Marten Odegaard is in the form of his life. He had to miss out on the world cup; oh boy is he making up for lost time. Hard work, super talent and an eye for beauty, just like the saint in boots this blog is named after used to offer. The Ode covers our game with the magic of the Northern Lights.
Eddie, Marti and Bukayo all scored which is great. Yet from our four goals only Odegaard got an assist. Martinelli has a strong eye for goal but not so much for his fellow attackers. This time we got away with it. I am all for directness now and again but picking the best option is key to long term success. Saka does this constantly; Martinelli needs to incorporate it into his game.
Eddie delivers again. Is he as mobile and involved as Jesus is for 90 minutes? No, but he works hard and delivers when it matters. Eddie is doing great.
Granit is a bit too quiet for my liking. I understand that he had a busy world cup and is easing himself back into club football, but we will need more from him in the next couple of PL games. Partey seems to have adjusted a bit better and was a rock last night.
Subs are such a balancing act. We looked like we wanted to ease out the game as soon as Ben White left the pitch, and it got worse when Partey was also subbed. The loss of cohesion and focus was palpable, but luckily we got away with it this time.
I love the roles of White and Zinchenko in Arteta’s system. Super mobile, multi-skilled and with strong personalities, they support all three areas constantly. They are where the action is and are the extra man where and when it matters, and they make a huge difference.
Saliba, like Xhaka, does not seem to be firing from all cylinders since his return from the Folly in the Sandpit. I am not concerned, though. This tequila will be slamming and fizzing soon enough.
I am so proud of our boys. With Citeh and the Oily Magpies dropping two points in not-hard home games (on paper), there was an extra incentive – but also pressure – to get three points from the high-flying Seagulls. They managed to do so and I salute them for it.
Supporting Arsenal has been a joy for more than 25 years for me, but this is certainly one of the best seasons so far. Maybe it’s the best one yet.
What is supporting a team all about? How do we measure success? Is winning silverware the ultimate happiness bringer?
We all have our views re this and I look forward to your responses.
First of all I believe in fairness. It should be ideally possible for all league teams to win the PL one day. We have some way to go here but at least we don’t see league domination by one or two teams as is the case in many other European competitions. Share out the money and have budget caps, and let it all come down to clever management and youth development. I can only dream, I know.
I like Arsenal’s management team to have a vision and strategy, and to adhere to a strong and appropriate set of values. This needs to be embodied in the linchpin and figurehead of the club: the first team manager.
This is where I believe we have become stronger than almost any PL club, bar Man City perhaps for now. Arteta constantly talks about non negotiables. It’s the talk of somebody who knows the awesome, all-winning power of a culture of strong values, which goes above anything. Arteta works very hard and is very strong tactically, but what I rate above all is his believe in values as the main prerequisite to success. His lives and breathes them.
We are starting to pick the fruits of this now. Yes we are top of the league but it’s still very early days; and this may change and is not what really matters this season.
What matters to me is how structural and solid it all feels now. We defend and attack as a team, we have strength in depth in two out of three areas – defence and midfield – and are close to it in attack. Arteta has buy-in from the players: they fight as a team and for each other; they play with a plan and with belief in themselves; they are growing from strength to strength together. Those who did not fit this culture have gradually left.
Arteta has also buy-in from the BoD whose strategy is starting to pay off.
There just is such a solid basis now that even if the team faces a blip in form it has all the components to bounce back strongly.
That, rather than our lofty league position, is what makes me so happy and hopeful for 2023 and beyond. And let anyone try and dethrone us!
Fellow Bergkampesquerers, I wish you a happy, healthy New Year full of growth, grace and hope both for you and your family and for our beloved Arsenal.
Victory Through Harmony. Enjoy the Journey with captain Mikel.
3-1 to the Arsenal, London is Red, and the Gunners are back on track!
Eight Observations
We may have a young squad, look at our attacking line of Martinelli, Nketiah and Saka alone, but they all look so confident and mature when they come out of the dressing room. This alone tells you about the great work El Maestro has been doing with this squad.
West Ham defended their double walled castle like medieval Constantinople in the first half. They would have five players to defend either Saka’s or Martinelli’s wing, have the impressive Rice marshall the midfield wall and allow us very little space. Then they had a few dangerous forays that had our defenders working hard to just about stem the danger. The Hammers were impressive.
From one of those forays the Hammers got their lucky break. Saliba just about gave a pen away and, against the run of play, the Gunners were behind. But the team didn’t panic, didn’t start to rush things and just kept chipping away at the West Ham wall. Adversity is part of the game, just as much as luck is, and then a team (or indeed any individual) needs more than ever to fall back on their inner confidence and belief; and that’s what they did. Another sign of this team’s astonishing maturity.
The Ode was once again the master of invention. No brute force from him. No, this Wicky the Viking uses his brains to find openings. We may have lost the first half but I can watch it again and again just for Martin’s masterclass.
There was no need to panic, the spaces would surely come. The Hammers would get weary and tired, and then our big chances would come. We needed a bit more from Martinelli with his final balls into the box. He now has to show that he can thrive without his big brother, Jesus, next to him on the pitch, but other than that we needed more of the same.
The second half was brilliant. Spaces opened up and the boys sacked the Hammers’ citadel to the ground. This was a masterclass of how to do this by Arsenal. Saka was once again super effective. Almost everything he does has purpose and therefore carries a threat and this is so rare for such a young talent. Okay, we needed a bit of fortune to get us in front. Or did we?! The Ode shot/through-pass to Saka was well intercepted by Bukayo and his finish was Henryesque cool. I believe the Ode meant the pass to Saka. He saw the gap but it needed to be a very fast ‘shot’-pass. He did something similar for Granit in the first half. Whatever it was, it got us in front, and the rest became easy.
Martinelli scored a cheeky goal at the near post with the ball just bouncing over Fabianski’s outstretched right leg. And then Eddie produced his magic to roll his defender brilliantly and get a free shot on goal. There were more chances but 3-1 was a good final score to take us eight points above Citeh, who will face unpredictable Leeds tomorrow.
The big question at the beginning was will Eddie make us forget GJ9. Well, I think JYNC summed it perfectly in the previous post: “I saw enough of Nketiah to know that even though he was a top scorer in all youth ranks for Arsenal and England…. he’s a totally different player now. No longer a fox in the box poacher…It’s all happened in the past 2 years under Arteta. The power, pace, strength, explosiveness. Has picked up some habits from Jesus too.If he hadn’t scored today, I would have been praising his gameplay anyway. He worked for his teammates.” special mention also for Ben White who was instrumental in making our right wing so deadly strong.
Thank you for visiting and commenting on our webblog this year. A year in which the blog had its 10th anniversary and we have been witnessing Mikel’s transformation, making us the happiest club-supporters on these shores and beyond.
The Arsenal unite us but its the human warmth and support for each other that makes it extra special on Bergkampesque. Thank you for all the football and non-footie support this year. You have been amazing. I raise my Arsenal mug to you all!
Here is to a Blythe Yule an’ a Guid Hogmanay, as they say here in 🏴
Domestic football bliss is about to recommence and I, for one, cannot wait to see the boys in red and white strutting their stuff again. It’s been a long wait, and boycotting the WC was not easy I can tell you, but Boxing Day is almost here and the real, winter club football is of course no match to the average football on display in most WC games.
Arsenal’s players have come through the WC games more than reasonably well, I think. Of course the loss to injury of the (perhaps) too eager Gabriel Jesus, is a big loss to us. Eddie will get his chance and he will score goals, no doubt, but what we really need him to do is make us play with the high tempo and unpredictability that the Brazilian offered to us so incredibly enthusiastically during the first fourteen games. Is that Eddie’s game? I hope so.
But other than Gabriel’s painful loss, we may have actually benefited from the WC shenanigans in the big sandpit:
Aaron will have learned a lot from being part of the England squad for so long. He stayed fit and did not get injured. The same goes for Ben White and our French Tequila CB. They will come back fresh, rested yet fit, and eager to kick a ball properly again.
Bukayo got through the tournament uninjured and by all reports played very well. He will have matured again. Young Martinelli will have had a great experience and I also expect him to come back more mature and ready to show everyone how good he really is.
Xhaka and Partey played all available games and came through unscathed. They had plenty of rest since then, so I expect them to hit the ground running again. To have our central midfield pairing back is a huge bonus. Tomiyasu also played some national team footie and he will be ready to rock, if required.
And then of course, Arteta had the chance to rest a bit and work with all those really good players who did not make it to the WC. It is great to have the likes of Gabriel, Tierney, Elneny, the Zinch, Eddie, Vieira, Nelson and the Ode available to fight for every three points again from Monday onward. Mikel now also had proper time to work with the youngsters and let’s see who will get some PL minutes in the remainder of the season.
Finally, the really good thing is that A&E have the whole of January to seek reinforcement for our attack. Any further injury to Eddie, Martinelli or Saka would really see us short in attack, so a loan or permanent deal is surely highly likely.
But first we need to beat the Hammers and the Seagulls, on Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve respectively, and that will of course not be easy. So let’s go back to OGAAT – one game at a time – and forget about the rest. The boys are ready; I have no doubt about that. Let’s hope the team will gel really well again and pick up where they had left things before the WC.
Just a bit of fun whilst we wait for the real footie to recommence and the folly in the sandpit finally comes to an end (let there never be a world cup in winter again!).
34,34,105,122.622635
Imagine…
You won a prize, the prize of a lifetime. You will travel across the globe in eighty days with a current or former Gunner – player or manager, male or female – by ViP car, boat and plane.
Who would you pick to travel with you?
Which one Arsenal game would you want to watch with them again and again?
What three music albums would you bring along?
What three books would you discuss with them?
Which three places would you insist on visiting with them along the journey?
What three big football questions would you ask them?
Which extra guest would you invite for the Paris to Istanbul sub-journey?
Which Arsenal season would you want to rewatch all over again with them?
A confession. I’ve been living with this shame for about 2 years now.
When the club was exploring winter window options a couple of years ago, I said here and to my gooner friends that I didn’t want Martín Ødegaard. Not because I didn’t think he was good enough. I remember watching compilations of his skills at the time, I thought he looked to have as high a ceiling as I could imagine. If we were going to make moves for the rebuild, I wanted us to buy (or loan with an option to buy) some players that would become permanent building blocks.
I assumed Madrid would never let go of Ødegaard even though they weren’t giving him a chance to play. Couldn’t they see his sublime touch and passing skills, movements eluding defenders ? Reminded me of Ozil (another player they undervalued) in many ways, except most reports said that he was an excellent presser with workrate. Why would any team let this kid go?
What I underestimated was the brilliance of our manager as a teacher and motivator of young players, especially attackers. The evidence is undisputed from Sterling, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus. Sane gives him more credit than Guardiola. The fact that Arteta could sell the project on substance, to a player with just a few months of exposure surprised me.
At that point I still had doubts about Arteta, unlike TA. I guess Edu also deserves credit for sounding out the players agent about his openness to a permanent move, and his frustration at Madrid. The fact that he would push for a permanent move away from Madrid is a credit to Edu and Arteta together.
Now we have a young captain who carries himself as a perfect example of hard work, along with the God given skills. So much so, that even I forget to give him credit after wins because we are so spoiled by his consistency.
His distance covered stats are usually top. He keeps his cool when his teammates Big Gabriel, Xhaka, and others get feisty. Chances created, timing and touch on passes that deserve to be coverted into assists more. Still he shows no frustration outwardly and just goes right back to doing his job leading the press and creating opportunities.
Even with decent backup options in Smith Rowe and Vieira, I think Ødegaard is the player I most fear losing from the starting lineup for even a short time. He’s so good that I’m still apologizing for doubting the wisdom of 2 years ago.
Gabriel Jesus is out for a while, and the fact that the club has not given an indication of how long it is likely to take for him to return to the team does not bode well. With the January TW only a few weeks away, I can fully understand why the club have not made public how long it is going to take; it would undermine their negotiation position quite a bit. I always felt we would get an additional attacker in the coming TW anyway, but now there is even more need for it. We need more strength in depth and an experienced winger/CF is required imho.
But it all remains to be seen whether the excellent Edu and Arteta will be able to get what they want mid-term. So this post is about how the club can fill the huge gap GJ9 will leave behind during his absence (however long that will turn out to be).
Key is to find a replacement internally that will allow Arteta to keep playing the same sort of football and tactics. PB’s excellent previous post describes in detail what the man with the best-ever emoji-face has to offer. In my own words: Gabriel Jesus is a whirlwind of an attacker who creates chaos and restlessness in defences; he has that rare ability to dribble in very tight spaces and penetrate the box on a regular basis; he is very fit and mobile and just never stops; he sets the tempo in attack and is an example for the other attackers, and; he is a winner.
The real question is, do we have a player with the same qualities and characteristics?
Eddie: will do his best to fit the shoe but is a different type of CF with different qualities. I don’t think he will be the like for like replacement.
Balogun: I would leave him in beautiful Reims till the end of the season. I have not seen enough in action of him but I don’t think we should ask him to fill the speedy Brazilian’s shoes yet.
ESR: as a false-9 there is potential to do the job but the required dynamism and fitness would be a concern. A good dribbler and taker of chances he is for sure, but we are looking at another whirlwind of a CF and I don’t think that’s Emile’s strength.
Martinelli: well, I think GJ9 adopted younger brother could be the almost perfect match. He, just like Jesus, just never stops and is a total pain to any defence. He has that all important dribbling into the box ability and would relish to play more centrally. The gap he would leave behind on our attacking left could be filled by a fit ESR or Nelson, or even Vieira.
Saka: another strong option imo. Bukayo is ahead of Martinelli in his development and I think he could play the GJ9 role as well as anybody in the team. The problem is that Bukayo would leave an even bigger gap on our right than Martinelli would leave on our left in attack. Nelson or Marquinos are options, and so is the new Vieira, but they all would struggle to offer what Saka does on the right on a constant basis. Yet I believe that Saka would relish the opportunity and would be a fearsome CF in Arteta’s system.
All in all, I reckon we will buy a new attacker anyway to improve our strength in depth. But if Arsenal fail to do so – and there is absolutely no point in just buying somebody who Edu/Arteta are not totally sure about – Martinelli seems to me the best option all together, both for the CF position as well as the wider balance of the team.
Has there been a better striker signing than this summer’s Jesus?
When we have a drought on Arsenal stories (apart from the perpetual gossips on signing Mudryk, Tielemans and Danilo) let me use the opportunity to revisit some of the key summer signings. I would like to compare our choice with those players who were signed by other clubs for the same position, if they were rumored with Arsenal.
Let me start with the strikers. I aim to compare the performance of Gabriel Jesus with 12 of his peers: Richarlison, Vlahovic, Isak, Toney, Scamacca, Abraham, Osimhen, Jonathan David, Calvert-Lewin, Nunez, Gouiri and Lacazette. It might be a bit strange list as Haaland is not there – I left him out as he was never an alternative to Jesus, even if we could afford the money City got ahold of Haaland. Vlahovic is a story from January (but still was a viable alternative at that time), and Lacazette is a reverse transfer, nevertheless we had the option to offer him a new contract.
For the sake of comparison I had to use a few simplifying assumptions.
The basis are the last 4 months only, as I don’t care how good or bad they were playing the previous years.
The players’ performance is independent from their current club, meaning they could have delivered similar results with similar outputs if they were playing for Arsenal. The type of competition (league, Europe, domestic cup) is also irrelevant.
Their current market value is not the effect of their transfer money, but the other way around. Market values mostly reflect present and predicted future performance. (However, I’m not entirely sure about that.)
While WhoScored and TransferMarkt are reliable sources when it comes to minutes, appearances, shots, passes etc. they are also unbiased and dependable when estimating performance ratings and market values.
When comparing the strikers I had to come up with a mathematical-statistical model. I considered many factors, and eventually combined them together. Let me start with listing those aspects, and immediately list who were the best players in those individual regards:
Goal contribution per game (a.k.a. average of goals and assists per 90 minutes played in all competitions and league only) – Osimhen (with 13 total and 12 in the league) and Nunez (11/7) are the leaders here. Toney (14/12), Jesus (12/10), David (12/12) and Lacazette (12/12) made similar outputs, but they used a lot more games and minutes, hence is their disadvantage. The worst players here are DCL (1/1), Scamacca (6/2) and Abraham (6/5).
Relative market value increase (their current worth in percentage of their value before the transfer) – the best players here are Isak (167%) and Jesus (150%), but I’m sure that the main reason behind Alexander’s jump from 30M to 50M is the 70M Newcastle has spent on him. The list concludes with Lacazette (80%) who is on the decline because of his age, and DCL who was probably simply overrated when was rumored to Arsenal in the first place.
Revised player rating (league ratings corrected with MotM awards) – lead by David (who had the most league MotM awards with 3), followed by Jesus and Lacazette. The players trailing the most are Abraham, Scamacca and DCL, but in their defense, I have to say they often played only fractions of games, which has a detrimental effect on the ratings and thus the – lack of – MotM awards.
Conversion rate (calculated by the shots per game stat, league minutes and goals scored) – the 2 top players are Gouiri (28%) and Isak (27%) here, but the latter suffered a long-term injury, so his record is based on a small sample. The worst striker is Richarlison in that regard, as he didn’t score a single league goal.
Key passes and tackles (per 90 minutes; as pressing and chance creation should be within the strikers’ focus nowadays) – lead by Lacazette (1,7+1,5) and Jesus (1,6+1,4), while Nunez (0,7+0,3) and DCL (0,2+0,2) are trailing at the other end of the list.
Age modifier (+2 if U21, +1 if 21-23, 0 when 24-26, -1 if 27-29, and -2 if 30+) – many of the players here received 1 extra point (Vlahovic, Isak, Scamacca, Osimhen, David, Nunez, Gouiri), and only Lacazette got -2.
Quality of chance utilization (xG-goals + xA-assists; indicating the execution of shots and delivery of final balls; even though the latter depends more on the abilities of the finisher than the actual creator) – mastered by Gouiri (+1,1), Osimhen (+0,8) and Vlahovic (+0,5), with Nunez (-2,3) Jesus (-2,6: by far the best xA-A stats, but the second worst xG-G) and Abraham (-5,1) at the end of the line.
Based on the combination of these aspects – with the emphasis on the revised player rating, and the goal contributions – as they could have been the sole factors in a less elaborated model, here are the final results without any consideration on the final transfer price:
The clear winner of the 13 is Gabriel Jesus. I might have been a slightly biased when weighing the factors, but the margin is convincing. He scored high on market value increase, had the highest league rating to begin with, and his 2 MotM ratings didn’t hurt his case either. His hard work is not an easily quantifiable, but the high key passes per game statistic also indicates his commanding presence and the energy he injects to the entire team.
The top tier are Toney, Nunez and Isak. Ivan had good scores in all aspects, albeit – somewhat surprisingly – never in the top 2 or 3. He scored the most goals in all competition from the strikers on the list, but the few assist and the lots of playing minutes prevented him from standing out. Isak scored high on value growth, which was a bit unfair, but his conversion rate justifies his presence in the top 3 (behind the winner). Nunez had produced great output for the limited minutes he played behind Jota and Firmino, but is a classic striker with minimal different contribution like key passes or tackles. Based on Undestat’s analysis, he actually should have scored and assisted a few more from his attempts.
The next 3 are Osimhen, David and Vlahovic – surprisingly 3 players outside the PL. Osimhen also had impressive scoring statistics, but his tackles are the joint lowest; basically, he is the Nunez of the Serie A. Jonathan David scored the highest revised player rating, however his 3 MotM rewards could be the result of being the clear standout player of an otherwise average team. Vlahovic seems like the ‘child’ of Nunez and Toney here (apologies for the blasphemy) as he had good scores on all aspects (apart from other contribution), but he excelled in neither of them.
I think these were the strong picks. The next 3 are clearly below the middle line. Lacazette leads the bottom half. He had the third highest corrected player ratings and the best score in other contributions, but the constant loss of market value and his age disqualified him from the most desirable strikers. Gouiri follows him closely; his conversion rate, chance quality and goal contribution alone would make him a top target, but even those figures were a slight step back from his crazy performance last season, and the lack of international call-up also had its mark on his market value, thus eventually in my striker comparison model. Finally, Richarlison concludes this trio, who might be a high flyer in the World Cup, but his domestic performance was less than impressive. In his defense, he was often used as a substitute – resulting in a big dent in his ratings – and was predominantly deployed as a winger, so the comparison in his case is indeed a bit flawed.
Finally we have the last 3, where ‘dodging the bullet’ might not be an overstatement. Abraham couldn’t live up to the expectations from last year, missing easy chances, and the inevitable correction of his inflated value didn’t help either. Scamacca started as a backup forward to deputize Antonio, furthermore West Ham is yet to exploit the aerial threat Gianluca poses. Finally, the unmitigated disaster was Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who started the year with a nasty injury, but couldn’t Salvage Everton’s catastrophic season when started to play regularly. He simply doesn’t belong to the top.
I didn’t take the transfer fees into account, as with the CL and silverware ambitions Arsenal doesn’t need a ‘good enough for the price’ type of striker, but a true world class – as long as we could actually afford the price and salary. However, taking the price into consideration would only make Jesus the undisputed winner here, as Nunez and Isak went for a considerably higher fee (not mentioning Vlahovic, or Napoli’s expected fee for Osimhen), and I doubt Toney would have changed club for less than 50M. Apart from Haaland, Gabi is the clear winner of the striker signing category.
Do you agree? Please don’t hesitate to challenge my method of comparison, and share your thought in comments. If you are interested, I can add players to the list (whom I might have forgotten).
Finally, do you think such data-driven comparison for other positions would add value? If so, I can do similar analysis on LBs and CBs to see how did Zinchenko and Saliba performed against other defenders. Or even apply the same approach to DM/CMs and wingers to see who are the most promising candidates in the rumor mill for our next wave of reinforcements.
People online and on Twitter have been being negative on Vieira. I’ve been arguing that a 2 month injury and lack of preseason before joining a much harder league really would hold him back a bit. Add to that the difficulty of learning Artetas system (maybe the most complicated in the world right now), would be a big factor as well.
I said that even with all that, he still has a nose for creating and scoring goals, and still in his poorer games, he is always close to causing a goal from a beautiful play, or from popping up in the perfect place at the right time to get a shot off.
Those are instincts that can’t be coached.
They also talk about him being lightweight, but I see him as a slippery character, a little bit like Ozil who can squirt away from opponents trying to close him down or tackle.
You’ll see that if you find the highlights from last year’s champions league games against Liverpool and other big clubs.
It impressed Klopp enough that they purchased the right of first refusal if he was going to be sold. Luckily we came in after pool just spent loads of money on Diaz and Nunez, so they had to let him go. Smart business on that timing and opportunity from Edu.
The game against Wolves is an example of his value. Called into the game unexpectedly early when the first 11 was underperforming in the first half. Eventually he found his moment of time and place for an assist. The way he controlled the ball until the perfect time, luring the keeper towards him, then chipping it over him. So well done that if Ødegaard hadn’t got to it, Saka would have definitely put it in.
He created 2 chances with one ball.
It’s worth noting that the game was completely in doubt at that time, even though it ended up a comfortable win.
I think Vieira will have many more game changing moments for Arsenal in the future.
Bergkampesque 