I don’t know the exact details with regards to the club’s attempts to signing up Sagna to a new contract. I also don’t know whether he is determined to leave or would love to stay if a good offer is made to him. All I know, is that we are a big club and Sagna is a super quality player who still has a lot to offer to Arsenal.
We are supposed to have moved into a new era now: one of financial security and strength and, as a result, more control over player movements. After letting our best bunch of players go in recent years, we finally had a year in which all our remaining talents were kept at the home of football; and a SQ player was even added. So the signs are good, but keeping hold of Sagna will be the first proper test of the BoD’s competence in keeping hold of our very best players in the new era.
Now is the time to realise that not being able to keep hold of Sagna will reinforce the perception that we remain inferior to the other top clubs; or in fact, it would underline that we are no longer a top, but sub-top club.
I am sure that some will adopt a pragmatist approach: if he goes, we will replace him and all will be well again. But for me this would be wrong in more than one way.
Five reasons for keeping Bacary Sagna:
Mr Reliable personifies all that Arsenal should be about: he offers 100% passionate commitment to the cause and is the total professional. Bacary is one of my favourite Arsenal players ever. He brings so much more than being a reliable right back, with his drive up and down the flank, fighting spirit, winning mentality, leadership skills and love for the club. Letting him go would leave a very big gap in our team: what Sagna has to offer is impossible to replace, at least in the short term.
It is now important to build a culture of loyalty at the club; and we all know that loyalty needs to work both ways. If we look after our players, our players are far more likely to look after the club. There will always be mercenaries; in fact, they can be very useful for the club, but we need to show to our up and coming talents that they can have a full career at the club and will be looked after till the end of their careers, if they give their all to us. Bacary is such a player and keeping him would give out a strong signal that Arsenal is a good club to remain loyal to.
Our defence is becoming a strong unit and now is the time to keep it together for a few more seasons. Sagna and Mertesacker are a strong defensive duo on our right side, and the former compensates for one or two weaknesses the latter possesses. On top of that, Sagna can play as the BFG’s replacement as he possesses similar organisational skills as the German. Nobody else can do this and letting Bacary go will leave us with more than one hole in our already thinly covered back four.
Strong signal to this summer’s transfer prospects. Quality players have a choice to go anywhere they like and, other than money, they will be looking at the strength of the current squad and the club’s ability and willingness to keep hold of their best players. Keeping hold of Sagna would send out a strong signal that we are serious about moving the club to the next level.
Ludivine should never wear another club shirt than Arsenal’s. 😉
This season has been a bit of an anticlimax for the North London club. Arsenal led the Premier League on New Year’s Day, a feat usually reserved for the eventual champions. However, since then a string of unfortunate injuries to key players, including the likes of Theo Walcott, Mesut Özil, and Aaron Ramsey, amongst others, has dragged the Gunners into a fight for fourth place against Merseyside club, Everton. This lackluster end to the season has caused many Arsenal fans to turn against the players, manager, and board of Arsenal FC. To ease these fans’ worries, here are five reasons why Arsenal are actually on the rise.
1. The End of the Trophy Drought
It is a well-known and often discussed fact that Arsenal have not won a major trophy in almost nine years. However, on May 17th Arsenal will face Hull City in the FA Cup Final. Arsenal have faced Hull twice this season, including a recent 3-0 romp at the KC Stadium. The Gunners are expected to win this FA Cup and finally bring a trophy into the Emirates Stadium Trophy Room. This will create memories for the fans and players and help motivate players in the future. Winning a trophy will be a big attraction used to bring players to the Emirates this summer.
2. The War Chest
Speaking of attracting players this summer, Arsenal have just finished all of the major payments they’ve been making in recent years to cover the expenses of building the stadium. Arsene Wenger nearly tripled Arsenal’s record transfer fee last summer, by bringing in Mesut Özil from Real Madrid for £42.5 million. It looks likely that Arsenal will sign a lucrative kit sponsorship with Puma this summer. Depending on what sources you trust, this will add to the £70-150 million Arsene Wenger will be trusted to spend when the TW opens. Money like that will attract the top class of players this summer, and with many Gooners around the world clambering for a world class striker this summer, this is very promising news indeed. A world class striker would likely cost around £40-50 million pounds, but that still leaves us with plenty to spend on other positions that may need strengthening in the summer.
3. Top Quality Attracts Top Quality
On the subject of Özil’s transfer, let’s take a look at the players Arsenal will be boasting about next season: a refreshed Jack Wilshere, world class Mesut Özil, and lightning quick Theo Walcott, not to mention the stunning Aaron Ramsey, along with others. Top quality players, especially strikers, will jump at the chance to join an attacking lineup featuring those players over an aging Manchester United, struggling Tottenham, and an Everton squad that will look weak after its loan signings return to their parent clubs. Arsenal has been linked with many top quality players from top quality clubs, but Özil may now start a domino effect. Perhaps we go after a striker who desperately wants to play in front of a CAM of Özil’s quality. Then we go after a winger who wants to play with that striker. And then a defensive midfielder that wants to play through balls to that winger and so on.
4. Experience
In a recent interview with beIN Sports, Arsene Wenger confirmed he has given his word to the Arsenal hierarchy that he WILL sign a new contract with the club. His experience winning trophies in England, combined with experienced players such as Per Mertesacker, Tomas Rosicky, Mikel Arteta, Mathieu Flamini, and Lukas Podolski will be the opposite of the youthful sides Wenger has often been criticized for fielding in recent years. These experienced players, combined with the confidence of winning a trophy could lead to many titles sooner rather than later. Perhaps the addition of one to two more experienced players would give the club the world class youth combined with the steely experience needed to compete on all fronts.
5. The Deadwood Will Be Gone
Last summer Arsenal went through a major purge. Some players who never played were shifted out, including Squillaci, Chamakh, Arshavin, and more. This summer Bendtner’s contract will be expiring and he will be let go, Viviano will return to his parent club from loan, Djourou will be leaving to his now loan club permanently, and perhaps Diaby will be let go, along with countless of players out on loan that we will have to make decisions on. This will free up a lot of wages that we can use to add on to the wages of world class players looking for more money.
Let me know your thoughts on our current trajectory as a club. Thanks for reading! 😀
As most of you are well aware, I am not Olivier Giroud’s biggest supporter. However, as much as I harp on his shortcomings, he maximizes the abilities he does have to consistently put forth his best effort for the club – you simply cannot fault a player for that. Giroud also provides us with an alternative to our attack when we are struggling holding onto possession, often acting as a safety valve for our players to punt the ball in the air to. He allows others to join the attack with his hold up play and he is a constant threat on set pieces, while also providing the occasional exquisite one touch pass around the opponent’s 18-yard box. Giroud is also frequently seen tracking back and putting in an honest effort on the defensive side of the pitch, which can be rare for a lot of strikers.
More importantly, as Total Arsenal has pointed out on several occasions, Giroud allows Arsenal to continue to play a “team game”. He is generally unselfish and contributes to the team effort, which is a stark contrast to the guy with the “little boy inside of him” before him. What requires further consideration then, is to recommend strikers that would still be able to contribute to a “team game”.
However, what Giroud lacks is pace, the technical ability to drift wide and interchange with our wingers and prolific finishing ability. In general, his finishing could be improved upon, but what stands out is the fact that he has failed to register either a goal or an assist against the top clubs this season (I consider domestic top clubs to be Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, us and Everton this season). I’m not advocating for us to sell Giroud off, as I believe he is a valuable asset for this club and a perfect back-up striker/one to play against the more physical teams; I’m calling for Arsene to finally bring in the reinforcements up top to propel us to new heights.
The following are a list of players we have been linked to that Arsene could move for during this summer. They have been separated into three different bins, based on various factors, such as affordability, EPL credentials, potential etc. There are several more strikers that have been linked to Arsenal; however, in the interest of time, I have decided to focus on the more realistic options that could actually bring us to the next level.
The less affordable and international suspects. This category of striker would definitely replace Giroud from the starting line-up and likely would not be within a reasonable price range for Arsenal:
Jackson Martinez, ST, FC Porto
Rumoured transfer fee: £34 million
League Statistics: 19 goals and 0 assists in 27 Portuguese Liga starts and 1 sub appearance.
Strengths – Power, height, aerial ability, aggression, skill, flair, pace, vision, intelligent movements and clinical finishing ability – Jackson Martinez is simply the complete striker. He scored at pace greater than a goal per game in his first season at FC Porto, but unfortunately has taken a step back this year due to the loss of both Moutinho and James Rodriguez last summer.
Don’t believe me that he’s the complete striker? Just watch for yourself:
Weaknesses – High buy-out clause aside, the only knock on Jackson is that he’s not EPL tested. Critics may argue that Jackson has only dominated in lesser leagues, but his goal tally of 5 goals in 14 Champions League games says otherwise. While the statistics of 5 goals in 14 starts is not jaw dropping, one must consider these goals came against the best clubs in the world, and two were against Atletico Madrid and PSG.
Verdict: Uncertain. It remains to be seen if Arsene would shell out this kind of money on a striker when there are several positional areas that need upgrading this summer. However, based on availability, Jackson is likely the top option this summer, considering that Diego Costa is rumoured to be on his way to Chelsea and Lewandowski signed a pre-contract agreement with Bayern.
Mario Mandzukic
Rumoured transfer fee: £20 million
League Statistics: 18 goals and 4 assists in 20 Bundesliga starts and 8 sub appearances.
Strengths – Mandzukic is one of the most underappreciated strikers in the world right now. Due to Pep’s infatuation/stubbornness of playing without a traditional striker, he has been criminally underused both tactically and in playing time. He lacks the pace and flair of Jackson, but he’s stronger than him, as well as slightly faster, stronger and more skilled than Giroud. Mandzukic frequently contributes to the defensive side of the game and plays the game with a certain level of determination that is contagious. His aerial ability is second to none and he’s very comfortable in his hold-up play or drifting wide to set others up. With goals against most of the best clubs in the world, there’s no questioning his ability to score in big games either.
Weaknesses – As identified earlier, Mandzukic lacks pace. He would also directly replace Giroud from the starting line-up, without providing a substantial difference in terms of playing style (just slight improvements in several areas). It also remains to be seen if he can replicate his goal scoring form outside of arguably the best club in the world.
Verdict: Pass. Despite only being a slight improvement on Giroud in terms of what he brings to the game, his finishing ability is what separates him from our current crop of strikers. The price tag is affordable, but a departure is only likely if the player requests it for more playing time; Bayern has no other reason to sell.
Karim Benzema, ST, Real Madrid
Rumoured transfer fee: £25 million
League Statistics: 17 goals and 8 assists in 31 La Liga3 starts and 1 sub appearance.
Strengths – Probably the most Arsenal-esque striker in the world, he would likely be Arsene’s top choice if he were to become available at a cut-price fee due to Real Madrid’s interest in bringing either Suarez or Aguero to the Bernabeu. He’s scored against every top club and his skill would likely set the EPL ablaze. Benzema’s pace, flair, creativity, vision, finishing, power and movement are superb and he would fit seamlessly into our starting 11. His game also complements Giroud, but it’s unlikely that Arsene would play with two strikers upfront, given the plethora of talented midfielders at his disposal.
Weaknesses – For all his strengths, Benzema lacks aerial ability and his skill and pace mean that he sometimes drifts out wide to create an interchangeable front three. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s important to remember that our plan B of long balls (which we shouldn’t be doing in the first place) would no longer be as viable of an option. It could also bring unhealthy competition to both club and country, as both Giroud and Benzema are battling for the starting striker’s role on both fronts.
Verdict: Pass. Undoubtedly the most naturally talented striker on this list, it’s easy to forget that Benzema is still only 26 years old. He’s also the most proven striker on this entire list and he would have instant chemistry with Ozil. The fact that he offers something entirely different to Giroud is a big bonus and it would give us the flexibility to play with two up front or rotate if need be.
The less affordable and EPL tested suspects. This category of striker would likely replace Giroud from the starting line-up, but may not be within a reasonable price range for Arsenal:
Christian Benteke, ST, Aston Villa
Rumoured transfer fee: £21 million
League Statistics: 10 goals and 2 assists in 24 EPL starts and 2 sub appearances.
Strengths – Prior to his Achilles tendon injury, Benteke would have likely been my top candidate to lead Arsenal’s line next season. At only 23 years old and with a confessed love for the club, a relatively affordable price tag, a proven track record of goals in the EPL, in addition to a blend of power, pace and skill not typically seen from a striker, it’s easy to see why. He’s also a fairly levelheaded individual that would respect the requirements of contributing to a “team game”.
Weaknesses – After a brilliant start to his career with Aston Villa last term, he struggled to replicate that form this season due to injury. He may be unavailable until at least October and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be the same player prior to his injury. Benteke also handed in a transfer request after his first season with Aston Villa, which could be a red flag if he ends up producing at Arsenal and looks to make a move to yet another bigger club.
Verdict: Uncertain. Despite his injuries from this past season, Arsenal may need to eventually gamble to elevate their status as title pretenders to actual contenders. Whatever you might want to believe, Arsenal is not exactly a top destination for the cream of the crop currently; we may need to buy a striker like Benteke to drive us to a title before re-establishing ourselves in that upper echelon. His value may have also dropped after the combination of injury and not being able to replicate his form from 2012-13.
Romelu Lukaku, ST, Chelsea
Rumoured transfer fee: £25 million
League Statistics: 13 goals and 6 assists in 26 EPL starts and 2 sub appearances
Strengths – Basically a clone of Benteke/Drogba, Lukaku has the pace, power, skill and finishing ability to really bring Arsenal back into the upper echelon of clubs. He’s younger than Benteke, which is another added benefit and also has a relatively injury-free track record. No matter what club he is at, he just wants playing time and loves the game.
Weaknesses – Chelsea are unlikely to sell Lukaku to a domestic club, let alone a direct top four EPL rival. That aside, Lukaku still strikes me as a bit of a mercenary, and I could see him leaving after a season or two for the likes of Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City or even back to Chelsea!
Verdict: Fail. It’s highly unlikely that Chelsea will sell him to Arsenal, so we can likely forget about this one.
The affordable and EPL tested suspects. This category of striker would not necessitate replacing Giroud from the starting line-up, but would instead provide us with more rotation and greater versatility:
Loic Remy, ST/W, Newcastle (On Loan from QPR)
Rumoured transfer fee: £10 million
League Statistics: 13 goals and 2 assists in 22 EPL starts and 2 sub appearances
Strengths – Remy has pace and dribbling skills to burn, the benefit of being EPL tested, can score from distance and play on the wing if need be. He has scored 2 goals against top clubs in Chelsea and Everton this season in 5 appearances against such opposition. He comes at an affordable price relative to his production and is thus a viable option for a relatively conservative club that likely has bigger areas of need to address this summer.
Weaknesses – Remy has a fairly extensive injury history that has prevented him from ever fully reaching his potential. What Arsenal would gain in pace, dribbling and the odd screamer from distance, we would lose in hold up play, strength and aerial ability. Remy would basically be an improved Theo at striker, in terms of offering better positional awareness and slightly less reliant on his speed and movement to score goals.
Verdict: Fail. With all the injuries we have accumulated over the years, adding another injury-prone player is probably the last thing Arsenal needs, despite his versatility and promising track record with scoring goals in the EPL.
Demba Ba, ST, Chelsea
Rumoured transfer fee: £8 million
League Statistics: 4 goals and 1 assist in 3 EPL starts and 14 sub appearances
Strengths – Ba’s statistics will not jump out at anyone, but this has more to do with Mourinho’s confidence in his abilities as a striker than with his actual abilities. He would add depth at an affordable price to Arsenal’s attack and has more pace than Giroud. He would add the bare minimum component of versatility and depth to our attack options, while still having the ability and will to play a “team game”. Finally, he is fairly durable and would be able to stay healthy, which is highly important.
Weaknesses – Ba has never been a top striker, but merely an effective one that was capable of scoring 10-15 goals a season. He doesn’t have one particular attribute that stands out and instead, is the type of player who does many things relatively well. Playing time notwithstanding, Ba has struggled to prove that he should be a starter at a top club in Chelsea, which may or may not be worrisome for Arsenal.
Verdict: Uncertain. Depending on what other options are available out there, Ba should not be our first priority. For a club with EPL and Champions League title aspirations, Arsenal should certainly be looking to aim higher. Ba is a capable last resort if nothing else is feasible though.
Danny Welbeck, ST, Manchester United
Rumoured transfer fee: £13 million
League Statistics: 9 goals and 1 assist in 13 EPL starts and 9 sub appearances
Strengths – You may not know this, but Welbeck has been the third most clinical striker in the EPL this season with a conversion rate of 31%. However, he has been limited in his opportunities as a striker and has been played in a variety of positions, such as CAM, LW and RW. He offers good pace, movement, creativity and honours his defensive responsibility – in 2013, Welbeck created a clear cut chance for his teammates every 276 minutes and made a tackle every 39 minutes (Statistics all courtesy of eplindex.com). He would be a great fit in Arsene’s expectation of a “team game” and his skill set would complement that of Giroud’s.
Weaknesses – Is it a lack of opportunity playing with van Persie and Rooney or a testament of his ability that he has struggled to find consistent minutes at striker? Van Persie has endured an injury riddled season and yet Welbeck has still not been able to cement regular playing time at ST, unless Rooney has also been injured. Prior to this season, he also struggled with his composure in the final third, but his conversion rate this season suggests otherwise.
Verdict: Tentative Pass. He could turn out to be the next Sturridge (a great scorer without ample opportunity at his current club) or he could truly turn out to be surplus to requirements at a 7th place club. Still, Welbeck is young enough to warrant taking a gamble on him since the transfer fee is reasonable. BUT, he should be nothing more than a back-up option if things do not pan out with other strikers with a more proven goal scoring history.
Edin Dzeko, ST, Manchester City
Rumoured transfer fee: £15 million
League Statistics: 11 goals and 1 assist in 19 EPL starts and 8 sub appearances
Strengths – With occasional goals against tough opponents throughout Dzeko’s career, there is some evidence that he can score in big games. He also understands the perseverance and drive it takes to win titles (EPL and Bundesliga), is EPL tested and has the physicality, power and skill to thrive in place of Giroud. Dzeko is in the last year of his contract and has apparently been told by Manchester City management that he is free to leave the club this summer. At £15 million, he is likely the best EPL option that Arsenal can afford this summer, while still contributing to a “team game”, without tying up sacrificing transfer funds elsewhere.
Weaknesses – Despite scoring some goals against top clubs, Dzeko is not a striker that can score at will. This is accurately reflected in his price and if Arsenal bought him, he should not be expected to be our savior/van Judas replacement. He’s failed to out compete the likes of Negredo and Aguero for a starting berth at Manchester City, so Arsenal will have to hope this is attributed to a lack of opportunity and not a testament to his ability (similar to Sturridge when Liverpool bought him from Chelsea).
Verdict: Pass. Again, depending on what other options are available out there, Dzeko should not be our first priority. However, Arsenal could do much worse than buying Dzeko, especially if we can buy a top box-to-box midfielder to play alongside Ramsey this summer. He would be hungry to prove to his former club that they made a mistake in letting him go and would be provided with the opportunity to do so at Arsenal. Never underestimate the ability of a departed player looking for redemption.
Looking back on the season at this point at the beginning of March, one can say that there have been positive signs in terms of us being competitive with Manchester City and Chelsea, two clubs backed by enormously wealthy owners. Some say that this was a season of opportunity with management of Chelsea and both Manchester clubs in transition, but at this point it could also be said that we could have been standing in a much worse position at this juncture, not least taking into account the mood of the club after our season opening loss at home to Aston Villa. The 2013/14 season as a whole is now very much in the balance following the disappointing away loss to Stoke, but we still have a decent shot at a trophy, most likely the FA Cup, with the Premier League title still an outside shot.
Over the weekend we have had a revelation courtesy of Liverpool’s club owner, John Henry, who said this in a filmed panel discussion at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference:
“Luis Suarez is the top scorer in the English Premier League which is arguably the top soccer league in the world”
“And he had a buy-out clause – I don’t know what degree I should go into this – but he had a buy-out clause of £40million – more than 60 million (US) dollars. So Arsenal, one of our prime rivals this year … they offered £40million and one pound for him and triggered his buy-out clause.”
“But what we’ve found over the years is that contracts don’t seem to mean a lot in England – actually not in England, in world football. It doesn’t matter how long a player’s contract is, he can decide he’s leaving.”
It is very rare for us fans to know details of the ins and outs of backroom dealings, but by John Henry being so clear in his own words we now have some explicit clarity with regards to the Luis Suarez transfer saga last summer.
One can only imagine where we would be placed at this point in the season if we had pulled off the signing of Suarez. It is largely water under the bridge now but I do think the rare clarity of information we have received courtesy of John Henry enables a revisit of what likely happened from our side, as a club, in attempting to pull off the Suarez signing, but ultimately failing. The most important thing is that there are lessons to be learned, and perhaps justifiable calls for some accountability.
Obviously at some point last summer we had been tipped off about a £40m release clause in Suarez’s contract, most likely by Pere Guardiola, his agent. One would suggest timing linked with a rather suspect flurry of betting activity in Spain, reported in various media sources in early July of that summer. The fact that we were tipped off indicates that Suarez was at that time very interested in a move to Arsenal. Based on this information our club proceeded to the infamous £40m + £1 bid which we rightly expected would trigger the release clause. However, John Henry refused to cooperate and Liverpool used the media to embarrass us regarding the nature of the bid, and by doing so the suits in executive offices of our club (our executive management) were instantly rocked back onto their heels; a position from which they never recovered in regaining an upper hand.
Refusing to allow a player to proceed to negotiate personal terms with a club that has triggered a release clause is pretty unprecedented. John Henry has boasted that words in Suarez’s contract counted for little, but I take this as bluster. Liverpool would have been left wide open to pressure, be it from the PFA, the FA, UEFA, FIFA, or even a combination of these bodies because challenging the whole framework of contracts is not something that authorities can readily accept, as it would ultimately risk chaos in the professional sport as a whole, in England, and possibly globally. One has to ask, when it was clear at the time that Luis Suarez very much wanted to join Arsenal for Champions League football, why pressure, with or without legal recourse, was not exerted on LFC. I will explain why it probably was not, at least not to any significant level.
For all we know, there could have been some action behind the scenes, at least a lot of discussions amongst executive management at Arsenal as to potential strategies of how to outmaneuver Liverpool. However, this tracks back to our bid of £40m + £1. The nature of this bid was an overt admission that we had been tipped off on Suarez’s release clause, and by the letter of the law of professional football such tip offs are illegal. Although technically illegal, it is pretty widely known within the football community that players’ agents talk with clubs and divulge contract details, and such communications reside in a gray area which is largely tolerated. Murky gray area notwithstanding, there was no way that we could deny that we had been tipped off regarding Suarez’s release clause and that very likely put our executive management in a bit of a legal straightjacket.
In hindsight, although we know that any money included in a bid over and above a release clause is perhaps unnecessary money spent, if we had put in a bid of £42m there is no way that it could have been definitively proven by Liverpool that we had put in a bid for Suarez after gaining inside information. A bid of £42m in all likelihood would have secured the signing of Suarez in my humble opinion. Arsenal’s backroom were outfoxed by Liverpool’s backroom despite having a strong upper hand initially because of poor strategic thinking that allowed an opportunity to slip through our fingers. Remember Arsenal did not reveal the +£1 bid, that was John Henry and Liverpool, in a very high profile manner, i.e. they used the media to outfox us.
I wanted to share this revisiting of the Suarez transfer saga last summer, because it is very rare that fans know all the ins and outs of transfer dealings; but in this case, we have John Henry in his own words as firm evidence. The opportunity for signing Suarez has in all likelihood come and gone. While we hope that the suits in our executive offices have reflected on how they were likely outfoxed, I believe it is right for fans to have confidence that indeed lessons are being learned moving forwards. We should demand some accountability, so that improvements can be built into our overall approach, and perhaps a review and reorganisation of individual staff responsibilities. Doing so can only help, in terms of future transfer dealings.
So where should accountability lie?
Personally I do not lay any blame with Arsène Wenger. Where we fell short in the Luis Suarez saga was in poor strategic thinking, and although the football manager may play a role, responsibility for such strategic thinking should lie within a core team within the club’s executive management. If the football manager overtly oversaw the process then that is not necessarily his fault; he is an employee of the club and those higher up in the club’s structure should understand his limitations and recognise the need to assert themselves more. Ultimately in this case, I believe we have clarity that points us to our Chief Executive, i.e. Ivan Gazidis (IG). One could perhaps consider Dick Law, but IG should have been in the loop of details every step of the way. If IG wasn’t, one has to question his oversight as Chief Executive. One could perhaps consider Stan Kroenke, but I don’t believe Kroenke should be expected to know every detail; he employs IG and should trust him to perform competently with a degree of autonomy in the lofty, well paid, position of Chief Executive.
To make it clear, I am not asking for IG to be sacked. Indeed, one can point to much good that he has done for the club in enhancing commercial revenues. Perhaps what is needed is a little restructuring of our executive management with someone with ultimate responsibility for transfer dealings, at an organisational level in between IG and Dick Law. Many clubs nowadays employ a Director of Football, but I do not recommend one. I prefer a football manager to have full responsibility for players he wants to sign because he has to manage those players. A person in between IG and Dick Law wouldn’t be a Director of Football; indeed, he would be more like David Dein. Last summer we hired Chips Keswick as Chairman, as successor to Peter Hill Wood. I do not know what Chips Keswick exactly does, but perhaps we can question this hire and whether we should have brought back David Dein (or someone similar to David Dein) at that juncture. Nevertheless, there is room for IG, Chips Keswick (as successor to PHW), as well as a David Dein. This would take any ambiguity of transfer dealing oversight largely away from IG, so that he can focus largely on continuing to grow commercial revenues.
On a side note, obviously John Henry felt free to divulge details at this juncture because Liverpool are in a good position in the Premier League table, Luis Suarez appears fully satisfied there now, and they are in a good position to secure Champions League football for next season. John Henry had an up close and personal view of effectiveness of our executive management in transfer dealings last summer, outsmarting them in the process – one could argue very easily. He used the media very well in going so public with our £40m + £1 bid, perhaps with a level of faux outrage.
Ultimately, he made our executive management look like a bunch of amateurs, and in saying what he did in a filmed panel discussion at MIT over the weekend it was the equivalent of him smoking one of his cigars while enjoying how he got one over on Arsenal Football Club. We should perhaps see the glass half full and draw on this as motivation as fans to demand from the club’s executive management some transparency of lessons learned and associated adjustments, in line with my humble suggestions, or otherwise.
Arsene has got his work cut out to make the team bounce back once more.
More than 24 hours after the debacle at Anfield, it is still not easy to come to terms with the devastating implosion of our team in just 1200 seconds.
Regular BKers know that I believe our first team players are not lazy and calculated but committed and passionate about our club. It is natural to want to point towards a lack of attitude by our players for this embarrassing performance, but I reckon this would be self-deceiving. Yesterday, technically and tactically we were not good enough and Arsene Wenger is the main culprit for this.
It would be a lot easier to blame a lack of passion and commitment as the main cause of our defeat, but on the day we were simply not good enough. It will now be key for Wenger and his players to show us this was just a bad day at the office.
In a nutshell, we lost the game through two horribly defended Pool set-pieces and a subsequent inability to turn the game round without leaving the door wide open for the Scousers’ deadly counter-attacks. And deadly they were.
As 17highburyterrace pointed out yesterday, nothing is more frustrating to watch than Mertesacker having to run back towards his own goal chasing the game. We lacked shape, organisation, composure, professionalism and, most of all, any dominance when it still mattered.
The set-pieces were defended badly by the whole of the team, as we looked all over the place (especially the second one), but our CBs should have taken better control of those situations.
It is also fair to say we were not able to match the energy of the Pool players at the start of the game. We knew we had it coming and we should have been prepared better for this.
As others have pointed out already this weekend, and as I have been saying since the start of the season, our weakest area is in the double-DM pivot. Without a fit Flamini we are a different team, especially against the top teams. And going forward we need to improve on Flamini as well if we really want to come close to beating the top teams on a regular basis (and win silverware).
We lost the battle in midfield as we were unable to match Pool’s energy and speed, and I am holding my breath for what is to come in the next few games, as we seem to have structural problems in this crucial area.
I like Arteta, but he is not the man to protect our back-four and lead our team in these kinds of matches. Keen observers will point out he was not fully fit and he did not get much support defensively from Jack (also not fully fit). I would agree with that, but even if Arteta had been fully fit he still would have struggled to protect and lead effectively on the day.
Arsene had a chance to properly strengthen the DM area during January but he chose not to. By all accounts, KK is another attack-minded midfielder rather than a defence-minded one. If this area turns out to be the area where we lose this season’s chances to win silverware, I will be very disappointed in Wenger. Let’s see what he will do next for the games against Manure, Liverpool and Munich.
But it was not just our DMs and CBs who were not good enough on the day; Cazorla, Ozil and Ox also had little or no impact on the game and Giroud was totally isolated. Our midfield only started to play as a bit of a unit in the second half, when it was far too late.
Without a good functioning DM-pivot the defence will not get the right protection and our attack will be left isolated. I cannot stress enough how vital the deeper laying midfield duo is to the overall effectiveness of the team. They are the brakes and gear box of the team.
I am confident that Mertesacker and Koscielny will sort out the defence again, but I have doubts about our ability to protect them and to dominate midfield play during the next few crucial games again. Wenger and Bould have their work cut out here, and let’s hope they will get it right.
It is hard to imagine Gervinho has only been gone for half a season. It somehow feels a lot longer. It is fair to say the man with the LCD sized forehead was not a great success at Arsenal. But I reckon Arsene did not give him long enough, as he, uncharacteristically, let him go after just two seasons.
I don’t think we, the supporters, always realise enough what an incredible step it is for an African player to come and play in Europe; and a move from a medium sized city like Lille to world city London is also not to be pooh-poohed at.
Gervinho clearly lacked confidence at times, but in each and every game there were at least glimpses of his potential. I guess his low point was the League Cup game against Bradford, on a cold, wet and windy autumn night in the grim North. Giroud was rested and Gervinho led the line. He missed a number of sitters and the rest is bleak history. It was not just Gervinho who had a below par game that day; the whole team let us down badly.
After that, many fans had it in for our former meandering Ivorian and he never got properly over this. I was not Gervinho’s biggest fan, but I could see his potential and value to the team. He had speed, dribbling skills, decent first touch and close ball control. He was the only one of all our players who could penetrate a well protected box. His understanding with fellow players was not great and neither was his finishing. The question is, though, could this have been worked on within the team and on the training ground?
Four goals and four assists in sixteen games for Roma tell us he is settling quite well into his new environment. I have seen him play a few times and he appears to fit well into his new team. Roma play with pace and quickly turn defence into attack, and for this Tricky Gervais is a great outlet. His winner (1-0), against Juventus for the Italian Cup, will no doubt be one of his club career highlights, and I am really pleased he is doing so well right now.
I don’t really want him back now, but I do wish we had kept him a bit longer, especially now that Theo is out of for the season.
Will Arsene surprise us once again with an Ozil-calibre signing at the last minute?
It is Transfer Window Dreadline Day and things are not looking good. The Draxler deal looks dead and buried and, as far as I can judge, we are not being strongly linked with anybody else as I write this quick post.
All the shenanigans surrounding our attempts to buy Higuain last summer should have taught us that a player is not a Gunner until announced on Arsenal.com. Most of us remained realistic throughout the process, and will not be too disappointed to see a deal for Draxler fall through.
However, the show is not over until the fat lady sings and Arsenal love to leave it to the last day, as the added time/deadline pressure makes for far better negotiation strategies (if indeed the club(s) of the players on our ‘wanted list’ are keen to sell after all…).
Draxler could, after all, still be on his way. Whether we should be super excited about signing a 20 year old at this time of the season, is a completely different matter. Short term, I cannot see him make a significantly bigger impact than say Ox or Gnabry are doing currently; and I am happy to see him come in the summer.
I saw him play a few times during which he showed glimpses of his potential, but I am not yet convinced he will be a great success. We as fans want the club to spend what it takes but we should expect the negotiators to pay what they regard as the right price. I also do not want another Reyes or Arshavin as we need a long term, successful solution for the LW position, which has looked cursed for a long time now.
It might also be the case that we were not really after Draxler at all, and that he has been ‘used as a Higuain’ to get a good deal for Arsene’s main transfer target this January. If so, who will be the ‘Ozil of this TW….? It will be all clear at midnight, as luckily the whole thing comes to an end and we can just focus on our football.
As regular BKers will know, I am keen to get DM support as soon as possible. With Flamini out for four key games, and Arteta struggling to get back to full form and fitness, experienced, ready to rock cover is required urgently. This was my priority nr1 at the start of the Terror Window and it has only become more urgent. It will not be easy, but it is a position Arsene has been trying to fill for for a couple of years, and hopefully he is ready to get our man now.
It sounds like Arsene is now focussing on DM support, but let’s see what will happen next.
Some questions for you to keep the debate going today:
Where do we need to strengthen as our first priority?
Who would you have liked us to sign this TW?
Who do you reckon will join us before COP tonight?
Who will leave/ be loaned?
What do you want the outcome to be from the Northern Oilers v Southern Oilers match on Monday?
Ozil is learning to play with OG as our ‘holding striker’ and has some way to go;
OG is not the sort of striker who can take full advantage of Ozil’s vision and passing ability.
There is potential for a clash of styles here and, as a result, a risk of frustrating/not getting the best out of Ozil in the process.
And these questions:
Which formation should we play?
Should they play together at all?
Who should play around them to get the best value out of both players – do we need to buy or is there a solution within the current squad?
This was my first response:
TA – Fine post, much needed. Thanks.
I cannot be very original in my response as much has been said already. So take it as read that, time (to get know player’s preferences), first season (different challenges from a more competitive league), and changes in personnel (altering the balance of the side, as well having different contributions to make) are a given ….
But then as I continued my reply, I quickly realised this post raised some really deep, fundamental questions that needed to be answered, but too much for a simple reply, even the length some of my replies run to? So this post was born. Hopefully answering some of those questions, and raising others. I began with this:
I query the question Ozil and OG playing together less well, than say, Santi and Ozil, but that too may work out in time. The trouble is, in this season and the position we are in – i.e. being TOTL and being hard pressed by two of the moneybags clubs: One who spent heavily at the start of the season with their changed manager already at the helm, as with Man City; and the other, whose new manager inherited an expensive set of players, but is now retuning, by buying and selling in this January transfer window, Chelsea. – Whereas we haven’t really got the time to work through mini clashes of style, at the expense of possibly losing valuable points?
So to answer these questions I ran through the following arguments.
What will liven up our attack will be the introduction of Ox, Gnabry and Draxler (JD) (WHEN) he arrives. I don’t believe there is much of a problem with OG, that other threats on goal, particularly in and around the box, will not cure. Mostly when we play, OG is isolated. In the Villa game a few times we saw a typical example when the high ball is played forwards they had two or three players close in quickly for an easy turnover ball, because he had no immediate support. JD will be the player that AW has in mind to be the CAM who will be near enough to help out, as he has the speed and dribbling ability to get past defenders so that, if my theory holds good, they will not be able to put more than one on Giroud. That will change the whole dynamics up front?
Gnabry is the player we have, who, as the audio commentary team reminded everybody, played second striker (to Akpom) last season, which is probably more his natural position. Even AW since has said ‘the middle is where he (Gnabry)will end up’. Also, it might become a double threat with JD on the left and SG on the right in the future?
We have now played Fulham since TA’s original post, and I believe it showed how the side might develop as the players get more time together? It still had the same problem that TA alluded to in his post, that Ozil struggles to make key passes when those around him are not moving into viable spaces, and particularly where such passes would lead to goal opportunities. It is not Giroud’s strong point to drop a shoulder, twist turn and dribble on his way to score. We know that. Another reason is partly due to the amount of bodies wanting to be in the central area, from our own players pulling in defenders? Even when the opportunities did come, the lack of clinical finishing meant the chances went begging.
However, in the first half there was a lot of movement from our midfield, as well as with Giroud. A lack of composure from young Gnabry, and a not so sharp Giroud meant the score stayed at 0-0. The real point to me was, probably for the first time, the whole of the midfield was involved? The heat map of Gnabry showed bright spots on the left and left centre, but the heaviest involvement was centre right and right wing. But he also had his moments deeper helping the defence. Ozil’s heat maps usually show a similar pattern, but with less emphasis on the central area. Whereas, Wilshere would have shown a distinct bias in a broad central strip.
In this game Cazorla was the main beneficiary, whereas in the Villa game Ozil had more say in pulling the strings.
So who will be the Chief Puppeteer?
Wilshere had a third game where he showed his best form, and he is also key to how this master plan unfolds. The reason why his game flourished in the Fulham game I think is twofold. One I think is his ‘maturity’ in getting a ‘true’ feel for being a creative midfielder, rather than trying to carry the team single handedly. Others are there now, so he can concentrate on what he can do best? What I basically mean by that, he was playing a supportive role, rather than trying to be the conductor? Secondly, operating straight down the middle, to play and receive balls, he did not displace Cazorla from doing his creative work in the same area, and so they complimented each others play. Which works well as long as others moved around intelligently, which they did. Ultimately, it was Santi’s interaction, with Wilshere in particular, across the box that enabled him to get the two snap shots away that produced the winning goals. Perhaps that is the one thing Ozil does not do often enough, as he enjoys providing for others. That is a subtle difference between them?
But there hangs the dilemma. With the rise of Cazorla’s performance, Ozil became more of a peripheral figure as the game wore on. Not that he was not contributing, but there were only flashes of his genius to make key passes?
It will take time I think, for him not just to link with specific players, but get more familiar with the space, and for the others to get to know that same space where the ball is played? I would guess that is why Ramsey can do well playing with Ozil. When he is high on his confidence and simply playing intuitively, he too can see the same space. This is what we need more of, as well as see the whole midfield working as a complete unit?
Gnabry, in just two games, has improved no end with his off the ball movement. So, with his dribbling skills and shooting with both feet will be a joy to behold by the time he is 20. But in the meantime he is still another option to be developed into a goal scoring threat. As it stands at the moment, he may not be enough of one to drag defenders away from Giroud, but that will change?
The Ox too, could play this role, but he too will have to get up to speed. The key to all these players, OG included, is how well they will link with Ozil? Podolski has not got the goals he has by being a duffer either. I agree with those suggesting it has been a fitness issue that may have kept him out recently. The calf wrapping shown in the training photos before the Fulham game lends support to this? Also AW has an aversion to doing early substitutions, so rather than start a game, I think he will do more ‘last half hours’ for the time being?
That then is the case for the attacking threat. We have the players, and are likely to add to it before the transfer window ends. Who ‘they’ are, if more than one, or even less than one, we will know on February 1st.
Ozil, ideally needs quick thinking players who have the necessary pace around him, and then his true value to the team will surely blossom. So, the combinations that work well with Ozil are; the ‘mutual admiration society’ candidates Rosicky at the head; Ramsey, playing on ‘instinct’ higher up the pitch; Wilshere in his ‘mature’ mode, but still a work in progress; Cazorla on the evidence of the last game also still needs work on how to involve Ozil more when playing together? Ox, as another creative, attacking midfielder, will like Gnabry become the alternative scoring threats, and will only get better the more they play?
However, the fundamental question asked was, should we change our current style and bring in a striker who fits the requirements of Ozil, but changes in quite a big way, the whole set up of the way we are playing at the moment?
The case for Giroud, who is our main striker, and as such would be expected to be our main goal scorer. The fact that he is not a quick, nimble footed striker, he does not fit the natural mould of what sort of player Ozil would like to play key passes to? But does that make him redundant? Do we really need to find a replacement, as TA’s post asks?
I do not think AW is looking to replace him, going by the intention of getting Suarez, or indeed, the ‘new RVP’ in JD? I support that view. I will now try and answer the ‘BIG’ question – Does Giroud hold Ozil back?
The lack of natural fit is a hard one to argue with, regards the Ozil/Giroud combination. But I will deflect that by looking to see if that is who Ozil should be interacting with regards to getting goals?
I have a slightly radical idea that Giroud is not actual a proper No 9. Instead he is more an atypical false No 9, and would do a lot better if he were to drop back 10 or 15 yards? Basically, to where such false central player would play? Now instantly you will think ‘he ain’t going to score many goals from there’?
True, but what he does well is hold up play, and give knock downs and flicks to others if the options are available. By being that bit closer to our midfielders he should not only have more options, but also be less heavily marked. He is, by and large, our main outlet ball from our goalkeeper, be that free kicks or long punts up field. But he does not have to be the furthest player forwards to be effective?
So I believe the right striker, should we get one, or JD, or both, or the Ox, the Gnabry, would be the ones to drive forward in the middle. But should another winger materialise, then a knock down ball to Ozil could have a field day spreading passes out wide? Balls cut back should still find Giroud in space, and with the right one-twos and movement in the box Giroud could be deadly with his best weapons, his feet, whether assisting or scoring?
Where are the Jack’s, Santi’s, and Ozil’s when we switch to attack. Perfecting what they did in the Fulham game. Pass and Move. Pull defences out of shape. Make the openings for a number of bodies to score. Since Giroud has been with us we have scored more goals overall that in the RVP year of being the ‘one man band’. Let us not lose sight of that fact. Giroud does not score many goals with his head, so have him pulling defenders away from the keeper so others can? On set pieces we have Mert, Kos, Sagna, and even Ramsey can all put the ball in the net from headers, as well as knock it back for people like Cazorla, Wilshere, Gnabry, Ox, and yes, Giroud to score from slightly deeper positions with their feet.
The key is finding space. That is what Ozil is about. If we get JD, fine. We will have a player who can make use of his skills. If we get a striker who is also quick, and maybe able to head the ball, that too would be a bonus. But above all, we want players that compliment our squad, because the players we are developing, in time, are likely to be better than those available now, JD excepted, as he too will develop along with them. But all will appreciate having the unselfish Giroud and Ozil doing what they do best.
We should too?
So, my answer to the statement in the previous title;
‘Are Arsenal Getting The Best Out Of Ozil – Is Giroud holding him back?’
The answer is No, but Giroud is not the problem.
The answers to other points raised:
Q.- Ozil is learning to play with OG as our ‘holding striker’ and has some way to go?
Answer; Should read learning to play ‘around’ OG, and that has some way to go?
Q.- OG is not the sort of striker who can take full advantage of Ozil’s vision and passing ability?
Answer; True, in the direct sense. But vision and passing ability is Ozil’s department, and he should be using it in more appropriate areas, eg out wide, or in the box, to players that can benefit?
Q.- There is potential for a clash of styles here and, as a result, a risk of frustrating/not getting the best out of Ozil in the process?
All players get frustrated when their efforts are not rewarded with an end result. However, by focussing on Giroud as his only outlet for a successful conclusion is where this observation is misplaced, and Ozil’s if he feels that?
And these questions:
Q.- Which formation should we play?
A.- That depends on two things; Who is available; Where they can best be used. But a variation within 1-4-6? That allows for a variety of patterns to be formed according to who is bringing their strengths to the game. Our usual 1-4-2-3-1 may be adjusted to allow and extra body up front?
Q.-Should they play together at all?
A.- If the ‘they’ refers Ozil Giroud together, I believe the strength’s of both can be used very effectively.
Q.- Who should play around them to get the best value out of both players – do we need to buy or is there a solution within the current squad?
A.- This is the bigger question. From the above I have argued for both points. We do need a player who is a threat in the box. Ideally that player will be quick, nimble and score goals(JD), but in time, both Ox and Gnabry could become that type of player.
Time, in this season we do not have, so buy is the likely option. A different type of striker is also a possibility, but that depends what else he can add to the squad. I should also add, that should Bendtner recapture his best form, he too could benefit from any addition, and has the addition of being a good header of goals?
But that is only half the problem. At best, with Giroud and Ozil playing it leaves just 3 players to fill the remaining places. One B2B, two creative/attacking MFs, so getting the right balance will be the most important. Should a solid DM be on the shopping list, then possibly 3 rather than 2, out of the 7 or 8 possibilities to choose from? AW is going to be very creative to keep all parties happy, and more importantly, fresh and ready to start when needed? But any kind of pecking order will lead to frustration if over used?
Combine that with who works best with who, and you have a balancing nightmare if all stay fit?
If AW was prepared to play Ozil twice in every three games, not that strictly regimented, but say, over a period of ten games, he starts in six of them? Then, I would say alternate Ozil with Cazorla, based on recent evidence. Similarly, Ramsey and Wilshere. Rosicky, as I have said already, will work around whoever else starts. The younger pair, Ox and Gnabry, and to some extent Podolkski, would have to take their chances as they arise. Mostly from the subs bench I would guess, except when the need for width arises. But may be this is where new signings may also compete?
None of this is set in stone, but it is going to take a great deal more flexibility within the squad for all to maintain the unity that the smaller squad offers?
However, for this to fully work with this many MF’s committed to attack, you need a holding DM behind them to slow down attacks to allow the proper defensive lines to take shape? This is covered as long as we have both Arteta and Flamini fit. If Frimpong goes out on loan, we have the returning Frances Coquelin to assist. He is quick, but also likes to get forward. The replacement we need is someone who ‘commands’ that space behind. A ‘Presence!’ no less. More importantly, if we are continuing to use our FB’s as wingers/wing backs, a single DM allows us a more dynamic midfield, but probably neither Arteta or Flamini are capable of doing on the their own? However, if wide attacking players are used, then the need for advance FB’s diminishes? That could at least defer the need for the SQ DM until a suitable one is available in the next window?
In conclusion; Ozil will find his space no matter who else is playing, but how effective he is depends on how well they all work as a team. If you play Cazorla in the free central role, the ‘Arshavin’ best position, working across the line of opposition defenders, it will bring the best out in his game. Ozil can pull the strings with the wider players and create spaces for the central bodies to work better. You then have Rosicky and Ramsey for energy and drive, Wilshere for the central support. Gnabry and Ox for width, and Podolski as an alternative frontline striker, unless we get other options in this window?
Such are the complexities within our midfield, that the best combinations will gradually be found. But I also think having the one of the most creative midfielders around, we should not get to be too reliant on just his input in every game? We have talent to spread the load, we should use them?
We are, as it stands at the moment, reliant on Giroud to be our ‘holding striker’, and he is very capable of scoring many more goals this season. But if we can share that burden with whoever is available to play for us after January 31st, then he too will find life a lot easier?
Nobody said managing a football club was easy. Thank heavens we have got somebody who has practical experience running our club, rather than my theoretical aspirations to what might work?
Comments will be appreciated if they go beyond one liners. But on the fundamental question of changing our approach to accommodate one player’s needs, is very much open for discussion?
Don’t worry about Theo, our core team will see us through.
Theo out is a knock, but it will allow others to shine!
It looks like Wenger is still looking for his best formation and ideal eleven starters. Will we continue with a holding striker who enables the midfield to get closer to the goal and produce their magic, or will we start playing more and more with a fluid- three up-front, or even move to a 4-6-0 sort of formation?
We do of course need a lot more than eleven players to make it through a season, but I reckon most if not all teams work around a core of 11 to 15/16 players for most of the matches. Every team needs a strong unit around which it builds its style of football, its confidence and ultimately, if all goes well, its success. The rest is there mainly for cover and future potential.
Now that Arsene is finally in a position that he can keep hold of the talents he develops and has money to add top talents and established quality players, we will see the team grow from strength to strength. Theo’s injury is painful but in a way also interesting as it gives a few ‘fringe players’ a unique chance to nestle themselves into the very core of the team.
Wenger’s current core eleven players appear to be Szczesny, Sagna, BFG, Koz, Gibbs, Flamini, Ramsey, Ozil, Jack, Santi and Giroud. His core 16 players are the core eleven plus Vermaelen, Nacho, Arteta, Rosicky and Podolski. I have a lot of confidence is these 16 warriors. It is a mixture of talented youth and experienced players in their late twenties and as a team they are developing quickly.
If Theo had not got injured he would have been in the core eleven, probably at the cost of Ramsey, Jack or Santi. With Ox coming back and Gnabry starting to make the headlines there is healthy pressure on the core team to keep performing well. It is clear that the defenders and goal keeper feel very little of such pressure and the midfielders are also without much threat, as there are plenty of games for all of them to play regularly.
Some say we need another attacker, but with Pod, Giroud, and hopefully soon again Bendtner we have three good front men and, with our midfielders now scoring regularly as well, you have to wonder whether another striker is our first priority right now. We can get goals from Podolski, Giroud, Ozil, Santi, Ramsey, Bendtner, Jack, Rosicky, and hopefully Ox and Gnabry will also get regularly on the score sheet. It would be nice though.
I reckon we are most vulnerable to an injury to either Mertesacker or Flamini, and it is in these areas were we should spend our money first. You could even argue that getting a quality right back is Wenger’s biggest priority as it would free up Sagna for the Mertesacker role. Sagna could also be our beast of a DM and even Vermaelen could be developed into one; in which case we need to buy another CB for cover.
Let’s keep it solid at the back and in front of the back five, and hopefully we’ll buy some more quality steel this January. Key is for our attacking midfielder and front men to find more cohesion between them and to get more value out of our full backs in the attacking third of the pitch. Sagna is doing really well and Gibbs and Nacho are getting close to becoming a real force on the left.
The goals will keep coming and there is a lot more stretch in this team with regards to this. Santi is hitting form, Ox is soon fully back, Ozil can do better, Pod is raring to go again, Jack is starting to score, Ramsey is soon back, Bendtner might have turned a corner, Gnabry is showing real promise and Giroud will be back with a vengeance.
Yes, it would have been really nice to have Theo as well, but our strong core will see us through. The likes of Ox, Santi, Rosicky, Gnabry will fill the gap for us: plenty of competition!
Do you agree?
What is your core eleven?
Is our core eleven enough to win us the title?
Where would you strengthen the team if we could only get one player this January?
So, another terror/transfer window (TW) is upon us and just in time for the injury gods to strike down our own TW (Theo Walcott), along with the usual other collateral damage of the holiday season (Bendtner, Ozil, Ramsey, …. list until squad is finished).
However, like modern asymmetric warfare, terror, in this case the TW, and should we add an ! to that, TW!, is the solution. A chance to buy what you need, and loan out (metaphor for leave at the curb) that which you don’t. It sparks something akin to Christmas fever among otherwise sane adults who suddenly dream of that star ST, DM, CB, RB, … that might be “theirs” for just (insert large number of millions). All SQ of course! 🙂
So, we know right away that the TW! Is like a car. Put a normally sane person in one and you may well end up with a wild-eyed crazy person. This article is about adding some sanity and fun economics to ever growing lists of “what we need,” where just today I read an article that for just 7 new starters Arsenal will be solid for the rest of the year.
Seven!? That’s not a change, it’s a whole new team, kind of like Spurs this year, who have done oh so well with that plan!
Anyway, we all know the basics and have discussed them ad nauseum, but let us review so I can get my word count up:
Release clause: specifies the amount of money for which a player may leave, key point here, if they wish to. No car lot bargaining here, stump up and a willing player is yours. Imagine if the car could look at you and go “nah, I don’t think that he/she is my type of owner, …”
Available: an adjective describing the state of being open to offers. Often overused in the TW! To mean “desperately desiring”
Interest: a noun that means lightly intrigued in principle, but in a TW! It suffers inflation to mean “stalking and acting quite anti-socially weird”
All of which is to say that all wish lists are subject to a player in question being willing to leave if a suitable deal arrives and they have a release clause, as well as a team being willing to part with that player for a price if they don’t.
Lesson 1: Embrace Reality: It’s all well and good to say “get XXX” and all his friends, but if he isn’t interested in Arsenal or moving just now, or his team won’t sell then … This is despite the fact that all supermodels desperately want me, even now, which is to say,
à It helps to see the world as it is rather than how you may want it to be.
Lesson 2: Strength from Scarcity: If a hundred SQ strikers were all available due to the simultaneous collapse of the Spanish, Italian and several other economies, then getting a good deal would be easy. Alas, never true when you need it! Scarcity is what drives prices in the TW! Scarcity, and fear of missing out on a one chance opportunity. How do you beat scarcity? You look for weak teams or those who need money, or who need something else even more. AW knows this, and has basically said so, good economist that he is, and we see it every game that Santi and Nacho play. And Ozil, and many others who were bought for needed money when the time was right. Players entering the last year of their contracts, forcing teams to cash in before losing them on a free, in effect reverse scarcity, which is to say create desperation for the team, by their desire to leave. At least towards the end of a TW!
à Need and player are only two elements, timing matters. Who are the teams that need something even more and have the player we want? How can we create a reverse scarcity with the teams we deal with?
Lesson 3: Marginal is of central importance: An economist will tell you that when the price of a good and its value are about equal, you are in an area where small margins of interest or need determine the final price. Another way to look at it is that lower priced, more available players who turn out to be great, with some input work usually, are a far better bargain then buying a star. For Ozil’s 40M how many youngsters and training years could we have bought. Figure TW and AR together didn’t cost that much. Hence, AWs preference for youth, it’s a better buy. If you can wait.
à It would indicate that buying now should be an act of desperation. If we consider Lesson 2 then, the real moral of this story is to find someone more desperate. With some SQ to spare. Who are those teams? Who is this year’s Malaga or Anzhi?
Lesson 4: Prices are optional: The price set is optional. I can charge you $100 for a coffee from my brand new espresso machine, and 17HT might pay it! But, if you have other options (see Lesson 2, or Lesson 1 if you are addressing my price), then I likely wont get many buyers after 17.
However, more interestingly, they thus reveal information. The price set in a release clause for example shows not only the players value to the team, but also the added value they derive from not losing him. A form of insurance if you will. Find a desperate team and you will find that the second price component comes down, and you have a Santi or Nacho for example.
à Use the quoted price (and total cost) to determine how much a team feels “not losing” a player is worth to them. Who are the teams with a player we want who can “afford” to lose them the most?
Lesson 5: Much of business is figuring out how to get a customer to pay more for the same thing: This is fundamental and to me denotes much of the TW! You’re at the movies and of course you get overpriced popcorn. It’s like $10 for a small, and immediately the perky teenager behind the bar says “Would you like the next size up (appears to be about 50% more) for another $1?” Whoa, really?!? What a deal… And so we grow fatter. But, that’s not it really. What has really happened is that you paid $1 (10%) more for about $0.01 (1 cent) more of cost. I.e. you just paid more for the same thing!
TW! time concentrates the market and its desperation, and thus we pay more for the same thing. Far more then if we had a more open market. That should clearly point out that the TW! benefits not teams, nor players, but agents and leagues who profit directly and, by the publicity of large sums for players in their leagues, indirectly.
Please don’t go on about how we can make it up in shirt sales. I agree, but, that money also goes towards infrastructure development, paying the person who sells you your tickets or keeps Arsenal player online so Gerry and I can watch the games. Like a bonus or a tax return you should save, you can, or at least should, only spend it once.
The real question is how to pay the same for the same thing. Something I think AW has been very good at over the years but, with all the other lessons above, requires patience, and a willingness to be creative. We didn’t *need* Ozil, but he was available for the “same” price when you compare his cost to Bale for example.
Now, before you leap on the “he’s a cheapskate, kill him!” wagon. This is not about being cheap. Our friends across the way at Spurs are the classic case of paying more for the same thing. They took £80-100M of Bale money and spent it on just about a whole team. That played the same. One 40M Ozil or similar might have been a better deal and a way of paying less for more. ‘Nuff said!
à How can Arsenal and AW buy more for less or the same price, rather then paying more for the same thing (or less if you buy the “Arshavin Corollary”)? To me it’s about being creative, need a ST, buy a DM and play different perhaps… How can AW be creative and still get Arsenal where we want to be at the end of the year?
So, just some thoughts to keep in mind when reading those wish lists and figuring out who we might want and who we might get. Consider them tools to use in analyzing what might really be going on.
Who’s really willing? Who’s desperate? Who’s “scarce” and who’s not? Are we being super-sized to pay more for the same thing? Should we care? Who’s the player we don’t need that will turn out to be the player we absolutely needed (keeping in mind another midfielder wasn’t top of many folks lists this past TW!)?
Bergkampesque 