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A team to nettle (25/02/23) – Leicester City game preview

I’m sure you know the feeling when there is a poor team – either of squad depth or just a weak run of form – but they regularly manage to screw us. As if they were some kind of nemesis or Achilles-tendon to us. Well, this game is not about them. It’s exactly the other way around.

I’m talking about Leicester City. Saying that they are a decent team would be an understatement. And I’m not merely referring to their recent silverware, but even as a mid-table team they have a tendency to beat top-6 clubs. Yet they keep struggling against us. We came up victorious in each of our last 4 games (leading at half time every time), winning 5 out of the 6 games since 2020. And apart from last year’s 4:2,we haven’t conceded more than 1, often even keeping a clean sheet.

Before analyzing their squad and style, let me explain you why I admire them, as I really do. It doesn’t happen to me very often,but I there is a lot to appreciate about them.

• First, they make many smart investments. They don’t spend big – had only a single signing above 35M – yet they could attract top talent.
• They have a very capable scouting network. They identify future stars in an early stage of their development, so they can sign them for next to nothing (Mahrez: 500k, Schmeichel: 1.7M, Vardy: 1,2M)
• Even when they spend big(ger), there is often a huge development potential to that player (Kante: 9M -> 100M, Ndidi: 18M -> 60M, Maddison 25M -> 60M, Söyüncü: 8M -> 45M, etc.)
• They know they cannot keep all their best and highest performing players, but they don’t sell them all and at the same time. There is a conscious sales and succession planning at the club.
• Even when they sell their talisman players, they do it at a very high price – well above their market value. (Maguire: 87M, Fofana: 80M, Mahrez: 68M, Chilwell: 50M, Drinkwater 38M)
• While they scout from all over Europe, they have built a formidable contingent of Belgian players that can support each others’ induction process. Tielemans, Praet, Castagne and Faes are a quartette of fine footballers.
• They have a historically strong academy (currently struggling both U21 and U18 level) that provide gems to the first team like Harvey Barnes, Ben Chilwell, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and others.
• This also means that they give opportunities to youngsters from their own academy like Daniel Iversen and Luke Thomas.
• Leicester are loyal to their players, they don’t replace the squad every 3-4 years. Vardy is with them since 2012, Amartey, Mendy and Ndidi are also part of the team for 6-7 years.
• They are loyal to their managers, too. Apart from the unsuccessful stint of Craig Shakespeare they gave plenty of games and opportunities to their recent coaches/managers in the last 13 years: Eriksson, Pearson, Ranieri, Puel and Rodgers all had their chances for at least a season and a half, which cannot be said of Chelsea or Manchester United.

With all that said, there is strong probability that we will defeat them at the King Power Stadium in a few hours. They seldom make unwise purchases, but putting the Perez craziness aside they managed to purchase Danny Ward for almost 6 times his market value. He was a decent backup to Kasper Schmeichel, but as the main goalkeeper he is the worst in the UK and possibly in the top 5 leagues. For my fellow nerds: Leicester has the the second lowest (worst) xGA-goals stat  at -4.3 (interpret: they conceded 41 goals although the quality of the chances created by the opponents would only amount to 36.7), indicating a very poor goalkeeper, as we could see in the second round at the Emirates back in August. Their attacking department is compensating it by having the highest goals – xG stat in the entire PL, but I don’t think that will be enough today.

We should focus our defensive efforts mostly on Maddison. He is a great player and in a good form. A combination that doesn’t apply to anybody else in East Midlands at this point. Vardy has an outstanding scoring record against Arsenal (11 – more than any other club), but he hasn’t scored since October – his only goal this season – and was only a substitute in their last 3 games. Barnes had some decent games against Brighton, Villa and Tottenham, but he is probably not yet at the level to decide a game of such magnitude. The sad truth is that Leicester hasn’t won a game against the team sitting on the top of the table since 1998 (drawing 2 and losing 16 times). Their previously mentioned winning streak was (unfortunately) ended by Manchester United in the last round, so they are exactly in the opposite situation as Arsenal, as we have just returned to our winning ways after a 3-round detour.

Arteta met Rodgers 7 times already – only against Pep and Klopp did he try his best more – and the 5 wins plus a draw (2.29 points per game on average) is pretty convincing to me. As does our 11 goals scored in the last 4 encounters against the Foxes. We scored 4 goals (with an xG of 2.86) in the last round at Villa Park, so I predict an away win by 0:3 today. Yes, we are playing away from home, but behind only Southampton is Leicester City the least fearsome hosts in the PL, picking up only 12 points (W3. D3, L5) in 11 games.

I will not predict our line-up, even though Mikel might face some decisions at LB, LW and DM positions. Some fans even foresee Trossard starting at LW and Martinelli up front at the expense of Nketiah. However I am willing to take the chance and predict Eddie starting and scoring. As the return (second coming) of Jesus is near, he has to start reminding Arteta and the fans of his qualities if he doesn’t want to stay the substitute but promote himself to competitor.

Let’s have a great game and bring home all the points. COYG!

By Peter Barany

Big Title Battle

Canons Roar Gooners Galore

ARSEnal Victor!

Fine fellow BKers. I am saying it all through a haiku today. You know the lineup. The boys know what to do.

Have a go at a haiku yourself. The rules are simple: three lines total, five syllables in the first and third lines, and seven syllables in the second line.

Come on You Rip Roaring Gunners.

TA.

Which team is more in-form? (11/02/23) – Brentford game preview

Two weeks ago we were the most in-form team in England, and probably in Europe as well (competing with Barca and Napoli). Since the 22^nd of January we lost both competitive games, our – kind-of-expected away FA Cup fixture in the Etihad against a strong but in-poor-form Manchester City – and our 2^nd league defeat in Goodison Park against a generally terrible, but motivated-by-a-new-manager Everton. So we are in a hole right now, and what makes it even worse, we are facing this season’s (other) surprise team Brentford, making our rebound task even more challenging.

There are some mitigating circumstances, though. All losses this season came on the road, and we will host the Bees in the Emirates. In home PL games Arsenal are undefeated, in fact even better: winning 8 and drawing once. And we scored 25 goals in those 9 games (the 0:0 against Newcastle included), which could indicate 2-3 goals tomorrow. Even if we offset that with not finding the back of the net in our last 2 games, that could still be considered positive.

Unfortunately, Brentford could be equipped to withstand that: they have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches, as they are undefeated in their last 9, furthermore Brentford have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 league games. So this lesser known London derby could be an exciting, rich in goals game between two creative teams (prediction I: 3:2 victory), or a somewhat boring encounter between two cautious teams that cannot afford to lose on Saturday (prediction II: 0:0).

The team news are somewhat symmetric: Brentford will miss their Swedish giant Pontus Jansson, but their 2 other injured fringe players may appear on the bench (Onyeka & Baptiste). Arsenal has also only long term absents: Jesus and Mohamed – I’m so sorry, but that is just plain funny to write – but both Nelson and Smith-Rowe have returned to training, and their withdrawal from the match-day squad facing Everton was more of a precautionary measure.

We haven’t faced Brentford many times, and I can’t remember a single draw. Out of our last 4 encounters Arsenal won 3 and lost only 1, but that was the painful defeat in the opening game of the PL 21/22 season.

Let us see the opposition. Unlike Brighton – another surprise team from the beginning of the alphabet – they don’t sell their best players (since being promoted to the Premier League), but they don’t spend big on reinforcements either.

Ivan Toney is in fine form. He had a marvelous run in November-December when he scored 6 and assisted 1 in the course of only five games. He hasn’t scored since mid-January, but received good ratings from WhoScored nonetheless. Their other in-form player is their #1 David Raya, who is on fire in the last 3 months. The surprisingly short goalkeeper – currently on the brink of the Spanish squad, with several call-ups and 2 international starts under his belt – has excellent reflexes, and is a seasoned distributor of long balls. He was rumored to join us at some point, but it didn’t happen.

By the way, Arsenal affiliations: they have Aaron Hickey in their ranks who was also on the verge of joining us, and he made quite a good impact on the Bees, but had a nasty injury since. And former academy starlet Josh DaSilva is their first-team regular – I expect him to start tomorrow.

Brentford started the season in 4-3-3, but switched to 3-5-2 in September. Actually, they tested this formation against us – and losing by 0:3 is not the greatest reference – but they perfected it in the subsequent months, and defeated Manchestre City and West Ham on the road as well as Liverpool and Bournemouth at home. So my money is on them fielding a back 3 and 2 attackers on Saturday. Master signing from Burnley experienced Ben Mee (1.80) and Pinnock (1.94) will likely start, and I expect Odegaard’s compatriot Ajer to play RCB. The front 2 are obvious: Toney is the main threat, while Mbeumo – after being nominated the worst attacker of the PL last season – starting to make a name for himself.

The game will probably be decided in the middle of the park, where Partey, Xhaka and half Odegaard will likely face DaSilva as well as Danish duo Mathias Jensen and Christian Norgaard, supported by defensive wingbacks Rico Henry and Mads Roerslev Rasmussen – making Brentford the half-equivalent of Wolves but being fixated on Denmark instead of Portugal. Maybe we’ll se Hickey for a while to decide who is the better left back in London (If you are interested in the topic, I have a full research on left backs this season, which will culminate in a major surprise – at least it was for me, but no spoilers today).

Since Brentford will not deploy wingers (recent signings Lewis-Potter and Damsgaard – guess where he is from – are not burning in operational temperature yet), so our fullbacks will have different defensive duties than in previous games, but they will be heavily involved in building attacks, as we’ll need all the support we can get against 6-8 defensive minded players. Therefore I would start Tomiyasu ahead of White, yet I don’t expect Arteta to make a single change from his proven XI. Meaning we’ll start in the familiar 4-2-3-1, with all this year’s (available) signings – apart from Zinchenko – sitting on the bench.

What Arsenal needs to be careful about is Brentford being awarded the third highest number of penalties (5, all scored, making them the team with the most penalty goals), while we are joint bottom with a single kick from the spot. Assuming that VAR denies any favours from the officials, our boys should avoid risky situations.

I expect our boys to be desperate to demonstrate the Everton defeat was just a fluke and bouncing back from setbacks is crucially important for any team chasing the title. Yet Brentford will be a significant obstacle, which we must overcome nevertheless.

By Peter Barany.

About half way through the season, it is a good moment to have a look at Arsenal and our competitors’ home and away form. It makes some interesting reading!

Home Form:

Arsenal have only played nine times at home but have a near perfect run with eight wins and that one draw against the Oily Barcodes: a total of 25 points. Yet we are second in the ‘PL home table’ as Man City have collected 28 points, but they did so whilst playing two more games. They lost and drew once, scored a whopping 38 goals but also conceded 12 goals in the process (just over one goal a game). The only other team not to have lost at home are the Barcodes. Arsenal have scored 25 times at home and conceded ten goals. Our home form has been great and this should continue to play a big factor in the title race. We scored the second most goals at home with Brentford and Liverpool in third (23 goals). Manchester and Newcastle conceded the least PL goals at home this season: just six (half that of Man City).

Away Form:

Where Arsenal have been second to none is in our away games. Despite our sorry and deserved loss at Goodison Park, Arsenal are doing way better than all other teams on our travels. We played 11 times away, won 8, lost 2 and drew 1 game. This gives us a total points of 25. Second, believe it or not, are the Spudskins with 18 points (11 games). Third are Newcastle, Man City, Brighton and Man United, all with just 17 points from 10 games. Arsenal are also are third best in scoring in away games with 20 goals, Spuds have 19 goals, Newcastle, ManU and Citeh have all scored 15 goals. Quite a surprise, Leicester and Brighton have scored most goals away from home with 21 goals, but the Seagulls have played a game less, so actually have the highest goals per game ratio. Arsenal’s secret is that we have been extremely tight defensively with just seven goals conceded. Only the Barcodes did better with just six goals (but they played a game less away). Citeh only conceded nine goals away but all other competitors are well into double figures already. Arsenal’s Away Goal Difference is an impressive +13, Newcastle are next with +9, and Citeh are are third with a meager +6.

So both home and away forms are pretty impressive, and especially away Arsenal are the bee’s knees. I am glad that we have two more homes games to play (10 in total against 8 more away games), though. The next two games v Brentford and Citeh will be at home and we really need the home crowd to be the 12th man of the team. It is also fair to say that we will face some really tough away opponents in our eight remaining games: Villa and Leicester are seldom or never easy, Fulham will give us a fight, Liverpool, Man City and West Ham will all be tough, and so will be Newcastle and possibly Nottingham Forest if they are fighting for survival at the end of the season. So let’s hope our away form will stay very strong.

We are of course just over half way and there really is all to play for. Great job until now but, on the basis of One Game at a Time (OGAAT), let’s approach every game as a cup final and fight for each and every point.

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!!!!!!!!!!

By TotalArsenal.

Eight short observations from Everton 1-0 Arsenal:

1. We didn’t win the battle in midfield but we didn’t lose it either. Partey seemed tired after 30 minutes and the Ode looked under the weather, and their substitutions were no real surprise.
2. Still the system and tactics worked but the Toffees played at 120% of their ability and our players were almost all below par. Passes and first touches were rushed and sloppy, fifty-fifty balls were lost more than won and we also didn’t have our usual intensity in our play.
3. We needed to wake up and we somehow couldn’t. I have witnessed this before with Arsenal at Goodison Park during early Saturday kick off. We have one soon away to Villa, so let’s prepare better for that game. But if Partey and Ode were playing not feeling 100% and the home team have had a shot in the arm through new manager Dyche, then it can be hard. I don’t think many clubs would have taken three points of Everton yesterday.
4. When we attack we have three main weapons. The left flank of Martinelli, the right flank of Saka and the central channel of Eddie and Ode/Granit. Opposition teams know this of course and try to stop us with crowding the wings out. We deal with this very well usually by shifting the play quickly to where there is space. Ode and Xhaka are excellent at this usually but both wer a bit slow. Everton, it should be said, also did a good job in keeping the pitch small and not allowing us much time on the ball.
5. Our Full Backs were also underwhelming with sloppy passes and not offering as much thrust as usual. The triangles on the left and right lacked energy, creativity and precision, and all above mentioned factors played a role in this. But our full backs can do much better.
6. The subs did OK, not more and certainly not less. They couldn’t make the difference but we also didn’t drop our level after they came on.
7. I rate Eddie highly and he is doing a very good job for us. But this was a game for Gab Jesus and I missed him. Jesus’ mobility and dribbling skills, his coming deep into midfield and then turn on his axis would have helped a lot with cracking those defensive lines of Everton.
8. I think the team tried hard to get something from the game and I can imagine that Arteta was proud of his players. It was not to be and Everton deserved the precious three points. We’ll learn from this defeat and can now look forward to two home games. Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners.

By TotalArsenal

An early kickoff today at cosy Goodison Park and a big test for the boys. There will be a Dyche of Toffees in front of the Everton goal and the combination of a new manager, a raucous crowd and a nothing to lose attitude could turn this into a huge scrap.

I still remember travelling from Norwich to Liverpool for the early Saturday kick off and losing by an ugly 1-0, best part of twenty years ago. Back then we were also the big favourites. I also remember last season’s encounter at Goodison Park, one of the worst games under Arteta.

Early away kick offs can be bruised babana skins, and I hope the boys will be 100% focused and hungry for today’s first out of 19 battles for the title.

Emile is out and I hope he will be back soon. Same goes for Mo. Partey has a rib issue but will probably play, although Mikel remains circumspect about this. Will we see Jorginho in the famous shirt for the first time?

Furthermore, will Trossard get a start ahead of Martinelli? I doubt it but love to see more of him today.

Lineup

Rams

Ben, Sal, Gab, Zinch

Thom/Jorg-Granit

Buk, Ode, Mar/Lean

Edie, Eddie, Edie

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!!!!

By TotalArsenal

Before we focus on our next OGAAT battle with Everton, let’s talk about Folarin Balogun and what his return to the Home of Football next season could mean.

Jesus has already proven to be a great Arsenal CF, Eddie is doing a fabulous job right now and Balogun is making all the baguettes stand up with excitement in la douce France this season. We are blessed with three very fine CFs, and when were we last able to say this?

Having watched Folarin a few times on TV now, it’s not a fluke that he is the league’s topscorer. He is fluid and works the defence hard, he has a great ‘nose for a goal’ as the Dutch say (he sniffs chances) and he knows no nerves in front of goal. He can, be target man, play with his back towards goal and loves to come deep too! If he can do this with relatively limited service in the Stade Reims team, just imagine what it could be like when he plays with the likes of Ode, Xhaka and Saka around him!!

Surely, we cannot keep all three of our CFs happy next season if we can only play one at a time? And with Trossard in the team, we cannot simply say we’ll play Jesus on the left and one of Eddie or Balogun through the middle in most of our games.

We could say we effectively have four CFs, two who can play on the left and two who can play on the right. Could we therefore opt for two CFs next season, say in a 3-4-1-2?

Something like this:

Ramsdale

White-Saliba-Gab

Saka-Part-Xhaka-Zinch

Ode

Eddie-Jesus

Or

Turner

Tomi-Rob-Kiwi

Nelson-Jorginho-Zinch-Tiern

ESR

Balogun-Trossard

Mix and match as per your preferences. I don’t know about you but I quite like this set up for next season. There is also Martinelli and possibly Rice to squeeze into these lineups.

What do you think?

By TotalArsenal

Outside my kitchen window I can see, in the distance, two huge tower cranes operating over a large building project. After another successful transfer window I cannot help thinking of Mikel and Edu being the tower crane operators of our beloved Arsenal. They certainly operate with a great overview whilst having their feet firmly on the ground. They could see the (potential) gaps in our team and knew how to deal with them. I applaud them for the sensibility.

We needed cover for Big Gab and they found a left-footed CB in Kiwior. We needed extra, proven (ideally PL) goal scoring power and Trossard, who can play in a number of attacking roles, can just hit the ground running. An injury to either Ode or Partey would hurt our title chase significantly, so signing Jorginho, who is versatile, experienced and will feel at home among all our Brazilians, is a fine insurance policy by Mikel and Edu. Yes, they were after younger versions initially but their targets were hard to get in the mid-season transfer window. With a much coveted league title at stake Arsenal simply had to act, and we certainly have strengthened defence, midfield and attack with these three signings.

The Boehly boy of the Chavs reminds me of an old neighbour when I was still a boy. They were better off than my family but had no taste. Every time I got a new outside toy or an item of clothing, they would not waste any time before they got it as well, but better, more expensive and of course more showy. The Chavs have been splashing the money with huge desperation to stop the slippery slide into mediocrity. Boehly’s new toy is not giving him any joy so out comes to wallet and splash goes the cash. I wonder how much Potter was involved in all these purchases and how much of a plan there is… other then let’s buy what Arsenal want to buy; let’s snatch it away from them.

So now we have 19 PL battles to go and the next one up is against the Toffees. We are going to count down from now on with OGAAT in mind, and every victory will be celebrated like a cup final. This is a special season. Nobody, absolutely nobody, saw this coming. Every footie pundit had us outside the top-three, many outside the top-four. Let’s get back in the saddle BKers: 19 fences in front of us. Yee-Haw!!

And let’s finish this season as the wonderful Antonin Dvorak does in his Carnival Overture Op.92!

Come On You Rip Roaring Gunners!

By TA

A day and a half to go before the transfer window shuts, and what will happen between now and then?

The signing of Trossard was just what we needed upfront. We saw on Friday that young Vieira is not first team material as yet, and with Emile and Ryan both so often injured, Leandro is that much needed January shot in the arms.

Kiwior seems good business too. A left footed CB to cover for Big Gab is Chopin to my ears.

What we also learned on Friday is our over-dependency on Partey and the threat to the season Elneny’s injury is causing. Sambi did not get the nod in our starting eleven and when he came on he offered little. As the whole team were playing with the handbrake on, I don’t feel we should judge his cameo too harshly, but it’s clear that we need to add steel in midfield before 1 February.

It’s such a shame Maitland-Niles just didn’t push himself into our first team, or indeed our best 18. The Partey role could have been ideal for him, but he has not made the grade. It’s not a position for an academy player, unless, like AMN, they have had a considerable time in the team already. AMN, Willock and maybe ESR should have become the Partey backup, but Mikel has to go to market instead.

Is Caicedo for an awful lot of money the answer? It looks like Brighton don’t want to let him go and I don’t blame them. I also have not seen enough of him to say whether he will be an instant success.

We need to do something, though. Partey is likely to get injured at some point and the gap could jeopardise our Leicester-esque chance to win the title this time round.

I know I am not the only one who believes Ben White could play well in the Partey position. Tomiyasu, Cedric and Holding are excellent cover for his current position. White reads the game well, is a decent passer of the ball, a good eye for interceptions and blocks and a good, calm communicator. The team love and trust him. Why not give it a try?

Of course if Mikel and Edu can do some excellent business before Wednesday then I will not be complaining. But we need a plan B(en)..

What do you think?

By TotalArsenal

Man City v Arsenal in the Forever Arsenal(‘s) Cup

My favourite Art Historian Kenneth Clarke once said that ‘Great men have a curious way of appearing in complementary pairs, there to keep human faculties in balance’. He was, as an example, speaking about the great ‘artists’ of the 18th century: George Frederic Handel and Johan Sebastian Bach. There is no doubt that Ferguson and Wenger needed each other to push themselves to the very best they could be; and it is clear that Klopp and Guardialo are similar ‘complementary pairs’.

But the big pair we will focus on for this game is the one of master and apprentice: Pep and Mikel. Nothing is more beneficial to a young career than being surrounded by a master or two. Mikel soaked it all up at Pep’s Citeh and it may well be that the two passionate Spaniards will become the two PL maestros for the current decade. Early days of course, and Klopp and possibly Ten Hag may have something to say about it too.

Guardiola is twelve years the senior of Arteta and it was a of course a very good choice by the former to ask Mikel to join him as soon as his playing career was over. Mikel’s English is much better (something that badly led down his Spanish Arsenal predecessor) and his focus on adherence to hard values and total football principles is much more Van Gaal-like than Cruijff and Wenger-like. Guardiola – more Cruijff or Wenger-like than Van Gaal-like – seems a bit more relaxed and philosophical these days; and there is certainly a bit of a calm master about him. I don’t like saying it but I have a lot of respect for the MC manager and the strategic decision making of the club’s owners.

It is ridiculous that we have played only half of our PL games and it is almost February. Our gap of five points plus a game in hand is surreal too. But tonight we are fighting Man City for a place in the next round of the FA Cup. It’s on ITV so a larger TV audience than usual will look forward to a great battle of the titans. Although Arsenal are of course the most successful FA Cup team in history, and we have to defend this honour every season, I wonder whether Arteta can afford to put out our strongest team with no hand-breaks on. The serious-looking Elneny injury is a significant setback to the team. Partey is of course key in any battle with MC but with MO injured we really are in a precarious situation. I don’t think we can risk Thomas tonight. So for me it is Lokonga time: put him in a strong team and show us what he is capable of. Now or maybe never, Sambi. Other than that I think we should start with many of the usual 11, with subs a bit earlier than usual. It is a big game and it never seems to work in these games to field a watered down starting eleven. We want to play well and put up a fight; there is more at stake here than reaching the next round in the FA Cup.

My Preferred Line-Up:

Ramsdale

Tomi-Saliba-Gab-Tierney

Sambi-Xhaka

Saka-Ode-Martinelli

Eddie

MC will push us back so Granit will sit deeper than usual which will be a good support to Sambi. Tomi and Tierney will be chomping at the bit for this one, and after 60 minutes or so we can bring on the likes of Zinchenko, White and Trossard, or even Partey to see out the game.

Alternatively, we can go wild and go with LeGall’s proposed starting 11:

Turner
Tomiyasu-Holding-Kiwior-Tierney

White-Zinchenko
Trossard-Vieira-Martinelli

Nketiah

What do you say fine fellow Gooners?!

By TotalArsenal.