And me thinks we will win it.

In the 1st 10 games of the season we collected 22 pts. Not bad at all particularly for a team trying to come to grips with the philosophy and methods of a new coach. If truth be told, however, we had the rub of the green very much in many of those matches. Not that we cared.

In the 2nd 10 games of the season, with mother luck quite indifferent to proceedings, we gathered only mid-tablesque 16 pts.

In the 3rd 10 games, with our squad getting more and more at home with Emery’s tactics we again made 22 pts, and this time they were well earned.

We are now in the home stretch. Three points already in the bag, 7 games to go and, more than ever, Emery and his team seem to be on the same page. That is why I believe our current form is for real and why I think we will leavc Goodison Park with the 3 pts. But this is the premier league where you never count your chickens before they’re hatched.

Everton like to stretch the field. That suits Emery to fit in his best available players; Kolasinac, Maitland-Niles and Aubamayang our pace merchants, Lacazette and Ramsey sweat merchants, Ozil the creative genius and young Douzi full of precocious forward passes in place of doubtful Xhaka.

This front sextet have goals in them more so when they know that behind them is a defence, believe this, that has suddenly gone very mean. Our current player of the month, keeper Leno, was called to duty only once against the Benitez boys. Koscielny remains a doubt so expect the same back three that played against Newcastle to start.

Everton have arguably the premier league’s best left back in Digne. They have the outstanding holding midfielder Gueye, the immaculate Sigurdsson and the prolific Richarlison – the latter two with 12 goals each. Thanks to Everton’s big club mentality as well as the expansive football philosophy of coach Marco Silva, this is a match the neutrals are going to enjoy. As for the non-neutrals, we should get ready for a nail biting encounter as play swings from end to end.

You already can guess my prediction of the starting eleven:-

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Leno~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~Mustafi~~~Sokratis~~Monreal~~~~

M-Miles~~Ramsey~~Douzi~~Kolasinac

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ozil~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~Lacazette!!~Aubamayang!!~~~~

Bench: Cech, Lichsteiner, Elneny, Iwobi, Mkhitaryan, Suarez, Nketiah.

Currently we are 4th on the table with a game in hand. Finishing 3rd this season is still in our hands. We can’t let it go.

COYRRG!!!

By PE

The so called easy games, the home ones against the ‘non-top-six’ teams, we are supposed to win; and this we did. Even though Arsenal were expected to win, this was never going to be an easy game. The Barcodes sat back and wanted to beat us on the counter or via set-pieces, but we never let them in due to us playing at a high tempo and with constant pressure on the ‘back nine’ of the opponent. It was a great strategy by Emery to keep the Magpies in their own half almost constantly, never give them time to settle and keep cracking the parked busses open with quick and incisive passing. Master Mesut and work horses Ramsey and Lacazette were all immense in setting the tempo and drive the magpies  crazy, and all deserve the MOTM reward.

Player Ratings:

1. Leno: not much to do but focussed and dynamic with his ball distribution and he read the game well – 7;
2. Monreal: wonderfully aggressive and solid with his passing and positioning – 7.5;
3. Big Sok: calm leader with good aggression and positioning when required – 7.5;
4. Mustafi: a bit frantic and slightly careless at times with a couple of poor passes, but he also had good levels of energy and aggression and this was vital for the system Emery wanted to play versus the Barcodes – 7 All three CBs put in a great shift.
5. Kola: great aggression and forward runs. Some fine passes and crosses and decent defensive contributions. A bit more composure for the final ball and Kola will become a major force for us – 7.5
6. Ainsley M-N: same as Kola –7.5. This boy is going to be great. Such composure and athleticism.
7. Guendouzi: another boy with potential. He showed good aggression and energy and drove the ball forwards well, but his defensive positioning and protecting of the back three remains below par. A few good interceptions and quality passes though – 7
8. Ramsey: big motor and good passing and good defensive work too. Fine goal – 8.5
9. Ozil: strong focus on adding value to our attacking play (as always) and chief whip for the team. Some exquisite passes and a key outlet for our defenders and midfielders – 8.5
10. Iwobi: took a while to get into the game but also showed great energy and desire to penetrate the parked busses. A bit unfortunate with his final balls and lacked composure at times: 6.5
11. Laca: class act. Great goal which was a direct reward for his hard work. Should have had a second but the ref was determined to spare the Barcodes a spanking. Great work rate and constant bee in the defenders’ bonnet, but also has that bit of class and quality that makes the difference. I want to buy his shirt – 8.5

The Spuds are looking up and can see the red and white arses for the first time this season; long may it continue. Next up are the sweet Toffees. COYGs!

By TotalArsenal.

HAS IT ALL CRYSTALIZED FOR EMERY? TOP-4 BATTLE INTENSIFIES.
(PREVIEW ARS V NEWCASTLE).

Our last competitive match of a hectic schedule was on Thursday March 14th against Rennes. The inter-lull that followed afforded every member of our 1st team squad a change of environment excellent for refreshing the psyche. After such breaks, appetite for the “chores” won’t to be renewed, though invariably some cobwebs appear needing some dusting.

We were in a commanding form before the inter-lull. On their return to base, Emery’s immediate task would have been to get the boys quickly back to speed so as to keep riding the wave of the momentum as if there was never a break. I guess that wouldn’t require much from him beyond urging the boys in training to pass the ball quicker, to run faster and to jump higher. The goal: to reconnect them to their motor reflex memory.

Will he succeed? These boys are hungry. They know that every match from now on is a cup final and that there is no margin for error. Newcastle is an in-form team, managed by the experienced Rafa Benitez. Take them for granted and live to regret it.

Emery has done a lot of tinkering over the season and rightly so seeing that for him it is a new team and a new league. It now looks like it’s all crystallized for him. The team that waltzed through Rennes was the same team (cup keeper and Mustafi for suspended Sokratis apart) that spanked the top-form team, Man United. Is there any need changing a winning team? I don’t think so unless the changes are forced. But that is me. Emery likes responding to his analysis of opposing teams and what he comes up with might depend on what he thinks Benitez will do.

Benitez has been very pragmatic with his approach to games. He will come to the Emirate determined to deny Arsenal a goal. Expect the same 5:4:1 formation he has used against the bigger teams. With a draw, he has inched further away from relegation but Emery wouldn’t be in any mood to oblige him. Unai would respond by wanting to control the game and be patient with chances. That could make him revert to the 4:2:3:1 formation. If we score early the game would open up and that should add to our advantage. The Emirate finds its best voice when it is an open game.

Monreal and Ramsey, who were slight doubts, are back to full training. Though Xhaka was not in the injured list mentioned by our medical staff, he remains a doubt particularly as the recent team pictures did not capture him in training. My gut feeling is that he will be starting.

Predicted line up:-

~~~~~~~~~~~Leno~~~~~~~~~~~~

Niles–Sokratis~~Koscielny–Monreal.

~~~~Ramsey~~~~~Xhaka~~~~~

~~~Mk’ryan~~Ozil~~~Iwobi~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~Lacazette~~~~~~~~

Bench:- Cech, Mustafi, Lichsteiner, Kolasinac, Guendouzi, Suarez, Aubamayang

With the Spurs losing, Man U and Chelsea sneaking their wins this weekend only 1pt now separates the four teams jostling for the remaining two Champions League spot, though Arsenal have this Newcastle match in hand. Nothing could be tighter. We dare not lose this one, not when it is at home. Let us suck to death the morale of the visitors with 90 minutes of full support for our team.

COYRRG!!!

By PE.

Top Four is going to be an uphill struggle..

Arsenal have three remaining home matches against Newcastle, Palace and Brighton. With the 3rd best home form in the league behind City and Liverpool, these are winnable games. However, Arsenal’s away form has been poor, and of the eight remaining matches five are away from home, against a strong field of Everton, Watford, Wolves, Leicester and Burnley.

Arsenal’s average pts per game at home (pts/g@H) reduced to one decimal point is 2.6 pts and the average pts per game away (pts/g@A) is a lowly 1.4 pts.

Comparing Arsenal’s pts/g@H of 2.6 pts with the average pts/g@A of the away teams that they have to face gives:-
Arse v N’Castle — @ 2.6 > 0.9 statistically an Arsenal win 3 pts.
Arse v Palace —- @ 2.6 > 1.3 …………….. ditto ……………. 3 pts.
Arse v Brighton — @ 2.6 > 0.7 …………….. ditto ……………. 3 pts.

Similarly Arsenal’s away matches gives:-
Everton v Arse — @ 1.6 > 1.4 statistically an Arsenal loss 0 pts.
Watford v Arse — @ 1.6 > 1.4 …………….. ditto …………….. 0 pts.
Wolves v Arse — @ 1.6 > 1.4 ……………… ditto …………….. 0 pts.
L’cester v Arse — @ 1.3 < 1.4 statistically an Arsenal win  3 pts.
Burnley v Arse — @ 1.3 < 1.4 ……………… ditto ……………. 3 pts.

Therefore, for the remaining eight games Arsenal is statistically expected to add another nine pts from the home games and six pts from their away games. Add these to their current standing at 60 pts and they finish the season at 75 pts.

Applying exactly the same model with their top four competitors, their final season placing jumps out as:-
3rd —– Man United — 80 pts …… (5 home, 3 away games left).
4th —– Tottenham —– 79 pts …… (5 home, 3 away games left).
5/6th — Arsenal ——– 75 pts …… (3 home, 5 away games left).
5/6th — Chelsea ——- 75 pts …… (4 home, 4 away games left).

This, let’s not forget, is merely a statistical picture which says that Arsenal have an up hill task making it into the top four because of their poor away form. Their form away from home must improve. The huge disparity between the teams’ home and away forms last season continuing somewhat into this season defies simple analysis. Is it about tactics? Is it about cojones?

It’s been proven that it is a myth that red colour excites bulls as bulls don’t see colour. They would just as equally charge at a white cloth or any with those dull Arsenal away colours. I am not sure I can say the same of the Arsenal players. Red and it seems red only makes them bullish. If you ask me, whenever it’s possible in our away matches the team should don our red home jersey. No superstition here just plain psychology. I am that desperate. Aren’t you?

Tactics wise I feel Emery might have hit the right chord just in time. I like the 3-man central defence of Sokratis, Koscielny and Monreal with Leno behind. I like the industry of Ramsey from the double pivot role. Mainland-Niles has suddenly turned a matador and he is obviously enjoying it. Kola has been fully licensed for feeding the box with telling crosses and no one in the premier league does it better. Count on Lacazette’s positive energy home and away. This team has got stuff all over and they have readied themselves for a fight to the finish. They can be heard over and over again saying that champions league qualification is non negotiable in their thinking. Something tells me they’ll defy the stats and make it to the summit of this hill.

COYRG!!!

By PE.

One would expect the Rennes coach to set up his team to defend their 3-1 first leg lead. But their strength is in their attack: pacey wingers plus the mercurial Ben Arter whose play demands so much attention. Their coach might weight it all up and decide that the best way to defend their lead is by attacking. What he does however would be non of his counterpart’s business. Emery has only one option. To go out and fetch goals..

Emery would be thinking of at least 3 goals. Yes 2 goals would do it if we don’t concede but that would be heart in the mouth. In spite of his clear mission Emery has to get his balance right, a balance that must be tilted offensively. Easier said than done as he still has to balance between goal scorers and goal creators. They need each other. Ramsey and Mkhitaryan look as likely starters. They are creators that carry some goal threat and at the same time able to work a shift defensively.

Emery would like to use the speed of Maitland-Niles and Kolasinac to pose a challenge to the speed Rennes have on the flanks and this might necessitate a back three of Mustafi, Koscielny and Monreal (Sokratis suspended).

The Arsenal man would be very tempted to play Leno. But would he? Lacazette whose ban was reduced to two matches is available for today’s game. Is it him or Auba or both of them? And what about Ozil with Emery so much keen on lots of chances being created? Balance, balance, balance …… damn it. Emery has only 11 places to fit in players.

Predicted line up:

———————–Cech——————

—–Mustafi. Koscielny. Monreal—-

M-Niles. Ramsey. Xhaka. Kolasinac.

———Mkhitaryan    Ozil—————

—————–Aubamayang————

Bench: Leno, Lichsteiner, Torreira, Guendouzi, Iwobi, Suarez, Lacazette.

Emery knows the worth of smuggling the 12th man into the team. Let’s do it for him.

COYRG!!!

By PE.