Should Arsenal have offered £42m for Suarez – will lessons be learned?

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Looking back on the season at this point at the beginning of March, one can say that there have been positive signs in terms of us being competitive with Manchester City and Chelsea, two clubs backed by enormously wealthy owners. Some say that this was a season of opportunity with management of Chelsea and both Manchester clubs in transition, but at this point it could also be said that we could have been standing in a much worse position at this juncture, not least taking into account the mood of the club after our season opening loss at home to Aston Villa. The 2013/14 season as a whole is now very much in the balance following the disappointing away loss to Stoke, but we still have a decent shot at a trophy, most likely the FA Cup, with the Premier League title still an outside shot.

Over the weekend we have had a revelation courtesy of Liverpool’s club owner, John Henry, who said this in a filmed panel discussion at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference:

“Luis Suarez is the top scorer in the English Premier League which is arguably the top soccer league in the world”

“And he had a buy-out clause – I don’t know what degree I should go into this – but he had a buy-out clause of £40million – more than 60 million (US) dollars. So Arsenal, one of our prime rivals this year … they offered £40million and one pound for him and triggered his buy-out clause.”

“But what we’ve found over the years is that contracts don’t seem to mean a lot in England – actually not in England, in world football. It doesn’t matter how long a player’s contract is, he can decide he’s leaving.”

It is very rare for us fans to know details of the ins and outs of backroom dealings, but by John Henry being so clear in his own words we now have some explicit clarity with regards to the Luis Suarez transfer saga last summer.

One can only imagine where we would be placed at this point in the season if we had pulled off the signing of Suarez. It is largely water under the bridge now but I do think the rare clarity of information we have received courtesy of John Henry enables a revisit of what likely happened from our side, as a club, in attempting to pull off the Suarez signing, but ultimately failing. The most important thing is that there are lessons to be learned, and perhaps justifiable calls for some accountability.

Obviously at some point last summer we had been tipped off about a £40m release clause in Suarez’s contract, most likely by Pere Guardiola, his agent. One would suggest timing linked with a rather suspect flurry of betting activity in Spain, reported in various media sources in early July of that summer. The fact that we were tipped off indicates that Suarez was at that time very interested in a move to Arsenal. Based on this information our club proceeded to the infamous £40m + £1 bid which we rightly expected would trigger the release clause. However, John Henry refused to cooperate and Liverpool used the media to embarrass us regarding the nature of the bid, and by doing so the suits in executive offices of our club (our executive management) were instantly rocked back onto their heels; a position from which they never recovered in regaining an upper hand.

Refusing to allow a player to proceed to negotiate personal terms with a club that has triggered a release clause is pretty unprecedented. John Henry has boasted that words in Suarez’s contract counted for little, but I take this as bluster. Liverpool would have been left wide open to pressure, be it from the PFA, the FA, UEFA, FIFA, or even a combination of these bodies because challenging the whole framework of contracts is not something that authorities can readily accept, as it would ultimately risk chaos in the professional sport as a whole, in England, and possibly globally. One has to ask, when it was clear at the time that Luis Suarez very much wanted to join Arsenal for Champions League football, why pressure, with or without legal recourse, was not exerted on LFC. I will explain why it probably was not, at least not to any significant level.

For all we know, there could have been some action behind the scenes, at least a lot of discussions amongst executive management at Arsenal as to potential strategies of how to outmaneuver Liverpool. However, this tracks back to our bid of £40m + £1. The nature of this bid was an overt admission that we had been tipped off on Suarez’s release clause, and by the letter of the law of professional football such tip offs are illegal. Although technically illegal, it is pretty widely known within the football community that players’ agents talk with clubs and divulge contract details, and such communications reside in a gray area which is largely tolerated. Murky gray area notwithstanding, there was no way that we could deny that we had been tipped off regarding Suarez’s release clause and that very likely put our executive management in a bit of a legal straightjacket.

In hindsight, although we know that any money included in a bid over and above a release clause is perhaps unnecessary money spent, if we had put in a bid of £42m there is no way that it could have been definitively proven by Liverpool that we had put in a bid for Suarez after gaining inside information. A bid of £42m in all likelihood would have secured the signing of Suarez in my humble opinion. Arsenal’s backroom were outfoxed by Liverpool’s backroom despite having a strong upper hand initially because of poor strategic thinking that allowed an opportunity to slip through our fingers. Remember Arsenal did not reveal the +£1 bid, that was John Henry and Liverpool, in a very high profile manner, i.e. they used the media to outfox us.

I wanted to share this revisiting of the Suarez transfer saga last summer, because it is very rare that fans know all the ins and outs of transfer dealings; but in this case, we have John Henry in his own words as firm evidence. The opportunity for signing Suarez has in all likelihood come and gone. While we hope that the suits in our executive offices have reflected on how they were likely outfoxed, I believe it is right for fans to have confidence that indeed lessons are being learned moving forwards. We should demand some accountability, so that improvements can be built into our overall approach, and perhaps a review and reorganisation of individual staff responsibilities. Doing so can only help, in terms of future transfer dealings.

So where should accountability lie?

Personally I do not lay any blame with Arsène Wenger. Where we fell short in the Luis Suarez saga was in poor strategic thinking, and although the football manager may play a role, responsibility for such strategic thinking should lie within a core team within the club’s executive management. If the football manager overtly oversaw the process then that is not necessarily his fault; he is an employee of the club and those higher up in the club’s structure should understand his limitations and recognise the need to assert themselves more. Ultimately in this case, I believe we have clarity that points us to our Chief Executive, i.e. Ivan Gazidis (IG). One could perhaps consider Dick Law, but IG should have been in the loop of details every step of the way. If IG wasn’t, one has to question his oversight as Chief Executive. One could perhaps consider Stan Kroenke, but I don’t believe Kroenke should be expected to know every detail; he employs IG and should trust him to perform competently with a degree of autonomy in the lofty, well paid, position of Chief Executive.

To make it clear, I am not asking for IG to be sacked. Indeed, one can point to much good that he has done for the club in enhancing commercial revenues. Perhaps what is needed is a little restructuring of our executive management with someone with ultimate responsibility for transfer dealings, at an organisational level in between IG and Dick Law. Many clubs nowadays employ a Director of Football, but I do not recommend one. I prefer a football manager to have full responsibility for players he wants to sign because he has to manage those players. A person in between IG and Dick Law wouldn’t be a Director of Football; indeed, he would be more like David Dein. Last summer we hired Chips Keswick as Chairman, as successor to Peter Hill Wood. I do not know what Chips Keswick exactly does, but perhaps we can question this hire and whether we should have brought back David Dein (or someone similar to David Dein) at that juncture. Nevertheless, there is room for IG, Chips Keswick (as successor to PHW), as well as a David Dein. This would take any ambiguity of transfer dealing oversight largely away from IG, so that he can focus largely on continuing to grow commercial revenues.

On a side note, obviously John Henry felt free to divulge details at this juncture because Liverpool are in a good position in the Premier League table, Luis Suarez appears fully satisfied there now, and they are in a good position to secure Champions League football for next season. John Henry had an up close and personal view of effectiveness of our executive management in transfer dealings last summer, outsmarting them in the process – one could argue very easily. He used the media very well in going so public with our £40m + £1 bid, perhaps with a level of faux outrage.

Ultimately, he made our executive management look like a bunch of amateurs, and in saying what he did in a filmed panel discussion at MIT over the weekend it was the equivalent of him smoking one of his cigars while enjoying how he got one over on Arsenal Football Club. We should perhaps see the glass half full and draw on this as motivation as fans to demand from the club’s executive management some transparency of lessons learned and associated adjustments, in line with my humble suggestions, or otherwise.

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Gazidis, Kroenke, Law, Wenger: who is to blame?

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I don’t know about you fine fellow Gooners, but I have been pinching myself occasionally during the last few days: A ‘wake me up please from this rotten nightmare’ sort of pinch. Unwisely, many Gooners including me, consciously or subconsciously, tend to wish away the summer time in order for proper footie to start again as soon as possible. And when the moment finally arrives, we want to be filled with (very often unrealistic) hope to win silverware again: we like to see a strong squad, a good pre-season, a nice new shirt, and a few new players we can get really excited about.

Whilst travelling through Norwich on Saturday, I was amazed by the number of Canaries wearing a nr.9 ‘Van Wolfswinkel’ shirt in town. I counted seven in just five minutes: the Norwich new record signing has become the embodiment of hope for the Canaries (and boy, did he deliver for them this weekend).

It made me mad at Gazidis, Kroenke and Wenger for seemingly not understanding/wanting to understand the very basic nature of football and its supporters, especially after promising so much at the start of the Torture Window.

Arsenal football club were in great position a few months ago: the team fought back to finish in the top-four, a strong core-team of young and experienced players was coming together, the main competition was going through major change, and we did not have to sell any of our star players but would be able to add to our squad with considerable funds. Strategically, Arsenal were in a superb position to make significant steps towards breaking into the very top of the PL again.

Three months later: no core players have been sold (as yet) but also nobody was bought, and the squad is depleted – in terms of numbers, and possibly, morale – after suffering a number of bad to very bad injuries during pre-season; and seeing no quality additions will also not have helped. We also lost a game, but that can happen and the season is long; although, the timing of it is very painful.

Rather than having every reason for real optimism for the new season, the club finds itself in considerable turmoil right now: a squad lacking strength in depth (no midfielders who can defend, not many defenders left for example) and not enough quality players who can make a real and sustained difference; and a disgruntled fan base who feel let down and to some extent manipulated by the BoD.

The management of the club have, until now, over promised and totally under delivered, and only a small miracle of quality transfer dealings could possibly turn the situation round again.

The mood could easily have been so different, and that’s what is so frustrating.

Most supporters wanted a quality addition in all four lines: GK, defence, midfield and attack. An experienced back-up goalkeeper, or for some the new nr.1, was high on the list, but most of us really wanted Arsene to finally get a quality DM who could play a bit of footie as well. Many of us also felt that we needed either a quality ‘third or fourth’ CB, or if Sagna was to be moved into central defence, an experienced RB. Many of us also believed we needed to add more fire power to our attack, and it appears that the club have been trying to achieve the latter as their first priority.

So what went wrong – who is to blame?

The problem is that despite the media’s attempt to desperately fill in the holes, we lack tangible knowledge of what has really happened in terms of transfer dealings this summer. It is one big, black box for us. We know the input: £70m to spend; we know the output: no players signed; but we do not know the throughput, other than the club making a few bids for players during the summer – and very little has actually been confirmed by the club on any of these bids.

But as supporters we can only be understanding for so long and the facts of the matter are there have not been any signings, and the season has started already.

So why did the club not spend the money and sign players this summer, and why did Gazidis come out so noticeably with his statement that we can compete with the best and have lots of money to burn in the process?

It did not seem very clever to be so public about it at the time, other than perhaps an attempt to convince top player prospects that the club is entering a new era, AND/OR to put some pressure on Wenger to buy a different calibre of player this time round. Some will argue he did it to get supporters to renew their season tickets, but I reckon that is far too cynical and Gazidis is too clever a man to underestimate the incredible damage this could do to the club long-term.

No, something is not right here. Of course, each and every failed attempt to sign up a new player could be down to causes beyond the control of the club: other clubs not prepared to sell (yet) or simply wanting unacceptably high sums of money; players not wanting to come or too many contractual complications, etc.

But usually money talks and as we have seen many times with clubs like Liverpool, Man City etc, if you are prepared to pay the right price, AND individual packages, quality players will come. Key in all of this is not to set your sight too high but go for realistic targets.

Despite having considerable funds, the club will still negotiate hard to get their targets for the ‘right’ price; but the right price in football is very hard to determine as there is lots of (oil) money about to constantly inflate the prices and undermine our negotiations, and this could be the main reason for missing out on all our apparent prospects until now.

Some have argued that the club is simply not negotiating astute enough; that we are dithering too much. If so, who is to blame for this: the negotiators, the manager, the final decision makers (Gazidis, Kroenke?). We just don’t know, and as long as we don’t, we have to blame them all, including Arsene Wenger.

It could well be that the management believed they could survive till the end of the transfer window with the existing squad and bring in players right at the end if need be, when negotiating can be a lot easier with those clubs who are desperate to sell to make ends meet. But this would always have been a very risky strategy, and losing on Saturday, combined with the depletion of our first team squad, have left the club in an embarrassing predicament right now.

Whatever the reasons, the facts are the season has started and we signed nobody; we have a weak squad, AND first team, for the foreseeable future; and it could and should have been very different right now.

The management need to take responsibility and act accordingly. If you treat our football club like a business – something I can understand to a certain extent – you also need to act like a proper business when those in charge over-promise and under-deliver; whoever that is. You also need to put things right pronto.

Your ‘customers’ demand it.

Written by: TotalArsenal.

ARSENAL FC – Sacrificing Trophies for Profit? You decide

Do Arsenal have the real appetite to spend?
Do Arsenal have the real appetite to spend?

Just some food for thought….

Since we last won the PL, The only winners have been Man United, Chelsea and ManCity.

We all know this. Yes, Chelsea, the club with no history have spent Megabucks to achieve all that they have achieved, same goes for ManCity. This is not news to any of us.

The game changed years ago since our Invincibles achieved what most believed would never happen. Roman invested heavily into a team that had not had much success at all, same with all the oil money now at City. The Mancs continued as per usual by investing in talent when they needed to.

My main gripe with what has happened to our club is that we have done quite the opposite. Selling our main core of players and re-investing in players who normally would not get a look into our team. Santi is one of the few shining stars who we have picked up due to the distress of another club.

Since the inception of the PL, what has The Arsenal actually spent on players?? If we look at the total amount we have made from selling players vs what we have spent on players since the start of the premier league, we have spent £20,216,000 (in 20 years). In comparison Man United have spent £230,810,000,

Chelsea £618,165,000 and ManCity £565,927,000.

We have spent considerably less than the winners of the past 10 years; a lot less, actually.

I do not expect us to spend the same crazy money that others have spent. Firstly, we would not have to spend a lot of money if we had not been soft and sold all our core players to direct rivals. Isn’t it funny that when we are looking at buying players from rival clubs, no one is crazy enough to sell to us. Rightly so!!

We have strengthened the likes of ManCity and even handed the title to Man United last season. Who is to blame? We are! In favour of making profits, we have sold our players and jeopardized our chances of winning any titles.

Did we need to sell the likes of Cesc (soon after signing a new contract) and RVP to a direct rival? My answer is NO!!  By selling RVP to a rival club we are saying that we are:

1)     more interested in making money

2)     Not serious about challenging for titles

3)     We are a selling club (in order to make profits)

I am not saying that I want Wenger Out. I appreciate all that he has done for the club. All I am saying is that we need a change of direction or leadership.
We have heard all the excuses over the past few years, and I do not buy it. Success brings in more commercial money, and the success we could have had with the players we have sold would have meant that we would not have needed to sell players in order to make a profit for the club. Success also makes you more attractive to other players; and from what we are witnessing now, we do not have the same pull on the Transfer Window as we once did. This is definitely evident.

Whilst the current TW is still open and we will make a few panic buys, I am not convinced that we are being led the way that a club such as The Arsenal should.

Yes, they will be panic buys because we’ve had the whole off season to plan and buy, and nothing has happened so far. It’s the same pattern as the past few seasons. We get thrashed by ManUre 8-2, we pick up Zorro, Per, Santos and Park.

Gibbs gets injured mid-season, we pick up Nacho.

How can the fans accept what is going on when we clear the dead wood from our books and still no one has come in. 17 out, 1 in on a free. Does that sound like a sound planning? Definitely not to me.

I now put it to you fine BK’ers out there: in your opinion, what do we need to change to get our fine club back to where it should be?

Written by: Alexgunners.

Gazidis set out ambitious lines in June, but will he and Arsene deliver?

Arsenal drug

So June is almost over; without any doubt, the hardest month for those of us  who are addicted to club football. Whilst still suffering from non-action cold turkey, we are straightaway bombarded with transfer gossip, both of players coming to us and some of our players wanting to leave.

The Terror/Torture Window officially opens on Monday 1st July, and let’s hope we will move from being ‘close’ to signing players to actually reading ‘signature announcements’ on Arsenal.com anytime soon.

Seldom or never does the word ‘close’ get abused more than during the Transfer Window. Whole armies of journalists and blog writers rely on it for producing endless articles that attract thousands of hits. However close Arsenal appear to be to signing a player, it is seldom or never close enough for comfort. Only a few weeks ago, we were ‘very close to signing Jovetic’…. I rest my case!

I wrote in the last post that the TW is not for the faint-hearted and there will be many more twists and turns. We could end up disappointed or ‘totally over the moon’, and I have no doubt that Gazidis and Wenger are feeling the pressure to deliver. Although Arsenal have, apparently, a war chest of £70m or more, it will still find it hard to compete with those who have limitless funds and don’t live by normal capitalist financial principles, or sporting morals.

The club will also need to demonstrate to their transfer targets real ambition to move things up now – that we are ready to win silverware again. It is one thing  to convince the likes of Giroud, Mertesacker and Podolski to come to Arsenal, but once we start to target players already playing for top clubs the ‘sales pitch’ will have to change, especially if we don’t want to attract the typical mercenaries.

Looking back at June, we can pull a few conclusions:

  1. The club has made it clear it has entered a new phase now: there will be significant funds available for player purchases from now on: apparently as much as £70m every season;
  2. Despite the press trying their best to tell us some of our players want to leave Arsenal, our boys have remained loyal to the club and kept a low profile since the season has finished;
  3. We are continuously linked with a different, better calibre of players – so called Super Quality – this summer;
  4. The club is trying to make space in the squad, by letting go of those players who are deemed as ‘surplus to requirement’.

In more than one way, the month of June has been one of over-promise: bigger funds available, no core players will leave, and the targeting of big, established players; and all of this on the basis that we are now (financially) ready to compete for silverware again. This is a very good, but risky, thing to do.

What’s been interesting, is that Gazidis has done most if not all of the talking – of setting out the strategic lines of the club – and this includes announcing that Wenger is expected to sign a new contract any time soon.

Yet, Arsene has been very quiet recently. Of course, he is on  holiday at the moment and will resume his duties for the club any time soon – with the first friendly in just over two weeks. But it will be interesting to see what Arsene has to say when he returns from his leave.

The problem with over-promising – something we are not used to from Arsenal in recent years – is that expectations will soar accordingly. Now, I reckon Gazidis is a clever man, who knows all about the risk of over-promising. So, it must be part of a well thought-out strategy to convince all stakeholders, including we the fans, as well as our transfer targets, that the club is ready to make the final step up now.

During the next month, we will see to a large extent whether Gazidis and Wenger can deliver on their promises. Let’s hope they will.

Written by: TotalArsenal.